tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-76942428676178256592024-03-14T11:49:11.187-07:00The PulseThe Pulse is a monthly opinion piece covering issues from housing to demography and the economy. Views expressed are personal and do not represent my employer.Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.comBlogger176125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-68504430852194931062024-01-30T14:56:00.000-08:002024-01-30T14:56:08.939-08:00Rapid population growth - and its consequences<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ8DZ8y8Ip3oagLCjeslf12RmLQXZdHi7Exvc6IMZ6ac46o_4Kjr5oBNFyUc4Y_v6NTpwNfVaCi27eCSTNvH4yMsv1MsZRQrFhui6FBdaN2RcPx85Zg_aEiNqDKgmNY-Y7pAVGJGOyooqxjwpIiCNSgoV4_7M4l2iZujB_d4ot3NEEuC-RiopytizzYe3q/s450/train1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="253" data-original-width="450" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ8DZ8y8Ip3oagLCjeslf12RmLQXZdHi7Exvc6IMZ6ac46o_4Kjr5oBNFyUc4Y_v6NTpwNfVaCi27eCSTNvH4yMsv1MsZRQrFhui6FBdaN2RcPx85Zg_aEiNqDKgmNY-Y7pAVGJGOyooqxjwpIiCNSgoV4_7M4l2iZujB_d4ot3NEEuC-RiopytizzYe3q/w400-h225/train1.gif" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i>“Rapid population growth – at rates above 2 percent,
common in most developing countries today – acts as a brake on development. Up
to a point, population growth can be accommodated… but the goal of development extends
beyond accommodation of an even larger population; it is to improve people’s
lives. Rapid population growth in developing countries has resulted in less
progress than might have been – lost opportunities for raising living standards,
particularly among the large numbers of the world’s poor.”</i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">That’s an extract from a 1984 <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/306fe81a-4820-5d41-88b7-4fcb2ee1410f/content">World
Bank report</a> “ The Consequences of Rapid Population Growth.” It defines “rapid”
as growth above 2 percent and its focus was on developing countries. Advanced
economies were not trying to grow populations at the same speed as those of the
third world. Except for us. South East Queensland – promoted by growth boosters
as a “hotspot” – is growing at 2.2%. Sydney and Melbourne, while larger and growing
numerically by more, are growing by around 1.5% per annum for comparison.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Unrestrained growth has many supporters in the big end of
town. But the consequences of rapid growth – fuelled mainly by record immigration
under Federal Government policies – are being felt acutely by many more others.<o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcTSW8WMusX0ec7WXo_Gf1kp_J406QJXOw40fOIyhgIDe6HllfxQKfgkKjZHk_Ww-ZrcoyOgthWRziE4UFGRsPtaPEOX_19yEBFbt82u8E61hrhUVguDMrqeupkqyI6b_kFyyldYWxzLFwnYw5C5yQ5S7psatsTKRRaAcBcre57jObHM1z4gAKIMgRNJMU/s586/Picture1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="397" data-original-width="586" height="271" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcTSW8WMusX0ec7WXo_Gf1kp_J406QJXOw40fOIyhgIDe6HllfxQKfgkKjZHk_Ww-ZrcoyOgthWRziE4UFGRsPtaPEOX_19yEBFbt82u8E61hrhUVguDMrqeupkqyI6b_kFyyldYWxzLFwnYw5C5yQ5S7psatsTKRRaAcBcre57jObHM1z4gAKIMgRNJMU/w400-h271/Picture1.png" width="400" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal">Source: <a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2024/01/australia-hits-peak-immigration/">Australia
hits peak immigration: Macrobusiness, Jan 2024.</a></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p>The most obvious evidence of these adverse consequences is
the current housing shortage. We simply are not building enough homes, fast enough,
to accommodate these levels of rapid growth “hot spots.” Worse, new housing
approvals are <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/new-housing-approvals-crash-to-lowest-level-since-june-2013-amid-warnings-housing-crisis-will-worsen/news-story/e97ca1d2caf6e5d6d5401d0216382d35">falling
to record lows</a> at a time of record demand growth. Rapid rises in interest
rates, construction industry supply chain issues, trade shortages, regulatory
burdens …. choose your explanation from a wide variety of options. They all
mean the same thing: more demand than there is supply. Oddly, the “housing
crisis” has been pigeon holed as a supply problem only. Few talk about the law
of “demand <i>and</i> supply.” It seems it’s now just the law of supply.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The focus on housing shortages and people without homes is
one thing. It is also leading to excessive costs for those with roofs of their
own – whether rented or being purchased. <a href="https://www.proptrack.com.au/insights-hub/capital-city-rents-surge-13-in-2023-as-regions-flatline/">Rents
are surging</a> and vacancies falling, causing significant cost of living
pressures for the third of our society who rent, while those with recent mortgages
are similarly stretched. As a result, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/feeling-the-cost-of-living-crisis-charts-reveal-who-s-getting-off-lightly-and-who-s-suffering-most-20231221-p5et1u.html">consumers
are cutting back</a> on spending across a range of discretionary items. So
where demand growth exceeds supply, costs increase – leading to consumer cut
backs. There’s an adverse rapid growth consequence few talk about. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Other rapid growth consequences are far less discriminatory.
In January, large parts of South East Queensland suffered power outages during
a period of intense heat. The heat was nothing out of the ordinary for a
Brisbane summer, and it wasn’t (we are assured) the energy grid that failed due
to generation shortages, but local infrastructure which couldn’t cope with
demand (air conditioners, mainly). Policies of accommodating an increased
population via increased population density have been around for a long time.
But policies to upgrade local infrastructure to support those local density increases
haven’t. The “density is destiny” mantra - parroted for more than 30 years - has
almost entirely been around population and housing: little has been said about the
wider infrastructure consequences of putting more people in the same space. As the
World Bank noted 40 years ago, the objective of growth should be to improve
people’s lives, not worsen them.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Hospital shortages are another obvious sign of rapid growth
consequences with <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/queensland-ambulance-ramping-just-getting-worse-says-ama-20231118-p5ekz5.html">ambulance
ramping times increasing</a> as the hospital system is stretched by rapid
increases in demand. Hospitals are expensive things to build or to expand, and
they take a lot of time to build. Keeping pace with rapid population growth is
a Sisyphean challenge.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Schools will also soon be a telling pressure point. I reflected
on a possible <a href="https://thefingeronthepulse.blogspot.com/2022/04/a-looming-schools-shortage.html">looming
schools shortage</a> nearly two years ago. On latest population projections for
South East Queensland, there could be another 500,000 school age kids looking
for classrooms. We either move to much bigger class sizes or build new schools.
Independent Schools Queensland (non-government and non-Catholic) estimates the
need for a new P-12 school of 1000 students each year for the foreseeable future,
just within their network. Finding sites within urban growth boundaries won’t
be easy. Vertical will probably be the answer but that’s a lot more expensive
than traditional lower density designs. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Congestion is another obvious adverse consequence of rapid
growth. Mostly we are using the same roads and transport networks that
supported a population of half our current size. We are now looking at doubling
that population again within another 20 years, all getting around on (largely)
the same network. Local Governments do what they can, but <a href="https://alga.com.au/policy-centre/financial-sustainability/current-financial-arrangements/">with
only 3.6% of taxation revenue</a> (the Federal Government, responsible for population
via immigration, collects 82% of tax revenue) their ability to fund and manage
transport infrastructure needed for a rapidly growing population is severely
constrained. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Water shortages will also emerge: more people require more
water to drink, wash clothes, fill pools, and so on. The same water infrastructure
that comfortably supported a population half our size is simply not going to be
able to support a population double our size. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Two ironies emerge from all this. First, those voices most
loudly in support of continued rapid population growth are also those least
likely to bear responsibility for the consequences. Think apartment developer
Harry Triguboff: high growth helps demand for more apartments but he isn’t around
for discussions on hospital or school shortages, rising congestion, over
stretched energy infrastructure or water shortages. It’s also true that people
with financial security (high income earners) are best placed to insulate
themselves from the adverse consequences of rapid growth: they simply pay more,
where demand exceeds supply. Whether that is private health, private education,
well located real estate … money talks and buys your way out of problems if you
have enough of it. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The other irony is that the density mantra was originally
intended to make use of under-utilised urban infrastructure, most typically in
inner urban areas which were at risk of “hollowing out” (as happened widely in
the US). With falling inner urban school enrolments, for example, it made sense
to increase the local density to make better use of existing infrastructure
than build entirely new infrastructure on urban outskirts. But that’s no longer
true. A new vertical school in an established urban area targeted for more
density is vastly more expensive than a “traditional” build; retrofitting below
ground infrastructure (sewer and water) in existing locations is more costly
than in new areas; apartments are more expensive to build than detached houses;
building tunnels (whether for public or private transport) below existing areas
is a great deal more expensive than surface networks in new areas… and on it
goes. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In adopting the density model to accommodate rapid increases
in population, we have now not only committed to a more expensive urban form, but
one that also takes longer to deliver. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Hardly the formula for enhancing standards of living in a
rapid growth scenario? Surely we either moderate our rates of growth, or we
adopt new models? Or, as the Planning Institute has sensibly suggested, we
adopt a <a href="https://www.planning.org.au/planningresourcesnew/national-settlement-strategy">national
settlement policy</a> that ties the Federal Government – whose immigration policies
are driving record growth – to the local consequences of that rapid growth.</p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-12615601490306087522023-12-03T16:59:00.000-08:002023-12-03T17:06:21.680-08:00We need to get off this magic roundabout (it's going nowhere)<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTzo_Ba99Bj2lAb9bxCLITTPMPo3Doa7vS9pUnHITDyqeQQAglj1saoRP8amSO4SVfxHftvEKd7rab3K0vFoqyiq9EYXC0UIDkMi-wlesJpf4au-wq1jPUcD-K14wm_QHkGTUEKxHenJJPauOGBiACigpb-dv8WkV6gVI6_-9smlpNFM1bSmraE-79pAAc/s400/magic%20roundabout.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="400" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTzo_Ba99Bj2lAb9bxCLITTPMPo3Doa7vS9pUnHITDyqeQQAglj1saoRP8amSO4SVfxHftvEKd7rab3K0vFoqyiq9EYXC0UIDkMi-wlesJpf4au-wq1jPUcD-K14wm_QHkGTUEKxHenJJPauOGBiACigpb-dv8WkV6gVI6_-9smlpNFM1bSmraE-79pAAc/w400-h300/magic%20roundabout.gif" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p>Heavy commuter rail is a frequently mentioned “solution” to
congestion. But just as frequently, it is revealed as horrendously expensive to
build, expensive to operate and seemingly incapable of moving the dial on mode
share: that is, it doesn’t succeed in getting many cars off the road.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Explosive cost blowouts are all around us. In Melbourne, the
proposed “suburban rail loop” was promoted by then Premier Andrews as costing
$50billion. It was later revealed the cost has already <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/victoria-s-suburban-rail-loop-will-blow-out-to-more-than-200b-report-20220818-p5bavl">ballooned
to four times</a> the original estimate to $200billion – which exceeds the
entire state debt of Victoria. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">In Queensland, the Cross River Rail was persistently
promised to be delivered for a fixed $5.4 billion but it is understood to be
over budget by $1 billion at around $6.3 billion. It’s hard to work out what
this includes as related works like yards are understood to be under separate budgets.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Then there’s the <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/taxpayers-slogged-extra-24-billion-for-flagship-train-manufacturing/news-story/b8b21ac1b5042b0706980e190345ec6d">Queensland
Train Manufacturing program</a>, which was originally budgeted at $7.1 billion but
which is now estimated at $9.6 billion – a blow out of $2.4 billion. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Add to that the Logan and Gold Coast Faster Rail project,
which duplicates lines over an 18klm section of the network with station
upgrades and better alignment. That was to cost $2.6 billion but has <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/mark-bailey-queensland-news-opposition-for-sack-over-rail-project-cost-blowout/0d32d7b4-2e03-4874-b726-6f6e81654044">now
been revealed to cost an estimated $5.75 billion</a> – an increase of $3.1
billion, more than double the original costs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Prior to all this was the new Moreton Bay Rail line to Kippa
Ring, a new 12klm line with 6 stations which opened in 2016 at a cost of $1.15
billion – roughly $100 million per kilometre. That almost looks cheap compared
with over $300 million per kilometre just up upgrade the Logan-Gold Coast line.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Undeterred, we are now also canvassing a <a href="https://www.sunshinecoastnews.com.au/2023/08/08/fast-and-reliable-direct-rail-line-details-revealed/">new
37 kilometre line from Beerwah to Maroochydore</a>, with perhaps 7 new stations
and a tunnel section. No costs for this yet and its fate is hard to determine.
But if we used the per kilometre upgrade cost for the Logan-Gold line, and
multiplied that by 37 kilometres, we could easily be looking at a project costing
$12 billion. My bet is that an initial estimate will come in closer to $20bn BB. ("BB" = before blowout). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Are your eyes starting to water? Worried about where the
money is coming from? Maybe consoling yourself that this is all necessary to
support transport infrastructure in a growing state and to “solve” congestion.
With better and more train services, loads of people will happily give up their
cars and use public transport, and all this is supported by rigorous business
cases which are readily accessible by members of the taxpaying public. No? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Here are some numbers for context.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The population of the greater urban conglomeration of SEQ
(Greater Brisbane plus Sunshine and Gold Coasts, Ipswich and Toowoomba) was 3.6
million people (2021 Census). Of that number, 1.58 million went to work –
somewhere. 280,000 worked at home. How many of the 1.58 million caught a train
or light rail as at least part of their journey to work? Only around 44,000. The
2021 Census was taken in the midst of Covid so an unfair year to sample train
travel. The comparable figure from the 2016 census was around 64,000 people
catching a train. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">With Covid behind us, passengers are returning but are still
at <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-20/seq-public-transport-patronage-rises/102876796">only
around 80% of pre pandemic levels</a>. Because rail people like to use trip
numbers (which are much bigger numbers to talk about given just one person can
generate more than 10 trips in one week) direct comparisons with actual numbers
of people are hard to find. But if you assume current passengers are around 80%
of the 64,000 pre pandemic, there might be around 55,000 people using a train
to get to work in South East Queensland today. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Why do more people not catch the train? And will all this
investment mean it becomes a more attractive proposition? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Sadly, heavy commuter rail for Australia is battling against
a changing economic geography and a changed society. An “all roads lead to Rome”
centralised economic model (much like mega Chinese cities, or mega centres like
NYC or London) can work for heavy commuter rail. But in our region, only around
10% of jobs are in the inner city, for which rail is well suited provided you
can access a station with convenience. The greatest growth in jobs is not in the
inner city, but across suburban centres. These are not typically serviced by
rail.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitk-d5YT28UGRijqVnDrkdj761GffAjBEoCDnAjtS1dMlCWlfiGQUCGSLXBjCERh-NNO2qQ_0Bo5wDnPGOWNsjnfhJEL1RdGJfiROwQhMTyqsBZ7jx3PG3ZXoGaCJAawYWEhtNgDph-TIdbZYhs1TmiSiFjU1nf_imqIYkZCBXIoXrpSJEGfiP1Rq3xoGd/s893/Picture1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="681" data-original-width="893" height="305" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitk-d5YT28UGRijqVnDrkdj761GffAjBEoCDnAjtS1dMlCWlfiGQUCGSLXBjCERh-NNO2qQ_0Bo5wDnPGOWNsjnfhJEL1RdGJfiROwQhMTyqsBZ7jx3PG3ZXoGaCJAawYWEhtNgDph-TIdbZYhs1TmiSiFjU1nf_imqIYkZCBXIoXrpSJEGfiP1Rq3xoGd/w400-h305/Picture1.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Little wonder then that there is a high correlation between
proximity to the CBD and use of public transport. Why? Because people who live
in middle and outer suburbs do so because they don’t work in the CBD. People
with jobs in the CBD prefer to live closer to it, and are also more likely to
use a service which is CBD centred. It’s not rocket science.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">(As an aside, proposals by The Greens to make public transport
free would therefore most benefit inner city residents who already earn higher
incomes and own more expensive real estate. And who work in the CBD. It will be
of no benefit to lower income suburban workers who would in all likelihood need
to pay for it via higher taxes). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitYMPWVVLEdH_6xI_K2CdqyoKOGY2GF0m9MiRyRM-vJQOxIxP-zYwEb6WWDJ5nxhUe0_eXq4Hg2P-z1DTpv0566v0OrG_7rXuW_DlImBRetH2stZy5NzMEcBKfjNXtJiI5HvgAYYM18rI4wrLzfVQAT-yjdago11GWrCjBVZJ7tgzqnPssY6_jvqK_Vrtt/s602/Picture2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="286" data-original-width="602" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitYMPWVVLEdH_6xI_K2CdqyoKOGY2GF0m9MiRyRM-vJQOxIxP-zYwEb6WWDJ5nxhUe0_eXq4Hg2P-z1DTpv0566v0OrG_7rXuW_DlImBRetH2stZy5NzMEcBKfjNXtJiI5HvgAYYM18rI4wrLzfVQAT-yjdago11GWrCjBVZJ7tgzqnPssY6_jvqK_Vrtt/w400-h190/Picture2.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Plus, once those tracks are in the ground, the wires
overhead and the stations in place, there’s no changing that route - ever. Irrespective
of how demand and economic geography might change, you’re stuck with that
network. Buses and projects like the Metro can be re-routed, but not heavy
rail.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">In addition to that is social change. Trains are fixed
route, schedule-based services. They were suited to a time when the trip to
work did not involve any side trips and you scheduled your trips around the train
timetable. For many, those trips now change every day – dropping kids to
school, picking up from sport, gym classes, shopping for groceries… any number
of reasons why a fixed route, fixed schedule service doesn’t appeal to as many people
as it once did. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">You might think the basic numbers and reality is sinking in?
