There are a lot of rubbery (some plain wrong) numbers quoted when it comes to public transport use, and it seems that trains and train stations are among the worse offenders. Perhaps because the costs of maintaining, operating or expanding network facilities are so eye watering, the promised benefits need to be overstated?
Let’s start with some context. Pre covid, there were around 1.5
million people with jobs in the South East Queensland region. Of that, around
120,000 were located in the CBD and this grows to around 200,000 including
inner city locations.
Of the 1.5 million workers, around 60,000 to 70,000 people used a
train as part of their journey to work. Nearly all of those people – 84% in
fact – board or alight at one of the six current inner-city stations. The
busiest was Central Station (roughly half of the station traffic) with around
33,000 people but numbers drop quickly to second place Roma Street (roughly
9500) and Fortitude Valley (nearly 5000).
Fast forward to some of the promised traffic volumes associated
with the new CBD stations being delivered as part of Cross River Rail. Overall
rail passenger numbers are generally forecast to increase massively. As
Engineers Australia observed in a 2017
submission: “The average daily user demands stated in Section 4.2 of
the Request for Project Change report equate to a level by 2026 of 208% of the
2015 levels (equating to an average annual growth rate of 6.9%pa over that
11-year period), and a level by 2036 of 289% of the 2015 levels (equating to an
average annual growth rate between 2026 and 2036 of 3.3%pa).”
The Cross River Rail website claims the new Roma Street station
will handle a surprisingly precise “46,320 users per day by 2036.” The same for
the new Albert Street station, officially predicted to have 67,260 users by
2036.
If it were true that 67,000 users were to use the Albert Street
Station and 46,000 will use the Roma Street Station, that would be equivalent
to 113,000 users, or around 95% of today’s total CBD workforce, or almost
double the number of people who currently (pre covid) use the entire City Train
network.
It is probable the term “users” actually refers to total traffic
volumes, not individuals. The Cross River Rail website isn’t clear on this but
on this basis, you would roughly halve the predicted station “users” to get to
the number of individuals, because most people arrive in the morning and leave
in the afternoon using the same transport mode (the one individual ‘uses’ the
station twice in the same day). This would mean these two stations would be
serving maybe 56,000 people daily. But that is still a very big number; close
to the total number of people using the entire rail network in 2016, and just
from two stations. Either way, the projections appear optimistic, particularly
given recent trends.
Public transport tends to be very much a CBD thing. Across South
East Queensland, according to this Queensland
Government publication, total mode share of public transport is 20%. That’s
for trains, buses, ferries etc. A further 76% use the private car. For the CBD,
public transport mode share rises to 76% and only 21% use private car. This is worth keeping in mind because public
transport’s ability to relieve congestion is highly correlated to the number
and proportion of jobs in the CBD. The numbers have been relatively stable and
the proportion is falling as the economy changes.
The predictions for station numbers could assume heroic growth in
CBD job numbers by 2036 but this seems unlikely: CBD job numbers have been
growing at only around 1% per annum (2011 to 2016) while suburban jobs have
been growing at twice that rate (largely due to rapid growth in health and
education).
And yes, our population has grown and is forecast to
increase substantially in years ahead but has this automatically translated
into higher rail passenger numbers? It would seem not. Ten years ago Central Station
had 33,000 people using it daily. According to a special data run by a friend
in the industry, that number in September 2019 (pre Covid) had fallen to around 28,500. Then there’s been the impact of Covid, which
has seen CBD station numbers drop by 30% on pre Covid levels, and inner city station numbers drop by
35% (June 2021 compared to June 2019). Too many people have not returned to
work, and too many of those who have are choosing different means to get there.
This in a state which has escaped lengthy “stay at home” orders arising from
Covid.
The long-term impacts are unknown at this stage but some
things seem probable. CBD job numbers appear unlikely to grow quickly for the
foreseeable future. If many choose to continue to work from home for even one
or two days a week, that will reduce overall demand. Plus, there may be a
continuing hesitancy about use of crowded public transport networks. Meaning the
promised numbers for station traffic will need to be treated with extra
caution.
On the flip side, there is no doubt the addition of new,
contemporary stations in the CBD will add value to the appeal of train travel
and overall network performance. The new stations will enrich and enliven the
precincts in which they are located. More frequent services and more
conveniently located stations are a good thing for CBD workers who can use the
train.
For suburban workers who cannot use the train for their
intra-suburban work trips (which account for more than 80% of all jobs), it’s
not so good – especially if your trip includes having to cross one of the many rail
level crossings. More train services will mean more time with the boom gates
down, meaning more congestion and longer journey to work times, until these are
fixed.