Not it seems with any number of economically illiterate politicians who offer
nothing more than glib phrases and vague promises about “congestion busting”
while proposing projects that are budget busting, and supported without transparent
business cases due to “commercial in confidence” reasons. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So we are spending tens and perhaps hundreds of billions of
dollars on a mode of transport which is best suited to a minority of inner city
workers, and which currently carries fewer than 100,000 people in the region, and
which, despite spending many many billions more, is possibly unlikely to carry many
more people in the foreseeable future. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Who wins in this? Loads of consultants doing multi million dollar
business cases which will never be put up for scrutiny, sheltered industries and
work practices, and a very small number of commuters who will get better
service at the expense of a majority who won’t. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbV7hyphenhyphenoZ8bUZmlLy4YM_df206yv0LmP7DltdZqH3EwnT_Ra6ib_sqnoeGR0YvFBRm5nOVr05A0rQddiEhJF6dD96a7IXBxG7VYzpDL7qQAMKpEhW-5s3kGl1l69GTUkiGhEvnLmNQbSAegmVA0DR9Pa0m94q9wW8bVXHmg-N56JVLdny-AxEjaTwl0SFI1/s836/make-it-stop-498-x-298-gif-18kzd1knmsixx7oi.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="836" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbV7hyphenhyphenoZ8bUZmlLy4YM_df206yv0LmP7DltdZqH3EwnT_Ra6ib_sqnoeGR0YvFBRm5nOVr05A0rQddiEhJF6dD96a7IXBxG7VYzpDL7qQAMKpEhW-5s3kGl1l69GTUkiGhEvnLmNQbSAegmVA0DR9Pa0m94q9wW8bVXHmg-N56JVLdny-AxEjaTwl0SFI1/w400-h239/make-it-stop-498-x-298-gif-18kzd1knmsixx7oi.gif" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span><p></p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-39123372136389783942023-11-19T16:52:00.000-08:002023-11-19T16:52:24.307-08:00The government giveth, and the government taketh away<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQR3my72q-V-D22VKiFIvrhSgsSJEhJgwsbmYUKGGpB0EPQuky3urqVUbYEnmyGJAQzDkaOcYAK_UtVgQ25YTCBufIjIJjAR0Y5rH4KtbrQjejgMiF2NodkLZeuqS5xzD658ptPmgmD-J2wD1hfLkIXl698f08MtrUrvTnK_Vo8IbXqXZw60W7M02_iwMH/s602/news.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="339" data-original-width="602" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQR3my72q-V-D22VKiFIvrhSgsSJEhJgwsbmYUKGGpB0EPQuky3urqVUbYEnmyGJAQzDkaOcYAK_UtVgQ25YTCBufIjIJjAR0Y5rH4KtbrQjejgMiF2NodkLZeuqS5xzD658ptPmgmD-J2wD1hfLkIXl698f08MtrUrvTnK_Vo8IbXqXZw60W7M02_iwMH/w400-h225/news.png" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Much of the news media lapped up the surprise announcement that
Queensland will double the first home buyer grant to $30,000, effective immediately
as of the weekend. The new grant, which applies only to new builds of up to
$750,000, is intended to help stimulate supply rather than boost the overall
market. To that end, despite being what economist <a href="https://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/queensland/qld-firsthomeowner-grant-to-double/news-story/cc32533480f2856173a059a9c4db45a7">Saul
Eslake has labelled “bullshit”</a>, I can see some merit in it. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But what the media and many commentators seem to have missed
is that while the government giveth, it also taketh away. Only recently, there
was a proposal to introduce changes to the National Construction Code in order
for new homes to meet higher energy efficiency standards, along with increased accessibility
standards. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Those changes were estimated by Queensland Master Builders
to add – wait for it - $30,000 to the cost of a new home.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">"It's the first homebuyers who are most impacted, who
are struggling to get a deposit together, to make the repayments, and then the
cost of construction goes up," <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-29/national-construction-code-make-home-builds-more-expensive/101380672">Master
Builders CEO Paul Bidwell said</a>. "$30,000 is a significant
amount."<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Yep, it sure is. The same amount in fact as the increase in
the first home buyer grant. Other estimates suggest the code changes could add up
to $70,000 to the cost of a new home. There was a predictable outcry from industry
– which argued increasing the cost base at a time of worsening affordability
especially for new home buyers who are typically younger families was a very bad
idea. The outcry won and the introduction of the code changes has been deferred
to May 1, next year. So as of May next year, the increase in the first home
buyer grant will be cancelled by the increase in code compliance costs, if not
outweighed by them. Savvy first home buyers will want to get in before that happens.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But there’s another reason the proposed construction code
changes are a seriously bad idea: they will impact most the people who can least
afford it, and make little to no difference to household energy or water consumption,
because it only applies to new builds and not to the established market, which
is responsible for nearly all domestic energy and water consumption. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">There are around 2 million dwellings in Queensland. At present
we are building around 35,000 new dwellings each year. So that’s just 1.75% of
stock that will affected in year one, rising of course the more years it’s in
effect. But who is driving that 1.75% of the market? 60% of these starts were houses
and the balance units. We know that new detached houses are some of the
cheapest forms of housing, and are typically favoured by younger families on
lower incomes. Apartments, especially in this market, are expensive to build
and that market is drifting quickly to the wealthy end (a new mid spec two-bedroom
apartment now needs to sell for over $1 million for an apartment project to be
viable). Who do you think is going to be more impacted by a $30,000 cost
increase?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">As ideas go, can it get any worse? Yes it can! And the
reason is because the biggest consumers of household energy and water are not
the young families living in detached homes but the wealthy – irrespective of
whether it’s a detached home or apartment. Because the wealthy more typically
congregate around inner cities, this is also where the greatest excesses of energy
and water consumption are. Don’t take my word for it: this was proven some
years back in a <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/auscon/pages/1433/attachments/original/1477284331/res_Atlas_Main_Findings.pdf?1477284331">study
by the Australian Conservation Foundation</a> in conjunction with the University
of Sydney. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">“Inner cities are consumption hotspots” the report declared:
<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">“… despite the lower environmental impacts associated with
less car use, inner city households outstrip the rest of Australia in every
other category of consumption. Even in the area of housing, the opportunities for
relatively efficient, compact living appear to be overwhelmed by the energy and
water demands of modern urban living, such as air conditioning, spa baths, down
lighting and luxury electronics and appliances.”<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Back in 2007 I was running the Residential Development
Council and we commissioned a report to investigate this in detail. <a href="http://www.demographia.com/RDC_ACF_Greenhouse-Report.pdf">“Housing form
in Australia and its impact on greenhouse gas emissions”</a> was the result. Lots
of graphs to explore if you’re interested but this one helps tell the story:<o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUV5_QYuJvuowRHEIoE0Im1qHVPMz4x-zaDinFEKDJ3ieKq1VHg7PH-6EfCldyrO0lzNmPByhclazBW7s38rAbGYhvikSbjqMPiw5_79BqCjFVXqiA3cj6Rw135VtcWAkQGKn3IUJTjvzO3rygtGBhUHwOL5HI2OsQNsD6-A2CNENmqSt4OZhA2JbfTjP_/s656/graph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="493" data-original-width="656" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUV5_QYuJvuowRHEIoE0Im1qHVPMz4x-zaDinFEKDJ3ieKq1VHg7PH-6EfCldyrO0lzNmPByhclazBW7s38rAbGYhvikSbjqMPiw5_79BqCjFVXqiA3cj6Rw135VtcWAkQGKn3IUJTjvzO3rygtGBhUHwOL5HI2OsQNsD6-A2CNENmqSt4OZhA2JbfTjP_/w400-h300/graph.png" width="400" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Think it through. The wealthy inner-city resident in their
$2m plus town home or apartment has no access to a hills hoist to dry their
clothes, and is unlikely to worry about leaving the lights on when not in a
room, or running the air con on a semi-permanent basis. Long showers are not a
problem either. They can afford it.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So how can an increase in energy code requirements that will
most affect lower priced homes favoured by young families on lower incomes make
any discernible difference to the biggest energy and water wasters? It won’t.
By applying only to new builds and ignoring the majority of the market, particularly
those households in established dwellings in inner urban areas, this is a
highly distorted and regressive policy which ultimately favours the inner urban
wealthy and penalises the suburban working- and middle-class families. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">If we were genuinely concerned about reducing household
energy use, we’d wake up to the fact that buildings don’t consume the energy or
the water: it is the habits of the occupants that drive that. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So celebrate while you can the increase in the first home
buyer grant because from May next year it’s going to be worth nothing thanks to
new energy codes for buildings which don’t even touch the biggest energy
consumers but which will make new detached homes for families even more
expensive, for no environmental gain. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCYPP-H8M7q1QM7OQavFmPuCfyFijeUJy7zFiyFeBy6cFt8ApPYbTtqX1GChzEvpNxOGH18FpY1H9HI2N24JNxgkDDHUjLy11f5qs441oe1fiRlpuI1yDKeqfmzXzoeiMdilPQ2JP4LVwmtuK0uexAh9mxTthEfehB1nU6ZLWAlKo43I6G8_venWfp01A7/s342/george.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="273" data-original-width="342" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCYPP-H8M7q1QM7OQavFmPuCfyFijeUJy7zFiyFeBy6cFt8ApPYbTtqX1GChzEvpNxOGH18FpY1H9HI2N24JNxgkDDHUjLy11f5qs441oe1fiRlpuI1yDKeqfmzXzoeiMdilPQ2JP4LVwmtuK0uexAh9mxTthEfehB1nU6ZLWAlKo43I6G8_venWfp01A7/s320/george.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span><p></p><div><br /></div>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-22648188360374288012023-09-06T00:16:00.003-07:002023-09-06T00:20:54.035-07:00 The great urban mobility challenge<div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4djgy9HdMB7GXJFW3SXih0eIHHlWo04czXjinB7ZyMxJKury5e0UhIrhcCtpq0nWyU3F85Y1REkmo8hrafZH1ypmWcP9iRGeO1RbMNIZa7Ixt-J-cfXe8BOssRZJ3sH2GjncImpzlgOcXN4jJWSW1NidzW5eb-8QbXihMxruUTF5g_hxfUKQhVRCWZjAZ/s1000/Picture1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="787" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4djgy9HdMB7GXJFW3SXih0eIHHlWo04czXjinB7ZyMxJKury5e0UhIrhcCtpq0nWyU3F85Y1REkmo8hrafZH1ypmWcP9iRGeO1RbMNIZa7Ixt-J-cfXe8BOssRZJ3sH2GjncImpzlgOcXN4jJWSW1NidzW5eb-8QbXihMxruUTF5g_hxfUKQhVRCWZjAZ/w315-h400/Picture1.jpg" width="315" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium; text-align: left;">Each major Australian capital city is faced with predicted population
growth of millions more people within just the next 25 years. In Brisbane it’s
over 1.5 million more, Sydney will cop another near 4 million and Melbourne
over 3 million more people. Here’s a scary fact: at current rates of cars to
people, Brisbane will also have another 1 million more cars, Sydney will have
around 3 million more and Melbourne around 2 million more. Unless we ban personal
ownership of cars, what are the future choices we need to be thinking about,
now?</span></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Before we run through a list of the various options, first a
challenge: whatever the “solution” to an imminent urban congestionastrophe, let’s
try agree that whatever succeeds needs to provide a personalised mobility
solution: it needs to be available on demand (there when I need it), offer
infinitely variable routes (takes me where I want to go and when I want to go,
which differs every day), and can carry my stuff (from groceries to whatever).
Ideally it’s also expandable (can carry more than one person when I have
someone travelling with me) and offers good range and rapid recharge/refuelling.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Sounds a lot like a personal car doesn’t it? This probably
also explains why they have proven so successful in meeting community needs. But
what are the other options in the future? Here goes…<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Shared car ownership.</b> It’s been touted as something
of a solution to car ownership but doesn’t seem to address congestion so much.
Plus, things like Goget (car sharing app) have struggled. Perhaps having one
parked in our garage, ready and waiting, is still just too convenient?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Passenger rail.</b> The great hope of many but, in my
opinion, never to repeat its historic 19<sup>th</sup> and 20<sup>th</sup> century
popularity. The routes are fixed, the overhead wires are fixed, the stations
are fixed, and the schedules fixed. It struggles to serve the realities of
modern life with multiple trips and different routes daily. It isn’t convenient
for carrying our stuff and mostly suits the 9 to 5 centralised office worker
market, which is shrinking globally. The <a href="https://thefingeronthepulse.blogspot.com/2022/02/is-suburbias-global-benchmark-share-of.html"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">average
CBD share of metro wide jobs for a city in a modern western economy is around
13%</span></a> - and that was before the ‘work from anywhere’ thing started to take
off post Covid. It actually carries very few people (just <a href="https://profile.id.com.au/australia/travel-to-work"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">10% of work trips</span></a>
across capitals in Australia using pre-covid numbers from 2016 – the 2021 journey
to work numbers being Covid affected) and is frightfully expensive – especially
underground. At over $100million per kilometre on surface, you’d struggle to
find a more expensive and less popular mode of travel. Worldwide, infrastructure
projects with massively blown budgets and under performing passenger numbers
often feature passenger rail (except China, where everything is different).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Buses</b>. Not as popular as rail (5% of passenger in
Australia capitals) but more popular than trains in Brisbane - possibly because
they service a wider variety of routes using the road network? Buses can be
re-routed with ease and bus stops are low capital intensive investments. But
they are still not “on demand” or offer personalised routes, nor are they very
convenient for doing the shopping. They have been around a long time but the
mode share has stubbornly not moved much. Unlikely to do so in the future
either.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Metro.</b> Trackless trams or metros are a modern
solution which may gain a lot of support. They don’t require permanent rail or
overhead wires, they are electric, and potentially autonomous. They provide a
higher level of comfort than buses and can be rerouted using the road network
if needed (all of which makes them much cheaper than trains). They can also
turn corners (which trains struggle with) plus in Brisbane they are promised as
a high frequency service (so no need to check a schedule). Metro stations are
more capital intensive than traditional bus stops, and like other public transport
modes, aren’t exactly the preferred way to do the groceries, visit the doctor
or get the kids to school. Still, in all likelihood, a big step forward in the
future.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPAu1JQ4_io3DaJy8KnIuDYDYh-XGS3QKXzOmwdtP94JZHQPhigqMefz88Qs_C9_-TETWs6R6NRu795j78om3GdvUc3gZC-07E9IQ1QgTHg81VPXCYTHkxFdqwprAU3g5DwSNaZExquCyTyFJehl5e5YngRYV93vT_ZU6O60VGq0xS_jRVexdZk3Qvv3ZL/s520/Picture2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="303" data-original-width="520" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPAu1JQ4_io3DaJy8KnIuDYDYh-XGS3QKXzOmwdtP94JZHQPhigqMefz88Qs_C9_-TETWs6R6NRu795j78om3GdvUc3gZC-07E9IQ1QgTHg81VPXCYTHkxFdqwprAU3g5DwSNaZExquCyTyFJehl5e5YngRYV93vT_ZU6O60VGq0xS_jRVexdZk3Qvv3ZL/w400-h233/Picture2.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Ferries. </b>“Believe me, my young friend, there is
nothing – absolutely nothing – half so much worth doing as simply messing about
in boats.” So said Ratty to Mole in Wind in the Willows. Ratty was right – a more
pleasant way to travel is hard to find. But when it comes to solving congestion
by providing a meaningful alternative to cars, ferries aren’t the go-to choice.
They are confined to water ways for starters. And they don’t usually go near
shops or schools. They are expensive to operate and maintain (ferries need terminals
and require a lot of maintenance) on a per passenger basis. The lucky few who can
make use of these on a regular basis can count themselves very fortunate.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Cycling & walking. </b>Fun fact:<b> </b><a href="https://profile.id.com.au/australia/travel-to-work"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">three times as many
people walk to work</span></a> (3.2%) as bicycle (around 1%).<b> </b> The <a href="https://www.atap.gov.au/mode-specific-guidance/active-travel/2-key-characteristics-of-active-travel"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">numbers
on active transport</span></a> are an interesting read. Active travel works for people
when their jobs are close to where they live. Any more than a few kilometres
away though, and walking or cycling drops right down. Hint to urban planners:
don’t segregate future housing from future work places and you might see more
active travel. On the downside though, climate (too hot, too cold, too wet or
too unpredictable) are factors difficult to overcome. It’s also difficult to
carry your shopping bags any great distance (unless you steal the supermarket
trolley which the visual evidence says happens a lot). Unlikely to ever make a
big dent in urban congestion, however appealing the idea. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Uber buses</b>. Yet to gain a lot of traction here are <a href="https://www.uber.com/en-EG/blog/discover-uber-bus/"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Uber buses</span></a> – a way
of tailoring schedules and routes to users. It’s working overseas and I witnessed
a non-tech version in Vanuatu a few years ago (the bus driver asked where you
were going and, based on where all passengers were going, worked out the route
from there). The Uber bus is typically a smaller bus which varies routes and
schedules around user demand. Sounds great in theory, provided they don’t
cancel on you, or hit you with a surge. The technology platform that makes this
possible ought to be something public transport agencies look into further. Will
it bust congestion? Unlikely, but with support it could make an impact.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzGPjCTFJ1jfooh0zObpScRLys53_WQhmkw5t60QOVXYNXhkMe6FBAd0gKta0FJGfntiYuQrRtpm6AMUpNnRVV2EnaX_yg1COsgo5imlmchQFUb5EiH80gYAlla7voY8SEJn3_TWGb3Zpt6LKFS32ZB-xBeEflqBaaABsqabwHrAX8n8pEbf7nj10iEBSw/s1211/Picture3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="681" data-original-width="1211" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzGPjCTFJ1jfooh0zObpScRLys53_WQhmkw5t60QOVXYNXhkMe6FBAd0gKta0FJGfntiYuQrRtpm6AMUpNnRVV2EnaX_yg1COsgo5imlmchQFUb5EiH80gYAlla7voY8SEJn3_TWGb3Zpt6LKFS32ZB-xBeEflqBaaABsqabwHrAX8n8pEbf7nj10iEBSw/w400-h225/Picture3.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Flying cars & taxis. </b>They’re coming, and I want
one! Brisbane has announced the promise of flying taxis by the time of the 2032
Olympics. Other cities will follow. The technology is proven and trials of
various personal flying cars are underway with some already available – if you
have the cash. One thing promoters haven’t counted on is Australia’s love of
regulation, and I fear that Federal aviation authorities will pose so many constraints
on operations in the sky that it will be decades before private users will be buzzing
around like George Jetson. As for parking one at your local shops… yeah, nah –
that just takes shopping centre parking to a third dimension!!!</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDkPK7uClfYVqDie0W3gNnnsRvuSfV7iROb7GrSLZ36fx4xvP8YQjY8nLk1lAejzBz6j7ThTgrKqxTwjh7qYGr_jPchcRuKT70jeW3LbvOJrBOpaiYAbnM-bstQAMav6SYMkW1DrA0m_Ri00lsfs90g5I5UYWZyWDRhZkGg_KzL1pJGFgMeSc1BNI92IwJ/s360/Picture4.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="240" data-original-width="360" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDkPK7uClfYVqDie0W3gNnnsRvuSfV7iROb7GrSLZ36fx4xvP8YQjY8nLk1lAejzBz6j7ThTgrKqxTwjh7qYGr_jPchcRuKT70jeW3LbvOJrBOpaiYAbnM-bstQAMav6SYMkW1DrA0m_Ri00lsfs90g5I5UYWZyWDRhZkGg_KzL1pJGFgMeSc1BNI92IwJ/w400-h266/Picture4.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Scooters & e-bikes.</b> Love them or hate them, there’s
no denying they’ve been rapidly adopted where they’ve been allowed. For shorter
trips they are brilliant. But they aren’t cheap to hire, and scooters are useless
for carrying anything more than the wallet in your pocket, and have the same
climate issues as active transport. Plus, regulators are introducing so many geofencing
limits that their appeal is being limited. However, privately owned e-bikes
that make use of extensive bikeway or active transport networks could
potentially see a rise in popularity – shopping baskets included. Provided the
lithium battery doesn’t burn your house down, these could be useful to have in
your garage.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLPryzJ7RgfhvWytzakut7Xqsei74abwqQ4IFJUKiV9DfRkAyTnlZkFd92qkE9c0_ffkLjip6xVjizXEc-ogNM1lxYmxwFo38OMxDIdQaAtVbYdhapT4gqYpodX2c9bnjValWo62gyO1ez_lVLp4ls-at7_I493kFVhMv5mO3We5OBdeHtSCFLUG4qezvn/s1282/Picture5.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="670" data-original-width="1282" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLPryzJ7RgfhvWytzakut7Xqsei74abwqQ4IFJUKiV9DfRkAyTnlZkFd92qkE9c0_ffkLjip6xVjizXEc-ogNM1lxYmxwFo38OMxDIdQaAtVbYdhapT4gqYpodX2c9bnjValWo62gyO1ez_lVLp4ls-at7_I493kFVhMv5mO3We5OBdeHtSCFLUG4qezvn/w400-h209/Picture5.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: bold; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-weight: bold;">Autonomous, electric vehicles. </b>This is a serious
proposal, being explored by leading institutions and thinkers including my
friend <a href="https://d.docs.live.net/081f0f421537ba5c/Documents/Imagine%20how%20self-driving%20vehicles%20and%20derived%20mobility%20services%20might%20impact%20every%20aspect%20of%20life%20in%20the%20future.%20From%20how%20and%20when%20we%20move%20about%20and%20how%20we%20design%20cities,%20to%20how%20we%20enhance%20environmental%20sustainability%20with%20this%20technology.%20As%20we%20approach%20this%20new%20era%20in%20urban/suburban%20planning%20and%20transportation,%20can%20we%20develop%20models%20and%20guidance%20that%20will%20help%20us%20address%20issues%20such%20as%20congestion%20and%20affordable%20universal%20access?"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Prof
Alan Berger from MIT</span></a>, and the Toyota Mobility Foundation. To quote
from the Toyota Mobility Foundation: “Imagine how self-driving vehicles and
derived mobility services might impact every aspect of life in the future. From
how and when we move about and how we design cities, to how we enhance
environmental sustainability with this technology. As we approach this new era
in urban/suburban planning and transportation, can we develop models and
guidance that will help us address issues such as congestion and affordable
universal access?” The beauty of the work that people like Alan Berger are doing
is that they realise real solutions involve a lot more than magic wands and
glib sayings like “get people out of cars.” They involve the redesign and retrofit
of urban and suburban domains – from housing to work to physical and digital
networks. If you’re genuinely interested in exploring some advanced thinking
(it’s not a big club) start with a look at<span style="color: #2b00fe;"> <a href="https://www.alanmberger.com/next-generation-suburbs#7">https://www.alanmberger.com/next-generation-suburbs#7</a></span>
and also <a href="https://toyotamobilityfoundation.org/en/research/suburban/"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">https://toyotamobilityfoundation.org/en/research/suburban/</span></a></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZgFDl737N21B6D8_0968x6w4_9SWo0ho1g7PCAR48yBTm3xRlQHSClHriml580EHEu4FOttBAP_MXwxht9PG1D2T2jW2ggYanHjQP-PCBch8E5KxAJbOX33wKS6YolE7Jc8wY3OEp1zWb-qFh1p49BbsAIWz_zeEEnjkg1oSgZ8BDZzDd3j3n1TPxnSc9/s602/Picture6.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="389" data-original-width="602" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZgFDl737N21B6D8_0968x6w4_9SWo0ho1g7PCAR48yBTm3xRlQHSClHriml580EHEu4FOttBAP_MXwxht9PG1D2T2jW2ggYanHjQP-PCBch8E5KxAJbOX33wKS6YolE7Jc8wY3OEp1zWb-qFh1p49BbsAIWz_zeEEnjkg1oSgZ8BDZzDd3j3n1TPxnSc9/w400-h259/Picture6.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">As for me, I think the maths is undeniable. Millions more people
will mean millions more cars (for now) so it will get a lot worse before it
gets better (if it does). Which is why you’ll continue to find me on the one
form of transport that’s ready when I am and is able to sneak through traffic
snarls while bringing a smile to your dial. And if it rains? A small price to
pay.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Keep the rubber side down!</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi53dXazA1M2WidOhGliZbuUElK6V-__7UvTS705XZCul81vHQKCtgfl54O6ogk-RYQSRyv-Qv8Etmz0sbWf4JAvhraLoMWULFa4-jEx01iy_D2aGuUjArBJzhSIBV5GV4Mg4JiRvEFMF8i-zYY00jg0e6XcSCt0Yb8bKPGXta45klLceokvkjnFv12esJR/s1265/Picture7.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1265" data-original-width="840" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi53dXazA1M2WidOhGliZbuUElK6V-__7UvTS705XZCul81vHQKCtgfl54O6ogk-RYQSRyv-Qv8Etmz0sbWf4JAvhraLoMWULFa4-jEx01iy_D2aGuUjArBJzhSIBV5GV4Mg4JiRvEFMF8i-zYY00jg0e6XcSCt0Yb8bKPGXta45klLceokvkjnFv12esJR/w265-h400/Picture7.jpg" width="265" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><br /></p></div>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-50711097000249148162023-08-06T23:24:00.002-07:002023-08-06T23:31:33.714-07:00Population growth: context in a few critical graphs<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_M_LMYgBAdjgn-UtcOk-G8j_QHfPls2JuS5U64cYulDfse9fbjHnuYyyfnyp68pyUHzSVAvKaGrbPPpHWkUsVwAwRsCiN9ypJVndQFDv8TNSp_NErgX2dXHm4I0i2Cl-SV-J43t2M678VLdQicMUBGrv4p6dKIAgc4e-kFcpaaBOfFMM8lGh7iaBz5it_/s498/people-how-facial-expressions-help-robots-communicate-with-us.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="280" data-original-width="498" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_M_LMYgBAdjgn-UtcOk-G8j_QHfPls2JuS5U64cYulDfse9fbjHnuYyyfnyp68pyUHzSVAvKaGrbPPpHWkUsVwAwRsCiN9ypJVndQFDv8TNSp_NErgX2dXHm4I0i2Cl-SV-J43t2M678VLdQicMUBGrv4p6dKIAgc4e-kFcpaaBOfFMM8lGh7iaBz5it_/w400-h225/people-how-facial-expressions-help-robots-communicate-with-us.gif" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Population projections that talk of very high growth are welcomed by some parts of the business community and many governments. Others warn that the numbers and speed of growth will fast outpace our ability to provide the necessary social and other infrastructure required to maintain the quality of life that attracted people in the first place. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Rarely though does either side of this discussion provide some context to numbers so that we can arrive at our own conclusions. With that in mind, here are some graphs and comparisons that might help. You can draw your own conclusions. </span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>(CLICK ON ANY OF THE GRAPHS TO ENLARGE)</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiV9qgYF2Et-g9FqIS6jlf1Y3xmIhq3uaKqzUoZR0JMTjQDwNqkgdMs8J8b2CKXRzd4EuNdmGGmIid1xM4pqTQlplxQBewyznw3SMdzWXzSQom-2R_OXPmOZ1G3uX2rRYtexHt3_kfLEJOWI5-Mri5LNzetLS6jtijlRN5ekwUs3h2CyG41IHMx1CNKOzQt/s883/Picture1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="883" data-original-width="721" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiV9qgYF2Et-g9FqIS6jlf1Y3xmIhq3uaKqzUoZR0JMTjQDwNqkgdMs8J8b2CKXRzd4EuNdmGGmIid1xM4pqTQlplxQBewyznw3SMdzWXzSQom-2R_OXPmOZ1G3uX2rRYtexHt3_kfLEJOWI5-Mri5LNzetLS6jtijlRN5ekwUs3h2CyG41IHMx1CNKOzQt/w326-h400/Picture1.png" width="326" /></a></span></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This graph (above) shows a range of global cities often mentioned as comparison cities in discussions about Australian urbanism. It’s a random selection and not exhaustive. It shows that the predicted population increases for Australia’s largest cities are generally on a par with or exceeding the growth of these cities – nearly all of which are much larger in total population than Australian cities. The exception is Tokyo, which is shrinking.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCEsls1iAy0VgA3AgBgJh8cTzGOHZ_fZAOez4uyCsTXboHE64MtYR1KnXfeWv3qq6f3oKrGFL2uJjM0EmvwzMHWg_EFpEsTolgoAHXhaASDA7K46nMUnsGl8eHfRxOgWAPqt-Y7uY7TevLeoneDmWyYDsv-gBkXQeVhhea8UgKuRXonO7hKyP_0vb7ggWS/s883/Picture2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="883" data-original-width="721" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCEsls1iAy0VgA3AgBgJh8cTzGOHZ_fZAOez4uyCsTXboHE64MtYR1KnXfeWv3qq6f3oKrGFL2uJjM0EmvwzMHWg_EFpEsTolgoAHXhaASDA7K46nMUnsGl8eHfRxOgWAPqt-Y7uY7TevLeoneDmWyYDsv-gBkXQeVhhea8UgKuRXonO7hKyP_0vb7ggWS/w326-h400/Picture2.png" width="326" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This is the same data but this time showing the increases in population as a percentage rather than as a raw number. In this comparison, the percentage increases predicted for Australian cities are several times that of these advanced western cities. This graph is helpful to show the speed and scale at which a city’s population is predicted to grow. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOuTvUxbg2-Ziarhqg18uAgWX_Ornal3nw6ngr8qpZcC-g9EINia6Ubr7DXKjmIQeDfPUBY8o__Fo0istrRus8zaGNsUGl9iIhyOjSp3viF5tBfjC0VxK975U4ApnfO0Ui_Ja1GQwEp4hYV9zHNAPHH254ZVJwpjff9r0nQEA3UgsERx0qMhZnXFRhMnKZ/s885/Picture3.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="885" data-original-width="721" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOuTvUxbg2-Ziarhqg18uAgWX_Ornal3nw6ngr8qpZcC-g9EINia6Ubr7DXKjmIQeDfPUBY8o__Fo0istrRus8zaGNsUGl9iIhyOjSp3viF5tBfjC0VxK975U4ApnfO0Ui_Ja1GQwEp4hYV9zHNAPHH254ZVJwpjff9r0nQEA3UgsERx0qMhZnXFRhMnKZ/w326-h400/Picture3.png" width="326" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In this graph, for comparison’s sake, I have added in some mega cities in developing parts of the world such as India and Africa. Much of the world’s growth in population will come from the sub-continent and from Africa. India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country. The African population will surge. Lagos in Nigeria, for example, will grow by 17 million people in the same time our cities grow by between 2 and 4 million. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuAPCHIGG8e60zeoePBNdqFZNMqpJnRwWwi8cg2rRouEUV-7Bu2T2CodPZBQ3VFXZPUn8aArnsHtaULBKiqAPqlgtWe3vz27r-7bxdY6oi1jp3kaH_pOYWm3cQV0E_bx-PNm5nrU5qm1rl5HjesxKya1o4Pp6Yvmog-2fmXCeeLDzSHEXodU6NaBwBxj97/s885/Picture4.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="885" data-original-width="722" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuAPCHIGG8e60zeoePBNdqFZNMqpJnRwWwi8cg2rRouEUV-7Bu2T2CodPZBQ3VFXZPUn8aArnsHtaULBKiqAPqlgtWe3vz27r-7bxdY6oi1jp3kaH_pOYWm3cQV0E_bx-PNm5nrU5qm1rl5HjesxKya1o4Pp6Yvmog-2fmXCeeLDzSHEXodU6NaBwBxj97/w326-h400/Picture4.png" width="326" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Looking at these growth rates as percentages however shows that the rate of growth in Australian cities is equal to or near to the rate of growth of Delhi, Mumbai and Lagos. There are some very obvious differences in housing, social infrastructure, quality of life, regulatory and governance frameworks and a range of other metrics which makes our cities very different from these. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHZlCs43MYo8KakVHbEChrBNt5HiF4hIwXQ8O24ERtVuO-ncOIWwvjyx95Xi2C1ObDnIXLT3J778V7gKtV7NB1_sNAU4CSSaBfqZDEeWryD6QwB8JR0RJCCc0xCB9MdEBdbvzNeBMKLXozFK793LId8JeyDzQHI3EzDUw7nEF-s7lxZUcJYNinkxJMImVn/s1326/Picture5.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="883" data-original-width="1326" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHZlCs43MYo8KakVHbEChrBNt5HiF4hIwXQ8O24ERtVuO-ncOIWwvjyx95Xi2C1ObDnIXLT3J778V7gKtV7NB1_sNAU4CSSaBfqZDEeWryD6QwB8JR0RJCCc0xCB9MdEBdbvzNeBMKLXozFK793LId8JeyDzQHI3EzDUw7nEF-s7lxZUcJYNinkxJMImVn/w400-h266/Picture5.png" width="400" /></a></span></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Let’s now look at Southeast Queensland. The latest revision of the SEQ Regional Plan includes some updates of population projections together with some forecast job increases (which are promised to be reviewed). Putting the population and jobs growth into the same graph allows us to see that there is an apparent imbalance between areas that are predicted to grow the most in terms of population, but which are not anointed with comparable jobs growth. This will invariably mean that more people will need to commute greater distances for work than if jobs were provided closer to where they are expected to live. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJao2w1aO5xmNj4vonEQA9T27UvCQXAUzNutzSuZV4VxL1vDMpGZ-KeVOgeZERqKHScFjw-LNwF1eO-xKlwhuHLMwU_6XZ2r3M0JWO5qTyp1vgO3ctVKK5MU0biC5-TxCxZTovoeh7Pi6ercu15E0g8axwGAe0UjlEDxenOL0ih4vNYyCwkT3B1pxTXPLh/s846/Picture6.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="751" data-original-width="846" height="355" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJao2w1aO5xmNj4vonEQA9T27UvCQXAUzNutzSuZV4VxL1vDMpGZ-KeVOgeZERqKHScFjw-LNwF1eO-xKlwhuHLMwU_6XZ2r3M0JWO5qTyp1vgO3ctVKK5MU0biC5-TxCxZTovoeh7Pi6ercu15E0g8axwGAe0UjlEDxenOL0ih4vNYyCwkT3B1pxTXPLh/w400-h355/Picture6.png" width="400" /></a></span></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">A closer drill down into the detail comes from the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office, which released detailed population projects in June 2023. This graph shows where within the inner city of Brisbane the population is expected to change, and by how much, in the 2021-2046 period. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAW1sXgBzbOklHlD2DhCoWo57B5829zi59vL6Z9q2z1UgyfOzIPtq9JiIwqa7WVxxcyqlvE4r6U677kTu6pTQ3zGZl2KyFn3UtWBP9Zzf-kCW_H-hp8fWrKNe4UKN_F018jnBuYC_rWNZ9ZkZv0625uvLFRe8ubGWYBV-3Ptb2k6sGEtEF2w4BRdjr7KNz/s852/Picture7.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="751" data-original-width="852" height="353" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAW1sXgBzbOklHlD2DhCoWo57B5829zi59vL6Z9q2z1UgyfOzIPtq9JiIwqa7WVxxcyqlvE4r6U677kTu6pTQ3zGZl2KyFn3UtWBP9Zzf-kCW_H-hp8fWrKNe4UKN_F018jnBuYC_rWNZ9ZkZv0625uvLFRe8ubGWYBV-3Ptb2k6sGEtEF2w4BRdjr7KNz/w400-h353/Picture7.png" width="400" /></a></span></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This is the same graph but showing the percentage increases. This graph is helpful to understand the speed and scale of growth by small area. The CBD (Brisbane City) for example is expected to grow by 160%, while other areas will more than double. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitxHitNYxaF94Omf16eWX_dXsTWCKcyycfo6nXRt7vm3IU2NvFFvFJfZiLm30Imyy4FVoo6_nDjn_lHqRY4PSnT7erxmiJWLlewz9H_zd-KlP8xRrzg3b0zAcfahMb2WJ6YPgZoC6q7Dk2QJ01S2FsfVh6Q5wcvOK0mFtrH4mE--MGjNMRA8sCKAi9S6Sy/s942/From-Brisbane-River.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="942" data-original-width="683" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitxHitNYxaF94Omf16eWX_dXsTWCKcyycfo6nXRt7vm3IU2NvFFvFJfZiLm30Imyy4FVoo6_nDjn_lHqRY4PSnT7erxmiJWLlewz9H_zd-KlP8xRrzg3b0zAcfahMb2WJ6YPgZoC6q7Dk2QJ01S2FsfVh6Q5wcvOK0mFtrH4mE--MGjNMRA8sCKAi9S6Sy/w290-h400/From-Brisbane-River.jpg" width="290" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This is an image of 443 Queen Street – which when completed will provide 264 apartments. If we allow a modest 10% vacancy rate (apartments locked up by owners and not available for letting), and multiply the balance by a conservative 1.6 people on average per apartment (we are told there will be many more single person households so there could be less than 1.6 in the future), that gives a total population for this tower of 380 people. With Brisbane’s CBD predicted to grow by 22,500 people (see graph above) that means we will need the equivalent of 60 more of these in the CBD for those predictions to have effect. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh094M3xtfXTGp9hQ4es6A4e2XFTu7ojzIQF2IA7OnLsARBczkwxYIhSfov_ia5I_O1XTJQV46HskWeNJZsFUQy7GqsRo8-OjB6uH1HXEGeTX6iPSWGnt45_BMrUtu5cdQFmfll_Ws20Dw99E6uv1xTd0lg5RJLITq7rV1inyTDa2hnvRHslFe-J3Rw3OGa/s1527/Picture9.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="918" data-original-width="1527" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh094M3xtfXTGp9hQ4es6A4e2XFTu7ojzIQF2IA7OnLsARBczkwxYIhSfov_ia5I_O1XTJQV46HskWeNJZsFUQy7GqsRo8-OjB6uH1HXEGeTX6iPSWGnt45_BMrUtu5cdQFmfll_Ws20Dw99E6uv1xTd0lg5RJLITq7rV1inyTDa2hnvRHslFe-J3Rw3OGa/w400-h240/Picture9.png" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><p>Last one! Here are the regional population predictions for 2021-2046. This graph shows the forecast increases in population by region. I have added a couple of lines to show how these predicted increases compare to the current populations of Rockhampton and Ipswich, just for context. </p></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">So, what did you conclude? Some will be excited by the infrastructure challenge. We need not only houses, but schools, hospitals, libraries, water, energy, roads, parks and open space and more. Plus workplaces of course. And protection of the environment. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Others will worry that, if we struggle to find houses for people and with tent cities popping up around the region, we should slow this rate of growth. Longer hospital wait lists, growing school class sizes, rising congestion, environmental pressures – these could be some of the things we should try avoid they will say. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Others again will question the numbers themselves. Some of these predictions seem to lack a reality check. Can we even find, for example, sites for 60 more towers like 443 Queen Street in the CBD? Let alone what many of the other numbers will require in terms of sites for housing, for schools, workplaces, hospitals, and the rest across the region. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">It’s important that predictions like those contained in these numbers are fully understood for context and impact. More than anything else, they will reshape the regions and cities in which we live. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">They are however just predictions based on public policy settings and expectations. They are not fate. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><div><br /></div>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-80246329250203682722023-07-02T16:44:00.000-07:002023-07-02T16:44:20.613-07:00Do you see what I see? (Many would see an empty office. I see a future classroom).<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0_nAmhB9ZvQfsYKjj9B0lpr1EqiWiypy_IV8ppcNTpe5259GvR6zm6VLYr4IlGlemfMEurF6zboKJJLtxyS7weT-pjnfLbWMKpsD7PEqAiUGoGx-_iFBlLCPqguWTiGTjMVeUKs6eVS7efgwFxWCcMQsIxc4nrkrPPHHByaVR1Xnth-mpS9v2CFFbtBe-/s464/Picture1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="307" data-original-width="464" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0_nAmhB9ZvQfsYKjj9B0lpr1EqiWiypy_IV8ppcNTpe5259GvR6zm6VLYr4IlGlemfMEurF6zboKJJLtxyS7weT-pjnfLbWMKpsD7PEqAiUGoGx-_iFBlLCPqguWTiGTjMVeUKs6eVS7efgwFxWCcMQsIxc4nrkrPPHHByaVR1Xnth-mpS9v2CFFbtBe-/w400-h265/Picture1.png" width="400" /></a></div><p>G<span style="font-family: verdana;">lobal markets are actively exploring how to repurpose now empty office buildings, as the post covid impacts of work from home and distributed employment take their rising toll. Typically, it is the older style office buildings which are most affected. Owners of premium office property compete more aggressively for premium, large-scale tenants who still want the high performance CBD workspace, while the lower graded buildings are often rendered uncompetitive. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Conversion of office buildings to residential is something being explored in markets from Manhattan to San Francisco to London and also here in Australia, but there are a multitude of challenges in converting floor plates designed for office workers using shared facilities (such as toilets) into multi-tenanted apartments each with their own facilities. These challenges have more merit in markets where housing is blisteringly expensive (think Manhattan or London) but even there, the conversion costs are significant and, in many cases, insurmountable (much depends on the building itself).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">But as our cities hurtle toward the addition of over a million new residents, there’s a conversion opportunity which to me makes a lot of sense, and one which could be achieved at lower conversion costs. Think schools. Here’s why. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The latest Queensland Government Statistician’s projections for population growth mirrored those for many of our major cities: a lot more people, in a short space of time. For the Brisbane region alone, their medium series predicts an additional 1.2 million people by 2046. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwNoNkNypRBaid2g6B3zPnP8ENKDfMqssLPizK9RgZHGM2mI81e9JNDpwkUzNecoe43nPrvIxdli_NxJdpype-38McUUthgK1gdLyG7QN5lLNfNYbLmHJUfe491Yc6HzVqU8zese74VFEwiJFXJzezUu0urymjmL98wxlU166J-W8rWbaiaSfwPHFx8BxC/s444/Picture2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="434" data-original-width="444" height="391" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwNoNkNypRBaid2g6B3zPnP8ENKDfMqssLPizK9RgZHGM2mI81e9JNDpwkUzNecoe43nPrvIxdli_NxJdpype-38McUUthgK1gdLyG7QN5lLNfNYbLmHJUfe491Yc6HzVqU8zese74VFEwiJFXJzezUu0urymjmL98wxlU166J-W8rWbaiaSfwPHFx8BxC/w400-h391/Picture2.png" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">That figure includes an increase of 630,000 children in the 0-14 age group and while the QGSO notes this cohort will reduce as a share of the overall population (due to our ageing profile), the increase of 630,000 kids is a number that will need to be accommodated.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">To keep the math simple, assume 500,000 of that cohort will be school age, and assume a typical school size of say 500 students (averaging across independent schools which can be smaller and state schools which are typically larger). There’s perhaps 1,000 new schools required.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Where will they go? These projections are for the Greater Brisbane area. The predictions for where growth in the school age population will occur within Greater Brisbane vary. In the Brisbane City Local Government Area (LGA) for example, there’s only a predicted increase of 6,610 in the 0-14 year age bracket. (Which is still 13 more schools). </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMEQfRCX3ue4GKOdad4i4kP7w6SHILBZXVq2qxqXj_IZHgHE0mHQGZ98gylBS9dQmRMXi2Gsx7m4hOMAwTA1VRMvCkBPZokPO0Ebbz9Mw2GZLBUBl8A-sn5Gzam-iDjmj2i-m-2vxi5lsGNZVuHNFrROvqjQ-6bLc5A41J0VrC29Z7ODb9fWwv6ziP2vp7/s556/Picture3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="292" data-original-width="556" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMEQfRCX3ue4GKOdad4i4kP7w6SHILBZXVq2qxqXj_IZHgHE0mHQGZ98gylBS9dQmRMXi2Gsx7m4hOMAwTA1VRMvCkBPZokPO0Ebbz9Mw2GZLBUBl8A-sn5Gzam-iDjmj2i-m-2vxi5lsGNZVuHNFrROvqjQ-6bLc5A41J0VrC29Z7ODb9fWwv6ziP2vp7/w400-h210/Picture3.png" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In Moreton Bay, the increase in school age children is predicted to be much higher – at nearly 40,000. And in Logan, the increase is nearly 30,000. That’s a lot of kids and a lot of space to find for a lot of schools within the urban footprint. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMBL2OuQLJtvyEf3FsnZ-B6svTMuS-c3icStbo5vG_75farjMTV6T1DKXDpugePLEtIEwEB7PtRL4nH7hXgs1xBZnmpmPReDflk-aiGjEpEkIfM3UaIxJ8Szp3o1ETB1S1UvB_ISA-V2wTmslN1U6kYnFz4BSJuUXxeiCctw_Lqt1xhfbQ3xDE-gBQVv3Z/s557/Picture5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="295" data-original-width="557" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMBL2OuQLJtvyEf3FsnZ-B6svTMuS-c3icStbo5vG_75farjMTV6T1DKXDpugePLEtIEwEB7PtRL4nH7hXgs1xBZnmpmPReDflk-aiGjEpEkIfM3UaIxJ8Szp3o1ETB1S1UvB_ISA-V2wTmslN1U6kYnFz4BSJuUXxeiCctw_Lqt1xhfbQ3xDE-gBQVv3Z/w400-h211/Picture5.png" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuQcE2vfkna_XTL73AmZbU8CkjfYik4pAOtD5_rRJMPNbFnAt73nNIA1n2jbnnaX6cKIqgxjjVL_2SAK0itXJXsAUxGAbXjd53LnlnyiUkzxfFUbVLeihczFKzCrcrIKb3jqMvgj-LPyTt62zCi41SVGs6zYgbLp7sioubtMwwmhwlFCkIuFOXqi5hKGh2/s564/Picture4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="290" data-original-width="564" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuQcE2vfkna_XTL73AmZbU8CkjfYik4pAOtD5_rRJMPNbFnAt73nNIA1n2jbnnaX6cKIqgxjjVL_2SAK0itXJXsAUxGAbXjd53LnlnyiUkzxfFUbVLeihczFKzCrcrIKb3jqMvgj-LPyTt62zCi41SVGs6zYgbLp7sioubtMwwmhwlFCkIuFOXqi5hKGh2/w400-h206/Picture4.png" width="400" /></a></div></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The challenge is greatest for areas which are largely built out, but where density is increasing. How do you infill new schools? There just aren’t large chunks of land of several hectares ready to accommodate new schools with sports fields in areas already urbanised. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Back to our repurposed office building scenario. Australia is only starting to get used to the idea of vertical schools, but they’ve been around for a long time. This (below) is picture of the primary school I attended in Hong Kong (where I was born and raised until end of year 6). As I am now officially old, this was obviously a long time ago. The school though, like me, is still standing. Year ones were on level one, year twos on level two, and up it went. (Fun fact: Michael Hutchence of INXS attended this same school at the same time. He was three years older than me, so a couple of floors up). On the roof was a canteen and caged in play area. On ground there were play areas in under crofts, and a couple of basketball courts. No grass. We shared an oval up the road with multiple other schools, each allocated their timeslot. Somehow I managed to finish primary with an education which was possibly two years ahead of what I did in year 7 at primary school in Australia (Kenmore State). The lack of open space didn’t impact my education. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCWqUVo5UH2IhwvXZ8yHlMCu2R-ox051IoqH4IVG7qSWOnsY29Pz7VgJ0EjV9IUXqLANgcrg2Achx6G6OyLDWYgwRKGxs2dAsEa-1VVhNN8vA4kv0PfAVy_PI311Zei7pQvCu0H5hZoXun5ZOWBqVrzii-a41Hia-jbNT7uB1iD0JJfgOqVHH02bF_hQr1/s1142/Picture6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="872" data-original-width="1142" height="305" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCWqUVo5UH2IhwvXZ8yHlMCu2R-ox051IoqH4IVG7qSWOnsY29Pz7VgJ0EjV9IUXqLANgcrg2Achx6G6OyLDWYgwRKGxs2dAsEa-1VVhNN8vA4kv0PfAVy_PI311Zei7pQvCu0H5hZoXun5ZOWBqVrzii-a41Hia-jbNT7uB1iD0JJfgOqVHH02bF_hQr1/w400-h305/Picture6.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In terms of building size, schools are fairly hungry users of space. Have a look my school in Hong Kong for example. Here in Australia, schools of several hundred students need roughly 10,000 square metres of floorspace. Some, like Brisbane’s new vertical Fortitude Valley State Secondary School, are closer to 25,000 square metres gross floor area (it was designed for up to 1500 students and cost $100m to build). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Now, tell me how many single tenants you’re aware of with a requirement of potentially 10,000m2 to 20,000m2 and who need long term leases, and you might see where I’m going with this. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">But why would a school want to occupy an office building in a CBD?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Location is one reason: the CBD is probably the best served in an entire region by public transport – of all forms. That centrality also means the school could be accessed from all points of compass, meaning its physical catchment could be city wide – it isn’t restricted to just one side of the city. Keep in mind that schools have traditionally been based on local catchments: back in the day, kids used to walk or cycle to school. On their own! Now, parents seem prepared to drive some distance to drop little Johnny or Mary at the school gate. Local catchments are becoming less of a consideration, especially in the non-government sector. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Lack of available sites for new schools is another driver. When you simply don’t have the space in infill suburbs, what do you do? Following a well-established trend that is decades old elsewhere in the world by putting schools in central locations is a logical option. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Schools seem to benefit most from proximity of students with each other and with their teachers. Remote learning is unlikely to take off in the same way as remote working, so office buildings which offer that proximity advantage make sense. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Building design is also amendable for school use. Similar to offices, education is primarily a day use function. Shared learning spaces, shared toilets and shared facilities. Fire, building and other relevant codes that are designed for a comparable intensity of floorspace use. (Remember offices at one point got to just 8m2 per person!). No planning reasons why not, and in terms of accreditation by education authorities, potentially easier than some alternatives. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Entire floors could be dedicated to physical education – soft-fall but enough room for half courts for basketball, soccer, gymnastics etc. If outdoor sports is essential, buses take students and coaches to nearby parks and playing fields – just as they do elsewhere in the world. It’s very feasible. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This idea logically suits secondary grade office buildings, and those closest to transit hubs (train and bus) will rate best. Conversion to education use will depend on the building and the needs of schools, but will be less costly than office to residential conversion in most cases. If you are faced with the option of building a new vertical school for $100m+ (provided you can find a site) versus buying and refurbishing an existing CBD office building for less, the sums on the surface at least look interesting. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This could also better suit secondary as opposed to primary schools: we seem too protective of our primary school age kids to consign them to school buses or (gasp!) catching the train, but for secondary school age children, catching a train or bus from your suburban home into the city for school is no different to what office workers have done generations before. The entire CBD infrastructure is designed around this hub and spoke model. If there are fewer office workers needing to make this journey now, then why shouldn’t students take advantage of generations of investment in public transport networks, and the amenity offered in the CBDs? Plus, there’s nothing quite like education to activate a space. And CBDs need activation. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Sure, this isn’t something that will be seized on by multiple schools quickly, but I have no doubt it will happen. It’s already started in fact. You would be surprised at the number of non-government secondary or special needs education establishments already occupying former office space in and around our CBDs. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">If a city region is planning to absorb 1.2 million more people (as is Brisbane) in a relatively short space of time within existing urban boundaries, it needs to do much more than talk about just housing. There’s a need for workplaces, for health facilities, and a need for schools (amongst a very much longer list). In our case, potentially 1,000 new schools. Some of that demand will result in much bigger schools in existing locations, and much larger class sizes. And some of that demand might just find its way to a CBD building or two. It only takes a small number of schools to potentially generate demand for tens of thousands of square metres of space. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">It’s something worth investigating. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-67402433283278319122023-06-07T22:20:00.004-07:002023-06-07T22:20:56.669-07:00No Noddy, you and Big Ears won’t solve housing with a tiny house<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGfH43Ckc6a0nVjzSeOFtvhZdZpFjHY45VyZs4-dwJ0YbexFtkAIwvifOLZ4d0isX-Oxm2Z8Z03n_ZjWrxgacVp8zP2REzW9reCPWt5zA0Adacxw0Nus6gLYHalCuFOG79pva11XxZLkYgTgOkg_P5zVR7OKCItYD1wfyhBWE5lK_jQE1MWWD-8lgAWA/s465/Noddy%20house.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="465" data-original-width="360" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGfH43Ckc6a0nVjzSeOFtvhZdZpFjHY45VyZs4-dwJ0YbexFtkAIwvifOLZ4d0isX-Oxm2Z8Z03n_ZjWrxgacVp8zP2REzW9reCPWt5zA0Adacxw0Nus6gLYHalCuFOG79pva11XxZLkYgTgOkg_P5zVR7OKCItYD1wfyhBWE5lK_jQE1MWWD-8lgAWA/w310-h400/Noddy%20house.JPG" width="310" /></a></div><span style="font-family: verdana;">One of the more infuriating ideas that seems to have more
followers than it deserves is the notion that “tiny houses” are part of the solution
to the housing affordability (and availability) challenges being faced in large
Australian cities.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">“Tiny houses” are variously defined, but Wikipedia offers a useful
description: <i>“The tiny-house movement is an architectural and social
movement that advocates for downsizing living spaces, simplifying, and
essentially "living with less." According to the 2018 International
Residential Code, Appendix Q Tiny Houses, a tiny house is a "dwelling unit
with a maximum of 37 square metres (400 sq ft) of floor area, excluding
lofts." The term "tiny house" is sometimes used interchangeably
with "micro-house". While tiny housing primarily represents cheap,
simple living, the movement also sells itself as a potential eco-friendly
solution to the existing housing industry, as well as a feasible transitional
option for individuals experiencing a lack of shelter.”</i><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Think Gypsy wagons. Alluring as the description is, the tiny
house promise of being eco-friendly and low cost ignores one very inconvenient truth:
the land on which it sits and the services provided to that land – if they meet
the bewildering array of standards and regulations – are anything but low cost
(or even eco-friendly). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">This was dramatically highlighted by some <a href="https://www.colliers.com.au/en-au/research/cost-per-lot">recent research</a>
from the engineering team at Colliers (who acquired Peak Urban). According to their
research, which is based on cost estimates for around 6,800 lots and 3,400 in
construction, across seven regions in South East Queensland, the civil
construction cost <b>per lot</b> is now $157,833. This is 37% more than their
2021 estimate.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirPOQnKOhAs9A6ZMWZko11iQm7F80P9zBJcxKHXPZ6ZssmnstEvJzZWt0MnXI2GTVHv3sl6lxNcNO2T0CJiaVFvg7RLjHUihRWgBQenVFgepRjsnIoB5FcT_p3Y6YPBel25JGlqOmTfF1x6ixX8h8K9BhuMXUKOsytFKUcLoEBbfZ1bbUtxqciRcvuIg/s602/graph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="401" data-original-width="602" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirPOQnKOhAs9A6ZMWZko11iQm7F80P9zBJcxKHXPZ6ZssmnstEvJzZWt0MnXI2GTVHv3sl6lxNcNO2T0CJiaVFvg7RLjHUihRWgBQenVFgepRjsnIoB5FcT_p3Y6YPBel25JGlqOmTfF1x6ixX8h8K9BhuMXUKOsytFKUcLoEBbfZ1bbUtxqciRcvuIg/w400-h266/graph.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Remember, this is just the civil infrastructure cost. It
does not include the raw land cost – it is just the cost of providing services
to that piece of land – water, sewerage, roads etc. Those services need to meet
increasingly higher standards which, combined with today’s market realities,
are driving the cost surge. According to the Colliers Report:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">“Increases in civil construction costs due to supply
constraints are the most obvious reasons for increased overall costs. However,
skilled labour shortages have meant that some businesses are paying overs to get
people (if they can get them), but it also means that it is taking longer to
get things done. Authorities are suffering the same, with some being forced to
contract works to external parties which further diminishes industries capacity
to keep up. It’s a perfect storm that is leading to higher input costs across
the board.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Ironically, some of the drivers of these costs relate to
standards which aren’t always the most eco-friendly or cost friendly. Arguments
against “out of sequence” land development, for example, usually revolve around
the roll out of trunk infrastructure (things like water and sewer mains, or
roads for example). The argument being that the trunk infrastructure must be
supplied in a sequential manner for cost reasons. Yet large scale off-grid infrastructure
options – water collection or waste water treatment for example – which can provide
environmentally superior and lower cost solutions, are often prohibited by
regulation. You are not allowed, for example, to use collected rain water for
anything but flushing your toilet or watering your garden. We have standards! And
your wastewater must be pumped many kilometres through expensive concrete sewer
pumps and energy hungry pump stations to reach a waste water treatment plant,
even though large scale localised treatment options are technically available and
environmentally superior. Once again, we have standards! Using recycled
materials for road surfaces? Standards again. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So back to our tiny house. The cost of bringing services to
the land on which it sits is now around $150,000. The land is also subject to a
per-lot infrastructure charge, and the developer who has generated the lots has
been subject to a range of taxes from land taxes to stamp duties to application
fees and other regulatory and compliance costs. Plus there’s the actual cost of
the raw land. You can see how the physical cost of a block of land – even one
as small as 400 square metres – is now starting at around $250,000 or $300,000 –
and that’s at the lower end (depending on location).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Then you get the pleasure of adding the house, which is also
subject to a range of compliance costs and taxes – including the GST. According
to the <a href="https://hia.com.au/our-industry/newsroom/industry-policy/2023/04/tax-reform-needed-to-address-housing-affordability">Housing
Industry Association</a> (2023):<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">“In 2019, the Centre for International Economics (CIE)
released a research report Taxation on the Housing Sector which identified the
costs associated with bringing land and housing to market and provided a
breakdown of these costs as either resource costs, regulatory costs (red tape),
statutory taxes (federal, state and local) or excessive charges. The research
showed that the combined costs of the statutory taxes, regulatory costs and
excessive charges <b>equate to 50 per cent of the cost of a new house and land
package.</b> The situation since 2019 has only worsened.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Many years (2007), when I prepared a report <i>“Boulevard of
Broken Dreams – the Future of Housing Affordability in Australia”</i> for the
PCA – that cost was around a third. It’s now half. No wonder things are getting
worse. (If you want a copy, I can email you one just let me know). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Even more concerning is the equity argument. Buyers of an
entry level new house and land package on the urban fringe – our archetypal
young family of first home buyers – will pay a great deal more in embedded taxes
and charges on their new home than someone buying a multi-million dollar established
home in, for example, the privileged inner-city market of New Farm (or Balmain
for a Sydney equivalent). Our young buyers are buying into an area where the
infrastructure is largely still a promise of things to come. Our New Farm
buyers are buying into a market where other taxpayers have generously funded
the extensive hard and social infrastructure which has made the suburb so desirable,
but they pay no infrastructure levy, no GST, and no other regulatory or compliance
costs. They may grumble about stamp duty but it is far less than the combined
tax bill faced by our young family. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So, the solution to this mess of regulation and tax, which
has made new land for housing a complex and costly exercise, is to suggest building
a tiny house of less than 40 square metres on land which costs over $150,000 to
service, let alone the cost of the land itself? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Sorry Noddy and Big Ears, it’s a nice idea, but we’re in the
real world now.</span></p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-71491726319726552192023-05-14T17:48:00.000-07:002023-05-14T17:48:39.536-07:00No, we can’t address affordability by building lots more apartments<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmitBZcyD4Uer3mj0SIt6G0rZjF9v-4XwO16ZVuJg3YtT-0BAxCshyJ8hwneYIpnpjXonnV21HDj4Q7bz_SiXO-qoaA6Nl49kkEG458mVc2QjElUcgtGwUR5hjW1WKCL0gihwBu4V-ofePZHn6p7XCDJA8_wc3pIUMaFKo8DbQNcszElRK37V1o39mPA/s240/DiligentPracticalGlowworm-max-1mb.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="136" data-original-width="240" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmitBZcyD4Uer3mj0SIt6G0rZjF9v-4XwO16ZVuJg3YtT-0BAxCshyJ8hwneYIpnpjXonnV21HDj4Q7bz_SiXO-qoaA6Nl49kkEG458mVc2QjElUcgtGwUR5hjW1WKCL0gihwBu4V-ofePZHn6p7XCDJA8_wc3pIUMaFKo8DbQNcszElRK37V1o39mPA/w400-h227/DiligentPracticalGlowworm-max-1mb.gif" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p>One of the (many) furphies that gets aired (frequently) in
discussions around housing affordability is that we can build ourselves out of
the problem by building a lot more high-density housing units rather than
typical detached suburban houses.</span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">In fact, the opposite is likely to happen should we attempt
this course of action. Here’s why.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">First, the reality of construction economics is such as that
every square metre of space in a high-rise apartment building is more expensive
– roughly double or more – than the same square metre of space built in a detached
single level home. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The traditional “sticks and bricks on slab” construction of
detached suburban housing has been incredibly efficient over a very long period
of time. As a building form, it lacks complexity (despite recent moves to introduce
it via new standards). It’s even been said that in post-World War II Sydney, as
many as a third of the new suburban homes <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Infinite-Suburbia-Alan-Berger/dp/1616895500">were by
owner-builders</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Despite recent and rapid cost escalations, the <a href="https://propertyupdate.com.au/how-much-on-average-does-it-cost-to-build-a-house/">build
cost per square metre</a> of a low-set detached suburban house is still around
$1700 for the modest spec home. Not including the land, you can still find <a href="https://www.ausbuild.com.au/home-designs">project home builders</a> who
will give you the keys to a brand new three bedroom, two bathroom house from
around $220,000 to $300,000 – and that’s for roughly 200m2 under roof.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">It’s a different story for multi storey apartments. These
are more complex structures, with a good deal more going into them – more than
just concrete and reinforced-steel slabs (which are themselves more expensive
than timber frames or bricks for a low set house). There are also lifts, fire
systems, standby generators, deep foundations and excavations for basement car
parks… it’s quite a list. Building them also takes a lot longer than a standard
house and involves at least one tower crane, sometimes more.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">All of which means each square metre of floorspace in that
high rise unit tower is going to cost around <a href="https://www.rlb.com/ccc/#construction-cost-indicator">$4,000/m2</a> for a
structure of basic design. This applies to the whole floor of course – corridors
and common areas included. The cost per metre for the actual living space,
developers and QS’s tell me, is closer to $5,000 per square metre. So a unit of
120 square metres will cost around $600,000 just to build. Not including the
land or other development costs. This is around half the size but twice the
cost of our detached new stick-and-brick example above – which includes builder
margin. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Market prices need to factor in land and other development
costs. The new low set detached house <i>and</i> land package will set you back
from around $500,000 to $700,000, depending on location. (This is the discount
end of the market of course). New home units however are well above this. Try
finding a new three-bedroom apartment for $700,000 in Brisbane. Many are priced
at $1m or more, even those well away from the urban core. (Spend a little while
searching on realestate.com.au and see for yourself!). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">What’s happening to the theory that we can solve
affordability by building more apartments? It doesn’t stack up. You can’t “solve”
affordability by building more of the most expensive building types. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">It gets worse. Developers will know that, given base build
costs plus land, infrastructure levies, and other costs (including allowing for
a margin), they will have a minimum retail price they can deliver apartments
for. The build cost is virtually the same in middle and outer suburbs as the
inner city (land being the only differentiator). But in middle and outer suburban
markets, the price points that people will pay are below the cost at which the
product can be delivered. So it’s not worth doing. Instead, they will turn
their attention to locations which can support higher purchase prices – and already
well-off inner-city locations tick that box. There is less risk and a deeper
market in building units that sell for over $16,000 per square metre (nearly
$2m each or more) in any number of inner city locations, than trying to build
lower cost units in suburban locations. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Which means the market supply of higher density housing will
concentrate in and around the inner city where you will increasingly see new
projects with price tags four times the Brisbane unit median. This is hardly doing
anything for affordability. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">A similar thing happened in Vancouver, Canada. There, as Patrick
Condon (James Taylor chair in Landscape and Livable Environments at the
University of British Columbia’s School of Architecture and Landscape
Architecture and the founding chair of the UBC Urban Design program) <a href="https://biv.com/article/2023/05/patrick-condon-behold-vancouver-where-there-are-housing-solutions-be-found">points
out</a>, the city tripled its housing via high density infill: “this was an
unreservedly good thing – in all but one respect. This giant surge of new
housing supply did not lead to more affordable housing as we all hoped.
Somehow, confoundingly, the reverse happened.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Sure did. Vancouver became the world’s least affordable
housing market. Not a great outcome if affordability is your objective. Don’t
be like Vancouver. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6WUx8UV4t6dNgx8-Xi5YmIfArBami_PLZLEFMRbqCKy-eISMMwbJOvs-X0hmfBwJn-5j7aTci2IvOo6ZXtoS8XJvJ68mZRx2tJR_nVrhCd4Y4rk4Xktl9yWvCooUz5C8hpPyuo3Iuf6EdG31ZZHbrTDzlpq3xB5iw9MitF-TUDuy2UefQnaOD7ERdXw/s491/vancouver.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="491" data-original-width="369" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6WUx8UV4t6dNgx8-Xi5YmIfArBami_PLZLEFMRbqCKy-eISMMwbJOvs-X0hmfBwJn-5j7aTci2IvOo6ZXtoS8XJvJ68mZRx2tJR_nVrhCd4Y4rk4Xktl9yWvCooUz5C8hpPyuo3Iuf6EdG31ZZHbrTDzlpq3xB5iw9MitF-TUDuy2UefQnaOD7ERdXw/w300-h400/vancouver.png" width="300" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Last words:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Yes, townhouses are a halfway point in build costs. Suburban
renewal precincts with townhouses or low set apartments are a more affordable
answer, but even this is a challenge given construction economics.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">No, outer suburban detached housing will not result in more
people trying to get to the inner city for work. These buyers typically don’t
work in the inner city. Inner city workers are typically higher paid. In New Farm
for example, one in five households earns over $4000 a week. Inner city markets
are high income markets with high-cost real estate. These people typically don’t
work in the suburbs at a hospital or in retail or in education. </span><o:p></o:p></p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-74477391079478683472023-05-07T20:16:00.001-07:002023-05-07T20:17:56.098-07:00No, we don’t have “a housing supply crisis”<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg93EfSTdtypRWly-FwZVR0gRohM4sepi3o4NPPD6ajWAawGxYPM0uiAFfgp7WhEhPkuQvZ64gOz8uwHMF5FcwRCf_TNO0ocHQ0Osy7tg51h70JQBdcJUTqvILk7_4B_6MwxKaHrBpsGrWaky_wUPjuAwfe8P_HEdPNedHvgfayrJLCz0xIhIwgtbmvJQ/s800/WW-Housing_Lede.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="533" data-original-width="800" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg93EfSTdtypRWly-FwZVR0gRohM4sepi3o4NPPD6ajWAawGxYPM0uiAFfgp7WhEhPkuQvZ64gOz8uwHMF5FcwRCf_TNO0ocHQ0Osy7tg51h70JQBdcJUTqvILk7_4B_6MwxKaHrBpsGrWaky_wUPjuAwfe8P_HEdPNedHvgfayrJLCz0xIhIwgtbmvJQ/s320/WW-Housing_Lede.png" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">We have plenty of things we could call a crisis, but suggesting we have a housing supply crisis isn’t one of them. Here’s why.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">First, recall that the immutable law of economics 101 is called “the law of supply AND demand.” The two work together. In periods of high demand, the law states that supply will normally respond with increases. Failure to do so will see prices rise. In periods of low demand, supply should also fall. Failure to do so will see prices fall. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Looking at supply of housing commencements on a national basis, it’s hard to see a crisis. Sure, early 2023 figures are low, but the longer-term trend should provide some comfort.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPwSI74I8OlbUSnjztA6NdJrZox7qRuwef6x6f0avYd--M27QvqwniOQyKYIRQnDq8bkmMSOklOzE8bEAHZiUHY47OkmIKRSoBbeB2gJffi_zWBhd68BT8WJBD1yYcy56YBFri-iyA_7GeQmYI6KlwJNsANfxwuizlYscWL75jcjlEofOjLHG9xFhjUQ/s583/Picture1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="324" data-original-width="583" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPwSI74I8OlbUSnjztA6NdJrZox7qRuwef6x6f0avYd--M27QvqwniOQyKYIRQnDq8bkmMSOklOzE8bEAHZiUHY47OkmIKRSoBbeB2gJffi_zWBhd68BT8WJBD1yYcy56YBFri-iyA_7GeQmYI6KlwJNsANfxwuizlYscWL75jcjlEofOjLHG9xFhjUQ/w400-h223/Picture1.png" width="400" /></a></div><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">What about the demand side? Our rate of population growth has come off the Covid-induced shut down and is headed for the moon. It’s both a very rapid increase (almost vertical) and at total levels that are themselves records. This is almost entirely the result of immigration policy. In other words, it’s deliberate. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmEgtyAreoi1HI_IaDbbBfi0Ul3Td2c4qwJBiV5KPVHAZ3h1naLRIW5E_RBrs4pN30eSTmuyMNkCXgVJFMg6EmlUW5qKwF6HyDhKdq7OS7AeYTLdKeDWnQme6Z1u2VkmHjc8YIqiVCZwId4dfjsPk-U8lPpxul26KHhI1ZmJdJX5GyE4PZZfaZeldxvw/s593/Picture2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="367" data-original-width="593" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmEgtyAreoi1HI_IaDbbBfi0Ul3Td2c4qwJBiV5KPVHAZ3h1naLRIW5E_RBrs4pN30eSTmuyMNkCXgVJFMg6EmlUW5qKwF6HyDhKdq7OS7AeYTLdKeDWnQme6Z1u2VkmHjc8YIqiVCZwId4dfjsPk-U8lPpxul26KHhI1ZmJdJX5GyE4PZZfaZeldxvw/w400-h248/Picture2.png" width="400" /></a></div><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">So combine very rapid increases in demand and record levels of overall demand that are well in excess of what the market can supply and guess what – prices rise, vacancies fall and we start calling this self-inflicted situation a crisis.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">There’s another reason that “housing supply crisis” doesn’t ring true, and that’s because building houses is still – despite high profile builder collapses – relatively easy. It’s the land to put them on that we’ve made a herculean challenge. Sure, there’s no shortage of land in Australia but economists who don’t understand the delights of our planning systems would have little idea how hard it is to find suitably zoned land, either serviced or capable of being serviced, in or near locations where people seem to most want to live. This artificially induced supply constraint has been supported in the interests of combatting sprawl. Yet it is also having the effect of reducing the supply side response. Bringing land to market is now a minimum 5 year (in some cases longer) proposition for many larger urban markets. It’s also costly. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">(Ironically, when asked, many seem to respond in favour of sprawl – allowing more homes in new suburbs outside city centres was the most popular response to a range of options offered in this 2023 Resolve Political Monitor poll. The least popular? Allowing more apartments to be built within existing city areas):</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9NJlwkOM4vaLmz3ECIY56nPkm8ApyM0lU_T7yEWsSxPix9BlGvXR1vOHEM66asvPEmM3uiEuXSeFNl8i6pzbgQNlM5REH32Rj-PBWuztNJfqQyxaB7Qv-TvzEY09gmWuO0UosUTkvfPp02tullSx2m7bX8n53plcZhC8ikFzFHAGQfEa1JqT0nfMQdQ/s547/Picture3.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="468" data-original-width="547" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9NJlwkOM4vaLmz3ECIY56nPkm8ApyM0lU_T7yEWsSxPix9BlGvXR1vOHEM66asvPEmM3uiEuXSeFNl8i6pzbgQNlM5REH32Rj-PBWuztNJfqQyxaB7Qv-TvzEY09gmWuO0UosUTkvfPp02tullSx2m7bX8n53plcZhC8ikFzFHAGQfEa1JqT0nfMQdQ/w408-h350/Picture3.png" width="408" /></a></div><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">So what I’d suggest is that we don’t really have a housing supply crisis, but instead we have a growth crisis. Not just a shortage of zoned land to build houses, but shortages of hospital beds, of schools, of transport infrastructure, even looming shortages of potable water and energy. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">How can pumping our population growth to record levels and doing so at warp speed, given what we know from bitter experience about our unresponsive regulatory environments, not end badly? </span></p><p><br /></p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-61527094926836101022023-02-11T23:00:00.001-08:002023-02-11T23:04:31.854-08:00Why do we keep falling for the idea that the rate of population growth in Australia is inevitable?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLN4kFn91InnSSBNDuscjqJ1rXKm6odTswoXOtg8d0s6RL8NOzHQvvc5sIvTHOUL3azHlXcJPuFcgK3xSMcstn5ASqj2OHY7UOaarDzg2s4pNvuxoSMXXMR1wOt4_dbtVCLNsGQs5dopaVbgvFxBcAc9qvL0cRjRkU4rTlFolJD-zAgIxlg7DNMILS3w/s640/suckhole-lemmings.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="362" data-original-width="640" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLN4kFn91InnSSBNDuscjqJ1rXKm6odTswoXOtg8d0s6RL8NOzHQvvc5sIvTHOUL3azHlXcJPuFcgK3xSMcstn5ASqj2OHY7UOaarDzg2s4pNvuxoSMXXMR1wOt4_dbtVCLNsGQs5dopaVbgvFxBcAc9qvL0cRjRkU4rTlFolJD-zAgIxlg7DNMILS3w/w400-h226/suckhole-lemmings.gif" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p><b><span style="font-family: verdana;">There is nothing inevitable about the
rate of our population growth in Australia. So why does so much of our urban
planning assume that the rates of growth are something “we can’t do anything
about” when the opposite is in fact true? Only recently we proved it can be
done when we pulled the policy levers on growth to ‘halt’ for the first time in
many decades - thanks to Covid. Given planning for growth is about demand as
well as supply, why is it we seem to accept rapid growth as ‘fate’ rather than
plan for growth at speeds we can actually handle?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Our <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs%40.nsf/Web%2BPages/Population%2BClock?opendocument=&ref=HPKI">population
clock</a> shows there are now nearly 26.3 million of us. The biggest driver of
that growth is net overseas migration – which is a direct result of national
policy. When net overseas migration slows, our overall rate of population slows.
Our natural (births over deaths) rate of growth is very modest by comparison
and (unless you’re adopting a Community China approach to birth control and
family planning) is beyond the reach of policy makers. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2PAsxB_frpdrVOJ9BOprGtFP-4jfmAGJjxWfaXXqX9wMoMjUOKvVGqwFOfKvO-53AAPTIcydh9GBrRtHHmSS22lqO373OXRuhCBqC4Lychwjcm5Uqp5nqpNIRXBqHnyZ_mWIgyQAkCv4eCwWvGTJ9nS76Bp6Q7q9uJ-Nq56KbD9JAi3hARWP5fv0ueQ/s1379/Picture1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="766" data-original-width="1379" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2PAsxB_frpdrVOJ9BOprGtFP-4jfmAGJjxWfaXXqX9wMoMjUOKvVGqwFOfKvO-53AAPTIcydh9GBrRtHHmSS22lqO373OXRuhCBqC4Lychwjcm5Uqp5nqpNIRXBqHnyZ_mWIgyQAkCv4eCwWvGTJ9nS76Bp6Q7q9uJ-Nq56KbD9JAi3hARWP5fv0ueQ/w400-h223/Picture1.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So population growth in Australia is invariably
a discussion about net overseas migration numbers – something we seem sensitive
about lest we be charged with racism or some other allegation. Nearly every
country around the world views control of its borders as a primary responsibility,
and with it, management of its own population. We are no different.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Australia’s rates of net overseas
migration really took off in the early 2000s. After bouncing around at the 100,000
per annum mark for the best part of 50 years, it surged to double that and momentarily
to triple that before crashing to negative as a result of global Covid border
shutdown:<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU_v4SSwhqcWH73E1EptNtI2w7kMwsNwewSnLHXRRkWWHz2gWHwFWmCF_pS05nC-_xH14ajvayvqBh-YgiOFd9DCv3-y9gBF20YYm-5Bikw2lNPBgPuSvbq9qo-Q4Nw5mdiBGpTtsmR6Pg9JLzyUI4QtWHZwqeHJbmdHIcAUOlGnmCmxyTbT5tYu3-cQ/s1379/Picture2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="822" data-original-width="1379" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU_v4SSwhqcWH73E1EptNtI2w7kMwsNwewSnLHXRRkWWHz2gWHwFWmCF_pS05nC-_xH14ajvayvqBh-YgiOFd9DCv3-y9gBF20YYm-5Bikw2lNPBgPuSvbq9qo-Q4Nw5mdiBGpTtsmR6Pg9JLzyUI4QtWHZwqeHJbmdHIcAUOlGnmCmxyTbT5tYu3-cQ/w400-h239/Picture2.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Ironically, the rapid acceleration in rates
of net overseas migration <a href="https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/release/transcript-12332">followed a 2001
pre-election speech by then Prime Minister John Howard</a>, who seemed to
suggest the opposite was coming:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="background: white; color: #212529; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“I hold
very strongly to the view that this country has an obligation as part of the
international community to conduct a generous refugee program and we have done
so to our credit now for some decades. We are one of only nine countries in the
world that has a resettlement program and we take more refugees on a per capita
basis than any country in the world accept Canada. But my friends we will
decide who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come and
we'll decide that applying humane equitable principles and international
refugee assessment. What is involved in this debate about asylum seekers is the
proposition that some people have, namely if people can quite literally present
themselves at Australia's borders and demand entry no matter what the
background or no matter what the circumstances are.</span>”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="background: white; color: #212529; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">That
won him much support at the time, and the phrase “we will decide who comes to
this country and the circumstances in which they come” has become one of his
signature lines. The speech was in response to national security concerns flowing
from global terrorism but was also widely taken to refer to immigration policy
generally. But population numbers boomed to record levels in the next term of
his office as Prime Minister.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="background: white; color: #212529; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The ALP
too have had views on our rates of population growth. Labor Prime Minister Anthony
Albanese, when he was Opposition Leader, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/aug/14/anthony-albanese-calls-for-mature-debate-on-population-growth">called
for a “mature debate</a>” on population growth rates. In response to an Infrastructure
Australia report that warned rapid growth rates would require $40bn per annum
in spending, he had this to say:<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="background: white; color: #121212; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“It’s a
matter of appropriate population growth… </span><span style="color: #121212; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">What we can’t have is
what has historically happened of just opening up land release, growth in outer
suburbs, people not located near jobs without working out where they will work,
where they will access health and education services, where their kids will
play.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="background: white; color: #121212; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“There is a role for government in just not allowing the
market to let rip and having significant development occurring without looking
at the social infrastructure that is required in order to improve liveability
and sustainability.”</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="background: white; color: #121212; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Now elected
to office, that debate hasn’t happened. Instead, our rates of net overseas
migration have been again set at record high levels. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="background: white; color: #121212; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">To
illustrate the speed of that growth, consider this graph which compares the
various rates of predicted growth in our three major cities (where most growth pressure
is occurring) with a range of global cities. While other cities (such as LA or
London or San Francisco) may be significantly larger in number, their rates of
growth are much slower. Since I did the research for this graph, LA and San
Francisco have entered negative territory. In the case of LA, the <a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/population-estimates-counties-decrease.html#:~:text=Los%20Angeles%20County%2C%20California%20experienced,losing%20159%2C621%20residents%20in%202021.">US
Census Bureau</a> said it had “</span><span style="background: white; color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">the largest
population loss of any county, losing 159,621 residents in 2021.</span>” This
hasn’t led to a collapse of the LA economy. <span style="background: white; color: #121212; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDObM93X9PykrIr9ZCHk9VSfHuZiPAUWDw_-lB58Hn8Nq2x9aonCKm9ENHlUUZ9rWQMdVDip6ekNdhxCGDQfgQQZXGKgQ4zzY4xxd5q9fGwylgNu42-xh7wws-N4kCtmnRUN-EjpdbIU_OH-J_P-d-_oasChvnfg02s_bFf1knTIbMPCMPJpsAvrbh3g/s924/Picture3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="557" data-original-width="924" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDObM93X9PykrIr9ZCHk9VSfHuZiPAUWDw_-lB58Hn8Nq2x9aonCKm9ENHlUUZ9rWQMdVDip6ekNdhxCGDQfgQQZXGKgQ4zzY4xxd5q9fGwylgNu42-xh7wws-N4kCtmnRUN-EjpdbIU_OH-J_P-d-_oasChvnfg02s_bFf1knTIbMPCMPJpsAvrbh3g/w400-h241/Picture3.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Our rates of population growth, pre-pandemic,
were three times that of many global cities we like to compare ourselves with. They
are comparable only with the hyper growth rates of cities like Shanghai and
Beijing in Communist China. Let that sink in.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The consequences of our inability to
deal with these very rapid rates of growth are everywhere – housing shortages,
hospital shortages, school shortages, rising congestion (doubling the
population of a city but relying on the same transport infrastructure networks
that were there in the 1980s will do that!), potable water shortages, energy
shortages, shortages of parkland… if you think we’re doing OK you’re very much
in the minority. (A <a href="http://thefingeronthepulse.blogspot.com/2022/09/is-housing-shortage-least-of-our-worries.html">recent
article</a> of mine went into some of these shortages in more detail). <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">What does the Australian population
think of these rates of growth? Invariably, whenever their opinion is asked,
the answer isn’t what the development industry or big business lobbies want to
hear. A 2021 <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/voters-worry-about-falling-wages-back-lower-migrant-intake-20220222-p59yo7.html">poll
of Sydney and Melbourne residents for Fairfax media</a> for example found that
two thirds of residents wanted net overseas migration numbers to return at lower
levels than pre-pandemic. Only One in five were happy with pre-pandemic levels
or higher. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM-jKiarKEysoyEojIHsxryCh-LJafQOODw6yPQjCgwJuTzC2ilQ9y17KeDwiadbzA_BDr7bNHzzNMKNOYXVhG2tPGctvfutj4UOavO3_G7TFsHauxl-kJjBjPEbvuZ8jCFp1UMRo7FeiWrFfiutkqgdNfL2Xk4b0Qt2LL6dM3uHilySHJDd7tcVS3HQ/s571/Picture4.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="571" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM-jKiarKEysoyEojIHsxryCh-LJafQOODw6yPQjCgwJuTzC2ilQ9y17KeDwiadbzA_BDr7bNHzzNMKNOYXVhG2tPGctvfutj4UOavO3_G7TFsHauxl-kJjBjPEbvuZ8jCFp1UMRo7FeiWrFfiutkqgdNfL2Xk4b0Qt2LL6dM3uHilySHJDd7tcVS3HQ/w400-h336/Picture4.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">It's hard to suggest these somehow reflect
racist views, given that both Sydney and Melbourne are highly multicultural
cities and a diverse range of cultures would invariably be included in that
sample. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So if rapid rates of growth are leading
to obvious critical infrastructure shortages and eroding our quality of life in
major cities, and if the majority of the population has significant reservations
around the speed of growth and net overseas migration, why are we doing it?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">There are arguments in favour of rapid
growth – that it’s essential for the economy etc. Those arguments are often
promoted by ‘big end of town’ interests motivated by selling cheap apartments
or finding low-cost labour to plug labour resource gaps. Critics have argued
that support of high migration policies are the equivalent of a pyramid scheme.
Not all critics are cranks either, such as <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/terry-mccrann/australias-population-ponzi-is-no-path-to-prosperity/news-story/407df85339ae272c10285ea250a4cd2c">this
article</a> from the respected economist and journalist Terry McCrann:<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 115%; margin: 0cm; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="color: #202223; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">“The next big battle for rational policy that adds
value to Australia and individual Australians and not just dollars to the
bottom lines and bank balances of developers, construction companies and
assorted billionaires has to be over population. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">Two years of the virus put Australia’s ‘Population Ponzi’ on hold
– the idea that you could build a healthy and strongly growing economy on
simply bringing more and more people into Melbourne and Sydney, every year,
forever. Yes, we got bigger <span id="U71118951201862" style="box-sizing: inherit;">aggregate</span> growth in the economy, but we most
certainly didn’t get quality growth, that actually improves the lives of
ordinary Australians.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlmlUCvOKEfy9yvGqXNwHVAzEYqRAvn8W2OBkhvp3XvUGmPv08bwcLYZro0IObbE9ngXxOraLMA-ldr2_I5BI-XYYjx8bSpQMPeB5USj7QNfTrIoffHQ6SkbapJ8eWs3J4JEmr5gy-geQw-cGINALSiPyTL2ZNfkC2jWFdj_8wgdnoyAmQmj8l_B2QbA/s540/tumblr_df990a3c7bf3092296bb39c280050519_5a5d4f69_540%20(1).gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="350" data-original-width="540" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlmlUCvOKEfy9yvGqXNwHVAzEYqRAvn8W2OBkhvp3XvUGmPv08bwcLYZro0IObbE9ngXxOraLMA-ldr2_I5BI-XYYjx8bSpQMPeB5USj7QNfTrIoffHQ6SkbapJ8eWs3J4JEmr5gy-geQw-cGINALSiPyTL2ZNfkC2jWFdj_8wgdnoyAmQmj8l_B2QbA/w400-h259/tumblr_df990a3c7bf3092296bb39c280050519_5a5d4f69_540%20(1).gif" width="400" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The argument that we might be better
advised to grow at more modest rates to ensure that our provision of critical
infrastructure can keep up, and that our quality of life (and access to essentials
like housing) doesn’t get worse, isn’t a discussion we seem ready to have.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Keep in mind too that the wealthy and privileged
easily self-insulate from the adverse consequences of rapid growth, while
enjoying the material benefits of it. They may promote higher infill housing
density for their business interests’ sake, but rush to oppose it when a
project threatens their own personal residential amenity. The
problem of public hospital shortages doesn’t worry them either as they have the
best private health cover available. Issues around state government schooling isn’t a
worry, they have their children in the very best private schools. Rising household
energy costs aren’t a concern for people who can afford $100,000 electric cars
to openly demonstrate their eco credentials. And so it goes on. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">There is nothing inevitable about our
rates of population growth. They are the result of policy decisions we, as a
nation, deliberately make. There is however something inevitable about the
reluctance of our leaders in public policy, business and government to engage
in an informed debate about the impacts of rapid growth and whether or not a
more modest pace would benefit a greater number of people. </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-43419715447516543262023-01-16T23:37:00.001-08:002023-01-16T23:38:12.787-08:00‘HOSPO’ (the hospitality industry)<p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtVsm3jdP8Qju2WnOUgdm6Zfb85MaoM5nZObuAe9tGFm2sIoc9VLMNixQ7S_GihSx00Uxz1v4ZSqRx4TjxKrs3EGxGB6Y_KPQpNh46P3KZjnkQF-jdMyp99NUdyRLKusq1oEHPmhS7gWBMCCYhHXIYTE3VUJ-ZLwi4mgog0HBTuvvuLrPJIe1KAF3shA/s2362/Drinkers-at-bar.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1574" data-original-width="2362" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtVsm3jdP8Qju2WnOUgdm6Zfb85MaoM5nZObuAe9tGFm2sIoc9VLMNixQ7S_GihSx00Uxz1v4ZSqRx4TjxKrs3EGxGB6Y_KPQpNh46P3KZjnkQF-jdMyp99NUdyRLKusq1oEHPmhS7gWBMCCYhHXIYTE3VUJ-ZLwi4mgog0HBTuvvuLrPJIe1KAF3shA/w400-h266/Drinkers-at-bar.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></span></p>There are nineteen broad industry categories in Australia (based
on the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification) and 96
subdivisions. The attention-getters are things like retail trade, construction,
professional/scientific/technical, education, and health care/social
assistance. But what about the quiet achievers? What about, for example, the
‘hospo’ (accommodation and food services) industry, which has proven to be
surprisingly resilient despite being practically outlawed during Covid
lockdowns, and which by many accounts will continue to enjoy growth despite
rising interest rates and abundant stories of falling consumer confidence?</span></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">First, some industry dimensions. Hospo employs nearly 1 million
Australians, or 7% of the workforce. This handy infographic below from the <a href="https://labourmarketinsights.gov.au/industries/industry-details?industryCode=H">Australian
Government Labour market insights</a> provides a useful overview. Past growth
of 6.4% is predicted to double in coming years to 13.2%. Yes, it’s a lower paid
industry with a low full-time share, but an industry showing growth of this
magnitude is one that will experience more spending, which means elevated cash
flows and share of wallet.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEittJyCtEkhyEOXoGx-r_rreYNjOD6AD-o4ToXiWIc0AGhPwZQOERTTZLwBNEVifVRdhYm5G9hfgEHdSpwLodIBOWubPcQuMKaNMdjGWTQf-K4Y5wleVkwPUw3XZrBf-IGM9JooYK8uq35Nug01dBTZw-trdc_Gfm_ibqiGXZBWcUIWbNgNuPaU7A748A/s602/hospo1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="295" data-original-width="602" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEittJyCtEkhyEOXoGx-r_rreYNjOD6AD-o4ToXiWIc0AGhPwZQOERTTZLwBNEVifVRdhYm5G9hfgEHdSpwLodIBOWubPcQuMKaNMdjGWTQf-K4Y5wleVkwPUw3XZrBf-IGM9JooYK8uq35Nug01dBTZw-trdc_Gfm_ibqiGXZBWcUIWbNgNuPaU7A748A/w400-h196/hospo1.png" width="400" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Government’s Labour Market insights also reveals that, while
industries like health and education along with professionals, have dominated
discussions about jobs growth into the future (and with good reason), guess
which industry comes in amongst the top five of nineteen? Accommodation and
food services are predicted to be the fourth fastest growing industry of
employment in the five years to 2026:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRMGKYWrlgU9bnG-SwqpnOR_1BFAlB7Tkt6LoMtOXU_ORDoBp2cFAbGzh-KVMxjy3DzdjlaqWYvTTjVyB_2BgGb60FkaytpLTDK8dNRTjCfKvUbNHhnPO9G1o-UcLZ8nX1jGiBcFg-KgxkYHo4ids7ld8-5wXAueYY92NwGoXvuxi31yHG_JtfJMRAaw/s577/hospo2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="258" data-original-width="577" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRMGKYWrlgU9bnG-SwqpnOR_1BFAlB7Tkt6LoMtOXU_ORDoBp2cFAbGzh-KVMxjy3DzdjlaqWYvTTjVyB_2BgGb60FkaytpLTDK8dNRTjCfKvUbNHhnPO9G1o-UcLZ8nX1jGiBcFg-KgxkYHo4ids7ld8-5wXAueYY92NwGoXvuxi31yHG_JtfJMRAaw/w400-h179/hospo2.png" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Predictions of growth for pubs, clubs and dining might seem
counter-intuitive given the extreme pain inflicted by Covid lockdown policies,
now compounded by predictions of a ‘mortgage cliff’ and consumer blood in the
streets as the result of rising interest rates. But even taking these things
into account, prospects for this industry seem solid. According to the </span><a href="https://nationalindustryinsights.aisc.net.au/industries/tourism-travel-and-hospitality/hospitality#:~:text=All%20Hospitality%2Drelated%20occupations%20are,%25)%20and%20Waiters%20(12%25)." style="font-family: verdana;">Australian
Industry & Skills Committee</a><span style="font-family: verdana;"> for example: </span><i style="font-family: verdana;">“All Hospitality-related
occupations are projected to show growth to 2026, with the strongest growth
expected for Cafe and Restaurant Managers (27%), Fast Food Cooks (18%), Chefs
(14%) and Waiters (12%).”</i><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span><span style="font-family: verdana;">The food
and beverage part of the industry, which has already bounced back from the
Covid lockdowns, is expected to add jobs while the accommodation part of the
industry remains flat:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJdLl27RFGDRopixjaoMzt-AegZpBf_3UqxO6uaN0_VLHTd4Iql27h4y5If4s4IRfYKuj6TuQerQd1uqMCBMRDNSCBUL-XebAesl0FsIvH0xbT_7AOsDQlItyzm0qC4XGKqD8dD7ph2wMheu6rw9II4EJWi8MoCVecA_yY2KIT8K6ex3mtAk8D6PnLkA/s441/hospo3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="320" data-original-width="441" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJdLl27RFGDRopixjaoMzt-AegZpBf_3UqxO6uaN0_VLHTd4Iql27h4y5If4s4IRfYKuj6TuQerQd1uqMCBMRDNSCBUL-XebAesl0FsIvH0xbT_7AOsDQlItyzm0qC4XGKqD8dD7ph2wMheu6rw9II4EJWi8MoCVecA_yY2KIT8K6ex3mtAk8D6PnLkA/w400-h290/hospo3.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">What’s driving that growth is said to be our growing ‘foodie
culture’ (which I think means an increasing willingness to eat out and to
explore new food, dining and drinking experiences?). Added to this, a growing
population and a bounce back in global tourism numbers provide a further floor
to support future growth.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Global industry
researchers </span><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://www.ibisworld.com/au/industry/pubs-bars-nightclubs/448/"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Ibisworld</span></a></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> are also talking
up the industry’s prospects. Their 2017-2022 analysis was understandably dour: <i>“The
Pubs, Bars and Nightclubs industry has faced difficult trading conditions over
the past five years. Rising health consciousness has constrained per capita
alcohol consumption. Additionally, government regulations aimed at curbing
binge drinking, alcohol-related violence and problem gambling have dampened
industry performance over the period. The COVID-19 pandemic and related
restrictions have substantially affected the industry over the three years
through 2021-22, due to ongoing temporary establishment closures and subsequent
capacity limits.”</i><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But for 2022-2027
the tone is more upbeat: <i>“Revenue for the Pubs, Bars and Nightclubs industry
is forecast to grow over the next five years. Operators are projected to
increase their focus on high-quality food and beverage offerings to appeal to
value-conscious consumers and increase their revenue bases. Additionally,
increased local tourism campaigns and support from the wider hospitality sector
are likely to boost industry demand. Easing international border restrictions
will support inbound travel to Australia, providing a much-needed boost to
industry revenue” </i>(while also noting that alcohol consumption per capita
may continue to fall and gambling curbs are a further mitigating factor). <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ </span><a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/finance/monthly-household-spending-indicator/latest-release#:~:text=Household%20spending%20increased%2011.4%25%20through,and%20goods%20(%2B1.2%25)" style="font-family: verdana;">Monthly
Household Spending Indicator</a><span style="font-family: verdana;"> provides a further insight. The latest data,
which runs through to November 2022, shows that household consumer spending
continued undeterred by rising interest rates or predictions of economic calamity
just around the corner. And the largest increases in spending? In order they
were:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: verdana; text-indent: -18pt;">transport (+35.8%)</span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">hotels, cafes and restaurants (+23.8%)</span></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+10.8%).</span></span></li></ol><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">What is it with us Australians? Faced with rising mortgages and
electricity bills, you’d think we would hunker down like some economic doomsday
preppers, feeding off bulk cans of baked beans and Tom Piper stew (do they
still make that? A staple of my student days!) stored in locked suburban
garages? But no, we continue spending on dining, drinking, entertainment and
travel. And according to these predictions, we’re going to spend even more.
Somehow, we’ll find the money.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Is there something of the Australian psyche at work here? A few
years ago, I had a CEO role in the hospitality industry (for a wine and
restaurant brand). Just after I started, the GFC hit. The US market – a key
export market – stopped spending on drinking and gambling (which affected a related
parent company). But the Australian market didn’t stop. It just found other
ways to afford it. It’s as if we value our lifestyle – which includes the
freedom to visit a pub and pay outrageous amounts for a steak and cold beer, or
pay through the nose for some fancy cocktail – so highly that these things are
not so much “discretionary” spending, as closer to life’s essentials.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Of course, there are a great many people genuinely doing it tough.
The working wage hasn’t kept pace with costs of living for a very long time. But
in the meantime, there seems a large and growing cohort of people who are
sufficiently immune from economic cold winds, that they can carry on unfazed.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">2023 will be an interesting year to watch what happens across the
economy, given that further interest rate rises are almost certain and talk of
a global recession is gathering more support. But if you thought that an
industry like hospo might be vulnerable and in for another body-blow, you might
be surprised at how resilient it proves to be.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i style="font-family: verdana;">Postscript:</i><span style="font-family: verdana;"> Just when there’s every reason to expect
consumer confidence will take a hit, turns out the opposite is true: the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-17/consumer-confidence-sees-biggest-rise-in-nine/101863446">Westpac
Westpac-Melbourne Institute Sentiment index</a> rose by 5 per cent in January -
the largest monthly gain since April 2021.</span></p><br /><p></p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-29786220432760410792022-12-06T17:56:00.000-08:002022-12-06T17:56:30.921-08:00Spare a thought for NIMBYs<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyaKIZTXE5bHO728WDn0qYKoQttYaoraI1wXQMjdmC7Ak26xE5HlFI2MAQH3SaPPs-jqHWTPmf5qfyH2m_91UYzyoibnO4v-rF_tK20KOJltLtmjtg7OFRsj0hznlTzlMvJUjQRQ1BeKGvHtPbSzfeu-XeWzCxpG3A9nYXnZwTnKX8736vqoFCnOFbNQ/s1519/Picture1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="854" data-original-width="1519" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyaKIZTXE5bHO728WDn0qYKoQttYaoraI1wXQMjdmC7Ak26xE5HlFI2MAQH3SaPPs-jqHWTPmf5qfyH2m_91UYzyoibnO4v-rF_tK20KOJltLtmjtg7OFRsj0hznlTzlMvJUjQRQ1BeKGvHtPbSzfeu-XeWzCxpG3A9nYXnZwTnKX8736vqoFCnOFbNQ/w400-h225/Picture1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The dreaded “Not In My Backyard” reaction of homeowners who
have the temerity to object to neighbourhood changes they never voted for (or
were even asked about) is reaching plague proportions, if you believe what some
urban designers and planners are saying. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">This scourge of the NIMBY is threatening the progressive
development of cities, they’ll allege. The NIMBY is now to blame for everything
from housing affordability to urban congestion. Why can’t young Australians
find a home they can afford? Because of those nasty, selfish NIMBYs. Why can’t
seniors find a suitable property to downsize into within their own neighbourhood?
NIMBYs again, curse them.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/nimbys-make-housing-unaffordable-grattan-institute-20220914-p5bi0y.html">These
comments</a> from Brendon Coates at the Grattan Institute earlier this year are
one example. Speaking at a Henry George Memorial Lecture, the NIMBY was given
the full Kangaroo Court treatment, and found guilty without trial. “NIMBYs make
housing unaffordable: Grattan Institute” roared the headlines. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">According to Coates: <i>“The key problem is that many states
and local governments restrict medium- and high-density developments to appease
local residents concerned about road congestion, parking problems, and damage
to neighbourhood character.”<o:p></o:p></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Let’s take a moment to consider what’s being said here and
try see things from the NIMBY point of view. First, their home truly is their
castle. Their home is the biggest single financial asset they are ever likely
to own. Unlike their superannuation fund, it is within their control to add
value and to enhance its appeal both as a place to live, and for long term
financial security. And unlike their superannuation fund, there are no third
parties in fancy CBD Offices charging them exorbitant fees to manage their
home. A third of Australian households own their home outright, and a further
third are paying it off with a mortgage. The remaining third are renting, and nearly
all of that rental stock is also privately held by individuals hoping to build
on their financial security via an investment in housing. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">As property owners, they are all rightly heavily invested in
what happens in their street and in their neighbourhood. For this reason, they
are legitimately concerned about things like “road congestion, parking
problems, and damage to neighbourhood character” – but according to Grattan,
responding to these concerns is “appeasement” by state and local governments. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">How disappointing it must be for these urban visionaries as
they gaze out at the suburbs from their CBD glass towers, imagining all those ‘McMansions’
being bulldozed in favour of rows of townhouses and unit blocks, having to
confront the objections of homeowners who defy the utopian urban density dream.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Incredibly, the suggestion seems to be that homeowners are
not only being unfairly obstructionist in objecting to changes which might in
their opinion diminish the value of their homes and assets, but that being a
home owner should somehow disqualify you from having a say. According to Coates:
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">“The politics of land-use planning – what gets built and
where – favour those who oppose change. The people who might live in new
housing – were it to be built – don’t get a say.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Meaning that non-owners who have no personal investment in a
neighbourhood are being unfairly <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>disadvantaged
because they are not getting a say about what happens to someone else’s biggest
single financial asset and home?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Talk about egos and entitlement. “Father knows best”
paternalism is a professional trait which happily tramples on homeowners
interests if they dare get in the way of some “expert” opinion about whether
their choice of home and location is “appropriate” or not. In 2019, the City of
Brisbane prevented further development of townhouse style “missing middle”
housing product in low density streets of detached homes. The uproar and indignation
of some professionals at the time was a disgrace. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><i>“The community doesn’t understand the full story because
they are not experts in the field of City design and planning”</i> said one town
planner on industry portal Linkedin. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><i>“It’s concerning that we listen to the general public for
planning in our city rather than the experts who understand growth of a city,”</i>
said another. Wow. Imagine listening to the general public in a democracy? Why
bother when you have unelected experts ready to tell you what’s in your best
interests? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The so-called “townhouse ban” was in response to the
feedback of more than 100,000 residents who <span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">responded to a widespread community
survey “Plan Your Brisbane.” Planning Chair at the time, Cr Matt Bourke, said: “Their
feedback was clear – no more cookie-cutter townhouses on properties that are
intended for single homes.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Neither side of politics will show much interest in pushing for
policy changes which the people who elect them vigorously oppose. This is
called democracy. When Labor Deputy Mayor David Hinchliffe gave the annual Keeble
Planning Lecture in 2017, he observed that:<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;"><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">“If you push too hard for
this [planning] ideal in the face of that [public] reality, it becomes a
political issue in your community, you get defeated and the person who replaces
you invariably has learned the lesson of your demise and will make it much
harder for planners to wield that [policy] stick in their patch in the future.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;"><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">“In public life, if you
don't learn that, you don't stay around long.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Ironically, industry
groups or larger developers who complain about the NIMBY phenomenon can at the
same time be guilty of their own version of zoning protectionism. One look at
how viciously the anti-competitive “retail hierarchy” planning laws (which effectively
prevent further competition within defined trade areas) are fought out in court
shows that self interest is a powerful motivator. “We would object to a
competitor moving a pot plant if we thought it in our interests,” a senior Westfield
operative once said to me. Doesn’t this make Westfield and other large
corporates no different to the home owning NIMBY? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The attacks on NIMBYs
though will continue. They will be accused (and found guilty) of everything
from causing climate change to social inequity. The accusers will be the same usual
cabal of unelected academics, urban “visionaries” and assorted media
commentators whose own homes and lifestyles are no doubt safely protected from
adverse policy changes while they lecture others on their selfish ways. And the
tensions will only increase as competition for space and housing increases. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">How will NIMBYs respond?
That’s best left to Darryl Kerrigan – lead protagonist in Aussie film classic “The
Castle”:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><em><span style="background: white;">Darryl: Tell em to get stuffed!</span></em><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">(He also said: “<em><span style="background: white;">What are you calling an eyesore? It’s called a home ya dickhead!)</span></em></span><o:p></o:p></p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-78727027932597251922022-10-18T18:16:00.000-07:002022-10-18T18:16:38.763-07:00Where we work defines how we get there (and explains a lot about the public transport challenge)<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1_AUZmYGO6ekKWqkUCIzWWCYmZZ4jcUpcAYnjW1xh1t8qT297ftjw6FoIaBNFEHPnmLE_c5dy1fQHNA-AegDmHWDPzRe9U_scd1UA94zVBk2nke2TqsLqxp4Lz0Zntkfv5Dsw8FCcOoWyvCawReAm0zetHsq6FYDjUXoYvuj14cryHSYeI8C1dFgTyw/s332/images.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="152" data-original-width="332" height="184" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1_AUZmYGO6ekKWqkUCIzWWCYmZZ4jcUpcAYnjW1xh1t8qT297ftjw6FoIaBNFEHPnmLE_c5dy1fQHNA-AegDmHWDPzRe9U_scd1UA94zVBk2nke2TqsLqxp4Lz0Zntkfv5Dsw8FCcOoWyvCawReAm0zetHsq6FYDjUXoYvuj14cryHSYeI8C1dFgTyw/w400-h184/images.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br />Where we work has everything to do with the transport
choices available to us for getting there. For CBD and inner-city workers,
transport choices are amongst the widest – including a variety of forms of public
transport (ferries, buses, trains) along with more options for walking and
cycling (thanks to the infrastructure but also because CBD and inner city
workers tend to live close to the inner city).</span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">If almost everyone worked in the CBDs and inner cities, the fantasy
of public transport advocates (“we must get people out of cars and onto public
transport”) could be realised. But the economic reality is that the proportion and
number of jobs in CBDs and inner cities remains low and is likely to fall further
in the future. The greatest majority of jobs are suburban, and these workplaces
are typically not served by public transport. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Evidence of this economic reality is provided by the Census,
for those who can be bothered to consult the data. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The graph below shows total job numbers for Southeast
Queensland by location based on the Census results of 2011, 2016 and 2021. This
is for all jobs – part time, casual and full time, and for all industries. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLlXGwzKj2LE8z3ijY_2Jzau1EuE2yMeb1i_TweWjF7jWL6ZDkPNu86dUWeccwwu4Zzv5PTqJ6ElUrKwUJx391LguznKWl9V_zCwGeCoRDTe1XtqENCJApe65yhggDXtngQh7kbEyKyoNWzXvWzy5J3EYAt0TSinQ0agnEHl1jrC6-FdqJC6iYI4jGWQ/s893/Picture1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="893" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLlXGwzKj2LE8z3ijY_2Jzau1EuE2yMeb1i_TweWjF7jWL6ZDkPNu86dUWeccwwu4Zzv5PTqJ6ElUrKwUJx391LguznKWl9V_zCwGeCoRDTe1XtqENCJApe65yhggDXtngQh7kbEyKyoNWzXvWzy5J3EYAt0TSinQ0agnEHl1jrC6-FdqJC6iYI4jGWQ/w400-h285/Picture1.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">In 2021, Brisbane’s CBD was home to 146,393 jobs. In the 10
years since 2011, this had grown by 30,261 jobs (part time, casual and full
time remember - </span><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span><span style="font-family: verdana;">full time white collar
professionals are a subset of this number). The inner city reached 235,441 jobs
or growth of 49,067 since 2011 while the SA4 statistical area (very crudely
approximating a 5 klm radius from the CBD) reached 364,268 jobs and growth of
77,488 jobs.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The greater Brisbane metro region by comparison was home to 1,194,277
jobs – an increase of 268,888 jobs since 2011. The SEQ region – which forms the
basis of most planning frameworks – reached a total jobs pool of 1,702,408 or a
decade increase of 481,896.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">What this indicates is that the CBD and inner city are
overall a minority destination for the 1.7 million employed in SEQ. Yes, the CBD/inner
city is the largest single job agglomeration, but in terms of its overall share
of jobs by location, we are talking a destination for a minority of the region’s
employed. The CBD accounts for 8.5% of jobs in the region, the inner city for
14% and the wider 5klm ring (for which there seems no scientific or
professional basis other than it’s a popular measure) for 21%. Even at the most
generous spatial definition (a 5klm radius is a 10klm diameter - which
stretches well into leafy suburban areas) there are 8 in 10 people who do <u>not</u>
work in the inner city. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">This lies at the root of the public transport challenge. The
hub and spoke nature of public transport (which tends to serve the CBD and
inner city) works for only around 10% to 15% of people with inner city or CBD jobs
to go to. Increasing investment in public transport networks which reinforce
this hub and spoke structure will not increase the proportion for whom PT is a
legitimate choice (though it will no doubt add to the amenity and comfort of
those for whom it already is). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Adding to the challenge is that, despite decades of
adulation and the bestowment of almost mythical job creation and attraction
powers, CBDs and inner cities are not growing as fast as job markets in metro
and suburban regions. Technology (and now WFH) is eroding the numbers of jobs
in inner city locations, while much faster jobs growth in health and education
industries are fuelling significant job growth in suburban and outer areas.
Finance and property was once (in the 1990s) in the top 5 growth industries. It
is now bottom 5. Health and education lead growth on almost any indicator you
care to consult. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0EdnHuPmzkaK3OHFKxKEjkmLRkdMjXWQWBLHeNKWkS2_OBSSAI3tgIVRAkxTT6oSyf0l0-cuQo3u0x8kDhoC_tCAyhZU5kjHedLv52D2LbtSBHGGRVcHnNQP8z1R_A21rKCkSY-lynowIj-OuSm8mAW2N7e0cJj4xW9LMI4_N8VVD0PwCs3kkhNcs0A/s1050/Picture2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="638" data-original-width="1050" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0EdnHuPmzkaK3OHFKxKEjkmLRkdMjXWQWBLHeNKWkS2_OBSSAI3tgIVRAkxTT6oSyf0l0-cuQo3u0x8kDhoC_tCAyhZU5kjHedLv52D2LbtSBHGGRVcHnNQP8z1R_A21rKCkSY-lynowIj-OuSm8mAW2N7e0cJj4xW9LMI4_N8VVD0PwCs3kkhNcs0A/w400-h243/Picture2.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Another way of looking at this is by what shares of jobs
growth are going where. Over the ten-year period to 2021, the Brisbane CBD
secured 6% of regional jobs growth and the inner city 10%. Metro Brisbane (for
which read suburban business districts, strip centres, shopping centres and
other locations) accounted for more than half.</span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizIVQU0EPLOd3bTTI3FFdTAaab9NU5cm1vHtEqrGmt5Ay9eQUJsyxRc78lW1hX_G3OlRrCuDRSn8i7Qujl1PAhCZYVijWyz_eKcC8KiNl-YrOQoCfCDuKvrqhM5IReVUN016bve-hmAbcmrkK94l4Y8yN1QXt7DTF1HHdp-a3C0oLE1ah7F5TEt3WKZg/s881/Picture3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="634" data-original-width="881" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizIVQU0EPLOd3bTTI3FFdTAaab9NU5cm1vHtEqrGmt5Ay9eQUJsyxRc78lW1hX_G3OlRrCuDRSn8i7Qujl1PAhCZYVijWyz_eKcC8KiNl-YrOQoCfCDuKvrqhM5IReVUN016bve-hmAbcmrkK94l4Y8yN1QXt7DTF1HHdp-a3C0oLE1ah7F5TEt3WKZg/w400-h288/Picture3.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">This geographical pattern of job growth and contraction is
reshaping our cities but sadly so much of our thinking remains rooted in the mistaken
notion that “most jobs are in the inner city.” Inner city professionals in
fields as diverse as public policy, government administration, academia,
planning, property, law, engineering and the like seem to have fallen into the
trap of thinking that everyone must be like them: commuting to inner city
office towers. As the economy grows (they argue), many more jobs will be in the
inner city so to address congestion, we must invest more in public transport
networks designed to carry people from middle and outer suburban homes, to
their inner city workplaces. There is no evidence to support this. The reality
is very different.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">There are things we could be doing. Exploring options around
electric, autonomous vehicles (including as PT), along with more tunnels to
move more suburban traffic (which includes, increasingly, freight). A more
dispersed transport network that will serve an increasingly dispersed future
economy. There are unexplored options around train <span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">stations as work destinations (not
just as places to embark for a city bound journey). Plus there are many options
for the development of mixed use suburban business hubs – suburban renewal
which mixes housing, work and social infrastructure such that shorter trips are
possible and bringing both jobs and services closer to where people live. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Former US President John F Kennedy once famously said: “</span><span style="color: #181818; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt;">The great enemy of truth is very often not the lie -
deliberate, contrived and dishonest - but the myth - persistent, persuasive and
unrealistic. Too often we hold fast to the cliches of our forebears. We subject
all facts to a prefabricated set of interpretations. We enjoy the comfort of
opinion without the discomfort of thought.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #181818; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">That was way back in 1962.
Are we really such slow learners?<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #181818; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: #181818; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-AU; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">(Future analysis of other
capital city jobs geography coming soon). </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-6187080041354841942022-09-04T21:46:00.000-07:002022-09-04T21:46:15.962-07:00Is a housing shortage the least of our worries?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLK8jn_zTUERlWPyoIaesMQ26TXrF_wmojRSfVPPuijQHIZrICdiUT0jcI3gHcIaCS0HucIfe8O9WHJ5IvEqz1v_7o0P7aoOGtk0KtHHZx5XbQ1dgFtLVrT2-n_tT6_pjCUPUmCgA_3GZoW8923VzPvbp7nlTHNnhuOQj2vHCQOWS9NqUSd2YVAwVz6A/s700/e1674136da97275c43499b2d0ca3f82f.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="469" data-original-width="700" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLK8jn_zTUERlWPyoIaesMQ26TXrF_wmojRSfVPPuijQHIZrICdiUT0jcI3gHcIaCS0HucIfe8O9WHJ5IvEqz1v_7o0P7aoOGtk0KtHHZx5XbQ1dgFtLVrT2-n_tT6_pjCUPUmCgA_3GZoW8923VzPvbp7nlTHNnhuOQj2vHCQOWS9NqUSd2YVAwVz6A/w400-h268/e1674136da97275c43499b2d0ca3f82f.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><p>So, the “National Jobs & Skills Summit” succeeded in
what seemed a predetermined outcome: to lift migrant numbers and boost our
population once again. Permanent migration will be lifted to 195,000 per annum,
to address “skilled labour shortages” that are “holding back the economy.”</p></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Set aside that full employment would ordinarily see real
wages grow (a much needed outcome of ‘supply and demand 101’ – and something that
hasn’t happened for a long time), the acceleration of migration and population
growth will have consequences. One of those is the question of housing, with a
number of industry groups and ‘think tanks’ like The Grattan Institute arguing for
<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/everyone-needs-a-place-to-live-more-migrants-mean-we-ll-need-more-homes-20220828-p5bdax.html">measures
to rapidly increase the supply of housing</a>. Their preference is to overturn community
objection to high and medium density housing, which they claim is restricted by
local governments “to appease local residents concerned about road congestion,
parking problems, and damage to neighbourhood character.” I mean, how dare residents
object to congestion, parking and damage to the character of their
neighbourhoods. Bloody peasants! (Incredibly, the Grattan Institute went on to
say: “The people who might live in new housing – were it to be built – don’t
get a say.” Which means that people who don’t live in a neighbourhood don’t get
a say… but that they should? This dear reader is what passes for a think tank
these days). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">A housing shortage though is only one of the challenges. Most
of the additional “skilled” migrant intake will settle in major cities, where
congestion problems are mounting. Our skilled migrants (with a wage floor below
the average wage) will not be flashy suit-wearing financial markets or property
executives, catching shiny new public transport projects to their high-rise CBD
towers from which they can view and rule over the world beneath them. No, they
will be <a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/08/the-immigration-fix-is-in/">“nurses,
teachers, aged care and childcare, hospitality, IT and other skilled workers (who)
are holding the economy back”.</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These
workers and the industries they work in are suburban, which means getting to
and from work with any semblance of convenience, will involve the private car. For
every 100,000 extra people, expect 60,000 to 70,000 more cars on the roads. And
given the lower wage profile of our skilled migrant intake, they won’t be
driving $65,000+ Teslas, much to the dismay of wealthy inner urban Teals and
Greens. No, they are more likely to be driving early model, emissions heavy vehicles
– because that’s what they need and can afford. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Another shortage which is hard to ignore is health care. Barely
a night passes without another news story dealing with chronic shortages in our
health system. Admittedly, some of these shortages are labour related (which skilled
migrants will help address) but others are physical – we haven’t been building
hospitals in pace with population. This <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.MED.BEDS.ZS?end=2016&locations=AU&start=1960&view=chart">scary
graph</a> below from the World Bank suggests that today we have around one
third the number of total beds (private and public) per thousand as we had up
until maybe the mid 1980s. (What happened in 1999-2000?). <a href="https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Australia/hospital_beds_per_1000_people/">Other
sources</a> paint a similar picture. Our lower income earning skilled migrants
aren’t exactly going to be rushing for a $400+ a month private health cover
policy, so you can safely bet a majority will – initially at least – be reliant
on an already stretched public system.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUIf3c94Hg6CxOyAcS5L7DRsKzYPn22L-UhdaHKJhvIj2wFl8nbIDl9dtkyjCex4DP-ol_9BQD-BoYjYhHkEGWW1otjFF6Tj-y1JURHowb7o_WZPBrCPxrGcBqxeeTgNmezf8Z15anqaITr9XfpboDKANnae5MtLfVbPZn01PWU0WiMoNycuum_wMFjg/s497/Picture1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="385" data-original-width="497" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUIf3c94Hg6CxOyAcS5L7DRsKzYPn22L-UhdaHKJhvIj2wFl8nbIDl9dtkyjCex4DP-ol_9BQD-BoYjYhHkEGWW1otjFF6Tj-y1JURHowb7o_WZPBrCPxrGcBqxeeTgNmezf8Z15anqaITr9XfpboDKANnae5MtLfVbPZn01PWU0WiMoNycuum_wMFjg/s320/Picture1.png" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /><o:p></o:p></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Schools too may come under pressure. The public education system
has served Australia well but with all major cities now embracing greater
population density within existing urban footprints, we will need to find more
places for more children in existing areas. Private or independent schools –
for the same reason as private health insurance – are likely beyond reach of
new migrants on lower incomes. I tried to summarise the challenge in </span><a href="http://thefingeronthepulse.blogspot.com/2022/04/a-looming-schools-shortage.html" style="font-family: verdana;">A
looming schools shortage?</a><span style="font-family: verdana;">: “Every extra million people (as for example
predicted for each of our major capitals in just a few short years) will mean
an extra 160,000 students. At a rough average school size of 400 students,
that’s another 400 additional schools for each million of extra population.” Finding
land suitable for new schools will not be easy. </span><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span><span style="font-family: verdana;">Happily, </span><a href="https://theconversation.com/teachers-dont-have-enough-time-to-prepare-well-for-class-we-have-a-solution-175633" style="font-family: verdana;">teacher-student
ratios appear to have held up</a><span style="font-family: verdana;">. The real growth in numbers seems to be
administration and related roles (doesn’t that say something) but the pressure
of rising demand for student places will surely exert itself soon.</span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqBblgT0FY_Mx5Ch12OJBPA9gWFIt7Y8FPaLHFh9ddFIi8imqSPtkqL8LaAwgop5mxEqaeY3yIZB_kmJf8lxboub6rVQtpZdnPHiIxladxYY2DpUPlao-CqiYSq6qSDirxJFD21RGm9yr0rCDr6Su0XnSGyrrQIgsQGZs5sIEwq5ZrZJqtl74EWhz5iw/s473/Picture2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="307" data-original-width="473" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqBblgT0FY_Mx5Ch12OJBPA9gWFIt7Y8FPaLHFh9ddFIi8imqSPtkqL8LaAwgop5mxEqaeY3yIZB_kmJf8lxboub6rVQtpZdnPHiIxladxYY2DpUPlao-CqiYSq6qSDirxJFD21RGm9yr0rCDr6Su0XnSGyrrQIgsQGZs5sIEwq5ZrZJqtl74EWhz5iw/w364-h237/Picture2.png" width="364" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Other more basic services will also be put under pressure.
Australia’s energy grid is cracking, with falling baseload generation not yet
being met by the promise of renewables. </span><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-31/power-supplies-in-australias-biggest-grid-to-run-short-by-2025/101389018" style="font-family: verdana;">The
Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)
is warning</a><span style="font-family: verdana;"> that: “</span><span style="font-family: verdana;">Electricity
supplies are forecast to fall short of demand within three years across
Australia's eastern grid, unless new renewable energy and transmission capacity
is urgently brought online… Central to the upheaval has also been a spate of
coal-fired plant outages, which at one stage in June affected a quarter of the
fleet in the eastern states. AEMO said those supply pressures were likely to
get worse in the coming years as five coal plants closed, taking with them 14
per cent of the National Energy Market's total capacity.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">An increase in skilled migration of course won’t be the
reason the energy grid could run short of energy, but it is another reflection
of policy-induced supply shortages (much like housing) which are now
translating into higher and higher prices (much like housing). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Even one of the most basic commodities of an advanced nation
– reliable drinking water – seems threatened with shortages. In fast growing
south east Queensland, water utility organisations in 2021 warned in an <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/seq-does-not-have-enough-drinking-water-for-booming-population-20210818-p58jqd.html">official
report</a> that: “South-east Queensland will not have enough drinking water to
support its rapidly growing population amid fears the region’s dams will
struggle to supply millions of extra residents.” Building new water storages seems
too politically charged, and governments <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/plan-for-1bn-desalination-plant-despite-premier-minister-split/news-story/f4a89e40cce7606cd397345dc8f0ac99">can
be divided</a> on the best course of action. For many of our major cities, offshore
desalination plants seem the fallback position. If only they weren’t so energy-hungry
and could drain what’s left of the power grid. What, you want people to have
reliable electricity AND reliable water? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">It’s easy to be sarcastic. If only it weren’t true. I am one
of those who believes our nation can readily support more people. In many respects,
we need more people. But we are proving ourselves increasingly hopeless at it. This
is just a cursory scan of some areas where our limited capabilities are becoming
obvious. There are arguably many more. Pumping up the population intake at a
time of critical housing, energy, hospital and even water shortages, without widely
agreed plans to address those shortages, and without a coherent national
settlement strategy and instead just jamming more people into already challenged
and congested major cities, doesn’t seem like planning to me. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Maybe they need to hold another summit to think about it? They
could open it with a reading of what author <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lucky_Country">Donald Horne</a> so acerbically
once said? <i>“Australia is a lucky country run mainly by second rate people
who share its luck. It lives on other people's ideas, and, although its
ordinary people are adaptable, most of its leaders (in all fields) so lack
curiosity about the events that surround them that they are often taken by
surprise.”</i></span><o:p></o:p></p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-11012390280210001252022-07-30T15:40:00.001-07:002022-07-31T00:37:26.827-07:00One million more cars: the suburban mobility challenge<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj33VN4Cldr_L1rI9YIocniBJfJJYqmNx3OzqYGfKiYkwimwVAT9KfUcVWvDOm32uI_GNKCrQLPA9mBz0ejUDaCbhet9zrFjHg5xTt9gameaQpQrJYf5IfSNsgGq_rnMpUbXaRDV1D50bozxixxpE12KawZ2SGvXqD-Bu5-AFY9zCUb1wUXOColJWAneA/s287/Pic1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="179" data-original-width="287" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj33VN4Cldr_L1rI9YIocniBJfJJYqmNx3OzqYGfKiYkwimwVAT9KfUcVWvDOm32uI_GNKCrQLPA9mBz0ejUDaCbhet9zrFjHg5xTt9gameaQpQrJYf5IfSNsgGq_rnMpUbXaRDV1D50bozxixxpE12KawZ2SGvXqD-Bu5-AFY9zCUb1wUXOColJWAneA/w400-h249/Pic1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />“We are excited that we will see another million cars on our
roads by 2041, such is the growth our region will experience.”<p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Yeah, nah. You’re never going to hear a growth booster make
that statement. But it’s true. Or at least highly likely. Another 1.5 million
people, based on the average ratio of cars to people, will mean roughly an
additional 1 million more cars on the roads. Plus more commercial vehicles. Whether
that’s Sydney, Melbourne, or South-east Queensland (where the 1.5 million more people
is the official 2041 forecast) matters little. Each city has been “promised”
very large population gains in a short space of time. With those gains come consequences,
in the same short time frames.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">We are assured that public transport – usually in the form
of heavy commuter rail - will “solve” the rising congestion problem. If you
believe that, please share whatever’s in your Kool-Aid, I want some too. Heavy
commuter rail works well for centralised workforces. Jobs in CBDs and near-city
locations are well supported by this type of public transport. But there are a
number of things to keep in mind if you see a bright future in radically expanded
public transport of this type being ‘the solution’ to rising numbers of private
cars.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">First, CBD and near city jobs represent only around 10% of a
metro region’s workforce. Heavy commuter rail proponents – including many who
support ‘fast rail’ – envisage outlying exurban areas maybe 50 or even 100
kilometres from CBDs serviced by subsidised fast rail than can transport highly
paid professionals to their CBD offices in under half an hour. Which is fine if
you are among the 5% or fewer of people in outer suburbs with jobs in the inner
city. Most inner-city workers live much closer to their workplace, and are
already well served by existing public transport. Of CBD workers, around half
typically already catch public transport. But of people with suburban work
places – who represent the 90% of jobs – this percentage falls to single
figures.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Second, the fastest growing industries producing the greatest
numbers of jobs are health and education. This is going to continue for the foreseeable
future. These are not CBD white collar office worker jobs – they are typically
suburban. Which means the fastest jobs growth in our metro areas is likely to
continue to be outside the inner cities. And accessing those jobs currently is
most conveniently achieved by private motor vehicle. Public transport networks
servicing suburban home to suburban workplace journeys are notoriously
difficult, (with the exception of buses which can make use of the road network but
which still struggle with volumes).</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Then there’s been the whole Covid response with what seems a
semi-permanent move to CBDs as places of work for maybe three days a week, with
white collar professionals using technology to work from home and save themselves
the time, cost and inconvenience of the commute. I still think it’s too early
to call this a permanent change, but what it has done for now is markedly
reduce overall demand for public transport. Cars are in more demand with long
wait lists for new vehicles and very high prices for second hand. Is this a
long term thing or not?</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Some public transport advocates can get quite Bolshie when
it comes to private cars. Some suggest they be banned from CBDs altogether and
roads converted to cycle and pedestrian thoroughfares. Others promote suggestions
that private cars are taxed even more heavily (including through road user
charges) to discourage their peak hour use and to support public transport. The
latter could work if public transport was a genuine alternative. But go back to
my first point: only one in ten jobs of a metro wide region is in the sort of
centralised location where PT is a genuine option. And that ratio will likely
shrink as suburban jobs grow faster. Banning or taxing cars may go down well
with the inner urban professional set who are well served by existing PT networks,
or who can ride their $10,000 carbon fibre racing cycles to work on a dedicated
inner city bikeway, but it would impose significant and unnecessary hardship on
the other 90% of workers.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Also, take into account the
changed nature of the journey to work these days. Some years back in the public
transport hey-day, city workers left homes at a regular time, commuted to their
central office via public transport, and left work to return home the same way.
The 9 to 5 commute is no longer. These days the journey to work can mean
leaving at a different time every day, a school drop off en-route to work, then
gym on the way home and maybe a stop for groceries too. Don’t forget the kids
either. That’s very difficult for public transport.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So, what do we do about the
prospect of another million cars on our roads? Promising to solve this with
visions of fast commuter rail is, in my opinion, unrealistic. Witness the new
Moreton Bay rail link in southeast Queensland. Opened in 2018 at a cost of $1.2
billion (over $100m per kilometre), then Treasurer Jackie Trad promised </span><span style="background: white; font-family: verdana;">“A project like this … will see 600 new trains go from
the Redcliffe Peninsula to the city CBD every week, (and) is a fantastic
initiative for workers in this area.”</span><span style="font-family: verdana;"> Then Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull
chimed in with “Realistically, someone could jump on a train here in Kippa Ring
and use our public transport network to visit the beaches of Gold Coast or
Sunshine Coast.”</span><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span><span style="font-family: verdana;">The trains are running –
every half hour even – just few commuters are using them, nowhere near
predictions. I caught one last month, from Rothwell to the CBD. Near $10 fare for one way. Lovely carriages,
huge platforms. Just empty. Few people in Redcliffe work in the CBD, and if
they want to visit the beach, I can’t envisage the beach umbrellas, eskies and
other stuff making the trip which involves at least one platform change and a
bus trip and, in all likelihood, a two hour exercise. I mean, were they on
drugs when they made these statements?</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But enough
ridiculing (though it’s tempting with so much material to work with).</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">One option could
be to centralise everything – jobs and social infrastructure. Schools,
Universities and hospitals included. Outer suburbs become residential dormitories
and their inhabitants are transported daily to their workplaces or for their
needs, via rapid transit networks, to the city centre. This urban model was
well portrayed in the series of movies “The Hunger Games.” ‘The Capitol’ was where
all the high-quality amenity was concentrated – the best jobs, the most wealth,
the finest dining, cultural and other facilities, enjoyed by a highly privileged
elite whose lives were totally removed from those of the ‘Districts’ where
impoverished worker drones lived. Great movies. Like Sim City on ‘roids from a
planning sense. But maybe not something to aspire to (even if Sydney seems to
be heading that way). <o:p></o:p></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWRegrAOzrDLTuGG4UjH7ic7Ffjmy5kvR9rzNrlzAZBS5MYxsYb32jG4AJvJZii2YGvc4SIhQxbS46hJy8VE9q8U0nhP-AZ4egLMb8KZ_A8hzr5Yb8mdH3rv-Au1LmGxQBMA0TzeUGFgVBmY2-L6vAfnQLWKxZGKtBza5n8eFbPSdlbs2Jhdl99IXIOA/s327/Picture2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="217" data-original-width="327" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWRegrAOzrDLTuGG4UjH7ic7Ffjmy5kvR9rzNrlzAZBS5MYxsYb32jG4AJvJZii2YGvc4SIhQxbS46hJy8VE9q8U0nhP-AZ4egLMb8KZ_A8hzr5Yb8mdH3rv-Au1LmGxQBMA0TzeUGFgVBmY2-L6vAfnQLWKxZGKtBza5n8eFbPSdlbs2Jhdl99IXIOA/w320-h212/Picture2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">What else? We could try slowing
the growth rates. Our rates of projected growth in our three larger cities are,
by world standards, very ambitious. It’s not the quantum, but the speed. Growing
faster than even Beijing or Shanghai ought to ring alarm bells. Realistically, history
and experience shows we are just not very good at it. We have proven more or
less capable of housing a rapidly growing population (though the wheels are
falling off even that cart now) but when it comes to infrastructure like transport,
hospitals, schools – we haven’t much to brag about. Perhaps slowing the
population growth to a safer speed – one we can keep up with - is an idea?</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzEtgrtUZgBkrESjUPY2iL6YY1vmSeyjTEy46SRku0LQNzWk_bsnHPto3Lm4WNfnKcOuFuDpn6MB4rFOUPXgPPszAyk1tAtaGEAuw_CNXToiejMNtJF-1rtMDQTkRaXVx-5eg0tjUEWm88fCQVr2WktJBEtN-bH5YzELlOSBpOCg24HLpO1O0gGX_iyQ/s781/Picture3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="431" data-original-width="781" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzEtgrtUZgBkrESjUPY2iL6YY1vmSeyjTEy46SRku0LQNzWk_bsnHPto3Lm4WNfnKcOuFuDpn6MB4rFOUPXgPPszAyk1tAtaGEAuw_CNXToiejMNtJF-1rtMDQTkRaXVx-5eg0tjUEWm88fCQVr2WktJBEtN-bH5YzELlOSBpOCg24HLpO1O0gGX_iyQ/w400-h221/Picture3.png" width="400" /></a></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">We could also invest as much
energy and thought into the future of work and workplaces. Much regional growth
planning seems fixated on housing, and maybe the provision of schools. But
there could be more discussion about how we support more opportunities for jobs
and industry near where future populations will live. Jobs closer to homes allows
for shorter commutes and potentially reduces congestion caused by lengthy trips,
or trips in one direction. The fast-emerging post Covid economy will be shaped
by tech and new and emerging industries along with high growth industries like
health and education. If we did as much planning for distributed suburban hubs
as we do for inner cities, we might find the investment pays dividends.</span><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">More time thinking about the
alleviating benefits of autonomous, electric travel might also be handy. This
technology is already with us, it just hasn’t been widely deployed yet. Instead
of every million people requiring 600,000 to 700,000 cars – most of which sit
in garages for 20 hours of the day going nowhere – the prospect of not owning a
car but having access to an on-demand fleet of hybrid private-public transport
vehicles is something we could be thinking more about? <o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSIzJpDKRo1TImcJcpmnWldONNFL9TpYHDCubEl1TTvajsL57hTCzhOhVaxU9JkB061dHAym4A7berk8ec5t95gMWFL93ma0C1_ti-AdrmS1SHgV7G9xWBhh3yN00QLol2O0xH7krhF2hhJiEYQtNA8urNpP59sXbfPldVas8Jmz4twI304idVhcew7g/s518/Picture4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="289" data-original-width="518" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSIzJpDKRo1TImcJcpmnWldONNFL9TpYHDCubEl1TTvajsL57hTCzhOhVaxU9JkB061dHAym4A7berk8ec5t95gMWFL93ma0C1_ti-AdrmS1SHgV7G9xWBhh3yN00QLol2O0xH7krhF2hhJiEYQtNA8urNpP59sXbfPldVas8Jmz4twI304idVhcew7g/w400-h224/Picture4.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Buses and hybrids (like Brisbane’s
Metro) could also be worth expanding – on the basis that making use of the existing
road network is a more flexible and much cheaper option than fixed heavy rail tracks,
fixed heavy rail stations and fixed overhead power lines. </span><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span><a href="https://youtu.be/S66dMwdhkII" style="font-family: verdana;">This
handy video</a><span style="font-family: verdana;"> summarises a number of trackless tram initiatives around the
country (though very strangely leaves out Brisbane’s metro which is arguably
far more advanced). </span><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">We could also make better use of
existing infrastructure including the heavy commuter rail network. Existing suburban
train stations are commonly viewed as potential high density housing hubs so
that city workers can commute to their city jobs. But what about viewing these
also as potential destination stations, surrounded by higher density employment
zones? Or schools? Or community facilities? Some stations offer ample
surrounding land for this to occur. Moving away from a centralised view of the
economy and transport to one that encourages dispersed employment nodes around
suburban hubs seems critical to maximising the infrastructure opportunities we
already have.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Way over the word limit on this
one, but a big topic that could deserve a lot more thought and open-minded
discussion. For those interested in delving into some of the evidenciary background, the references below are handy. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">ABS Census on Journey to Work
(2016 data)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0.55.001~2016~Main%20Features~Feature%20Article:%20Journey%20to%20Work%20in%20Australia~40">https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0.55.001~2016~Main%20Features~Feature%20Article:%20Journey%20to%20Work%20in%20Australia~40</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">JAN 2022 UPDATE ON AUSTRALIAN
TRANSPORT TRENDS – CHARTING TRANSPORT<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://chartingtransport.com/category/mode-share/">https://chartingtransport.com/category/mode-share/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The MIT Mobility Initiative, a
collaboration between the School of Engineering and the School of Architecture
and Planning, is designed as a platform to connect all mobility and
transportation activities at MIT, building an integrated approach for the Institute’s
efforts on research, education, entrepreneurship, and civic engagement related
to transportation systems.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://dusp.mit.edu/news/global-resource-better-mobility-systems">https://dusp.mit.edu/news/global-resource-better-mobility-systems</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></p><p><br /></p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-16558318885660538222022-05-15T00:25:00.001-07:002022-05-15T18:27:03.614-07:00Suburbia as we want it. Not how we know it.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiqJ6FGUH88rsbWINpTxxggpIHY9gqf0MKrg_L1hF-SdhRxMyuWtxik0umhAfdvgphyP1C1bOzFs45ovjHcYQK3hQqjvz6Zlj5yMP-pNVKFSn8nZtR1JDXgBWONSkNLch_LN__PExIlGNT8nMDyv2tN7MBc0X-vjkQ59Ou3_yZ6V9oTa8oXYLOwAt1tw/s1280/suburbs.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiqJ6FGUH88rsbWINpTxxggpIHY9gqf0MKrg_L1hF-SdhRxMyuWtxik0umhAfdvgphyP1C1bOzFs45ovjHcYQK3hQqjvz6Zlj5yMP-pNVKFSn8nZtR1JDXgBWONSkNLch_LN__PExIlGNT8nMDyv2tN7MBc0X-vjkQ59Ou3_yZ6V9oTa8oXYLOwAt1tw/w400-h225/suburbs.gif" width="400" /></a></div><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Covid accelerated a global trend that long predated it: an awakening
appreciation of what our suburbs offered, and the potential for their renewal. Heightened
interest in our suburbs should be no surprise - after all, it is typically where
more than 8 in every 10 urban dwellers live and work. But many suburban centres
in Australia lack the readiness to attract and retain talent, or capital. This
underinvestment manifests itself in many guises: abundant ‘For Lease’ signs,
congested traffic, net local job losses, legacy land uses… we know intuitively
what it looks like; it’s sadly too familiar. So if this is much of suburbia as
we know it, what might suburbia as we want it look like? And what will it take
to get there?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://suburbanfutures.com.au/">Suburban Futures</a>’
vision is for progressive cities where quality social and economic
infrastructure is equitably distributed across both suburban and inner urban
locations. It is one thing to say this, but another to describe what it means. And
given the best descriptions are visual representations, Suburban Futures went
about trying to illustrate what we meant by suburban renewal, using 3D renders.
The visual illustration isn’t intended to be definitive – simply to fire
imaginations and highlight the possibilities. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">First though, we needed to describe a “before” renewal
scenario. For this, we engaged a talented young landscape architect who was a
maestro with Sketchup (ask for Emily at <a href="https://www.partnear.com.au/about">Partnear</a>) and went about creating
a hypothetical run-down suburban strip centre that could be anywhere in
Australia. This was a mash-up of many features of suburban strips that are
immediately recognisable: the empty lots, the busy traffic, the visual
pollution, the for-lease signs and vacant shops, the lack of occupancy above
street level, the abandoned saw tooth industrial and other buildings, the
streetscape hostile to local pedestrians and cyclists, a lack of parking, the old
pub with the pokies, the low-end used car yards, a landscape of concrete and
bitumen, pawn shops and vaping stores. It isn’t hard to let your imagination loose,
so we did. Ironically many people have remarked that they claim to recognise
this fictional environment as somewhere near them. It isn’t, but the fact it
looks familiar is sad.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Describing what successful renewal might look like took more
effort. The visuals in the transition from “before” to “after” do much of the
work but what we aimed for was a shopping list of suburban renewal initiatives,
to illustrate the variety of options available to explore. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">In our hypothetical makeover, through traffic – commercial
and private - has been diverted underground via a tolled tunnel. Active
transport (walking and cycling) is provided for, as is local off-street parking
(via a multi-deck paid parking station on the left). The train station (hinted
at in the “before” image, front left) is now integrated into a new building
with retail on ground and co-working offices above. The abandoned saw tooth
industrial sheds (midway back on left) have been re-imagined as a combination
of farmers markets and workplaces, while the structure itself was largely
retained as exercise in adaptive reuse. In the distance (right side) there is a
new TAFE building, and in front of that the pub has added new levels to provide
for short term accommodation. The pokies are still there, but so too a new restaurant
and meeting rooms. There is a pocket park next to a Council Library, and a childcare
centre. In front of these there is a medical centre and also medium density
residential. Health and education uses were deliberately targeted as drivers of
suburban jobs and attraction, along with other community and social
infrastructure (park, library etc) to cement the function of the centre as a
commercially valuable community asset.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">(You can view the mid-point changes by using these two QR
codes – one for the left and one for the right side).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihijhciCXI7MetVxZJW4HOekMU_M-7ZTrZ4INNvy7h9Rq-nhqWrwlfSfpIJXr8F1lVKY5OoA5IjWKZP2sni9_TtiHuO4reLnKeNWkHG4o2uN7DnsnbliQAtSXWDG_GKE0mCRERFA27jKbhT44GZcDBVO_9zxJEoeCWMiaByc__ufaRsUzC5-Byzj2rqQ/s1570/QR%20codes.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="748" data-original-width="1570" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihijhciCXI7MetVxZJW4HOekMU_M-7ZTrZ4INNvy7h9Rq-nhqWrwlfSfpIJXr8F1lVKY5OoA5IjWKZP2sni9_TtiHuO4reLnKeNWkHG4o2uN7DnsnbliQAtSXWDG_GKE0mCRERFA27jKbhT44GZcDBVO_9zxJEoeCWMiaByc__ufaRsUzC5-Byzj2rqQ/w400-h190/QR%20codes.png" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: verdana;">The overall landscape has been softened with extensive plantings
and the overhead power and telco lines placed underground. Building heights are
mostly four to six stories, and designs vary from one to the next. The answer
to the question: “Where would you rather be?” – the before or the after - should
be unanimous.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Getting here is another thing. Results like this require
cooperation between Federal, State and Local Governments in order for
infrastructure strategies and delivery to be appropriate and efficient. One
look at how difficult it’s been to get “City Deals” over the line will indicate
this isn’t easy. State and Local Government planning regimes also need to work
together, rather than pursuing differing objectives for the same precinct, as
can sometimes be the case. A big challenge is removing unhelpful planning codes
and legacy zonings which reflect past uses or precinct history, in order to enable
a wide mix of new uses to take root organically, without needless obstruction. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">For redevelopment to occur, the prevalence of typically
fragmented property ownership is also a challenge. Many will be small sites,
held by private owners with little capital to redevelop themselves, but equally
unwilling to sell into amalgamations. This means that larger sites with
transformative development potential are critical and need as much planning and
regulatory support as possible. As with inner urban renewal, the larger sites
are redeveloped first, paving the way for a range of niche infill sites to
follow, which helps create neighbourhood character. It can be healthy for a
multitude of developers and designers to be active in a precinct, as this
avoids a homogenous look where the entire precinct looks like it was part of a
single design. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">A renewal precinct needs many of these things to happen
first to overcome tenant and community hesitancy. That can mean a different
risk profile to investing or developing in established precincts or markets,
which once again suggests a planning or regulatory environment that helps
mitigate risk in suburban renewal areas is going to be essential. Even then,
the basic financial equations of achievable rents relative to development costs,
needs to stack up. Government agencies prepared to pre-commit (taking some
office space or committing to a library or some other form of activation) can
mean a lot but is often hard to achieve. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">With so many hurdles, many would feel entitled to ask
whether it can even be done. The answer is that we have already done so. Many inner-city
areas, only 30 years ago, were run-down legacy industrial or housing precincts,
subject to increasing signs of urban decay. Like many suburban centres today,
there were empty buildings, a plethora of ‘For lease’ and ‘For sale’ signs, dwindling
capital values and an exodus of jobs and residents. The Federal Government’s
“Building Better Cities” program (1991) began a turnaround which has renewed
the life of inner cities, many which now boast the highest real estate values
and vibrant employment markets. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">It has also been done in some suburban centres. Nundah
Village in Brisbane <a href="https://suburbanfutures.com.au/causes/nundah-village-a-case-study-3/">was
transformed</a> by a $50 million State funded ‘cut and cover’ road bypass tunnel
to alleviate local congestion, $3m in suburban street improvements by the
Council, and a range of planning changes which encouraged new investment. The
result? More than $800 million in new private investment, a fall in commercial vacancies
to under 3%, 1,550 more jobs (many of them professionals, including medical)
and nearly 3,000 new medium and high-density dwellings. Where people were once
ashamed to admit they lived near Nundah Village, it is now seen as a selling
point. That is an impressive ROI. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Suburban renewal is just as economically lucrative as inner
urban renewal has proven. As we look across the landscapes of our cities into
the future, the promise of vibrant, energetic suburban centres offering work
and community facilities closer to where people live, and with amenity
standards equal to those in the inner city, isn’t just an enticing prospect - it’s
a necessary one.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>If you like what is suggested in this article, please visit <a href="http://www.suburbanfutures.com.au" target="_blank">www.suburbanfutures.com.au</a> and sign up for a monthly update. It's free. No spam.</b> </span></p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-28924205347612720972022-04-22T17:12:00.002-07:002022-04-22T17:38:34.938-07:00A looming schools shortage?<p class="MsoNormal"><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMgDdxq5_-QvD0M1ko--4HSBs2ieGbhTvYnuXLB63hbsDty-l0m7NtqmhcLyUltrWY9zsM8HIR_RMo34wtfCxp-kUJdyiYZw-p6oiXPsRFtLEA4buynoAdoROFNpGnJpgtcvk5vUe8wMiALSbJf_GpvAIn_58X7GcKofnCsrkNOBm7NTg4aOSmCEc2kw/s636/3F55BCB400000578-0-image-a-4_1492465910963.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="358" data-original-width="636" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMgDdxq5_-QvD0M1ko--4HSBs2ieGbhTvYnuXLB63hbsDty-l0m7NtqmhcLyUltrWY9zsM8HIR_RMo34wtfCxp-kUJdyiYZw-p6oiXPsRFtLEA4buynoAdoROFNpGnJpgtcvk5vUe8wMiALSbJf_GpvAIn_58X7GcKofnCsrkNOBm7NTg4aOSmCEc2kw/w400-h225/3F55BCB400000578-0-image-a-4_1492465910963.jpg" width="400" /></a></b></div><b><span style="font-family: verdana;"><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></b></p>As our population grows, so too will demand for school
places and new schools. This is going prove a significant driver of demand for
space - especially in suburban centres. But first, old thinking about schools
needs to change to allow for the opportunities that the future presents and to
avoid an inevitable shortage of places in suitable locations.</span></b><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">First, some quick numbers. There are just over 25 million
Aussies in Australia. Of that, some 4,030,717 were school age students enrolled
in 9,581 schools. Based on that ratio, every extra million people (as for
example predicted for each of our major capitals in just a few short years)
will mean an extra 160,000 students. At a rough average school size of 400
students, that’s another 400 additional schools for each million of extra
population. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">In South-east Queensland, official forecasts suggest another
1.5 million people by 2041, which is another 240,000 school age kids in need of
an additional 600 schools. That’s the equivalent of 31 new schools in SEQ each
year for the next couple of decades. Sydney
and Melbourne will face similar predictions. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">It’s not just students. The education sector is a major employer.
It employs 1.153 million people nationally, 62% of whom are full time workers.
That’s nearly one in ten of the national workforce. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">It’s also the third fastest growing industry in the country,
predicted to add another 150,000 jobs in the five years to 2026. Some 93% of
those jobs will be in suburban places. (The fastest growth industry of all in
health care and social assistance, of which 90% will be based in suburbia while
professionals are second fastest with three quarters outside inner cities). The
figures in red in the graph below show the percentage of these jobs in suburban
areas, against the numbers of new jobs predicted (in blue). <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN18fMfPLjqicv0Rn-6D9btOCNaVJporGSc9ALZjaxbO4ki989CQCMRfvvtstoVK_PMIp6ah4N2amRxXqrstWFn9fUH-KkB3gOXBWazpwp4Na9LFrT4hmsJ8hYOAW8cj7IZTiYG1am8tVR9c40gRyIs24xisgeGuAKULqoH6V1fs3JvmaTo9uG-YcTOw/s898/Picture1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="552" data-original-width="898" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN18fMfPLjqicv0Rn-6D9btOCNaVJporGSc9ALZjaxbO4ki989CQCMRfvvtstoVK_PMIp6ah4N2amRxXqrstWFn9fUH-KkB3gOXBWazpwp4Na9LFrT4hmsJ8hYOAW8cj7IZTiYG1am8tVR9c40gRyIs24xisgeGuAKULqoH6V1fs3JvmaTo9uG-YcTOw/w400-h246/Picture1.png" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p>Of those education jobs, the majority will likely be in
school age education, based on current shares:</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVxJxWQEtxmrK_WrQOQ2NHWxU9imBY2WaQIgRb_2MTXg_JjE1C-PEQTE4qECnOKCPChQAHAi1oXv20ksK3h-d27V-I0howYSV94W_3U-n13fnBr374Ng1-ysmFlBcOzerBklRKHIWWGx92AnNx4_VZl9FQyuC5eJOHXQda3wCUayRTkY762sf87HClpw/s553/Picture2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="348" data-original-width="553" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVxJxWQEtxmrK_WrQOQ2NHWxU9imBY2WaQIgRb_2MTXg_JjE1C-PEQTE4qECnOKCPChQAHAi1oXv20ksK3h-d27V-I0howYSV94W_3U-n13fnBr374Ng1-ysmFlBcOzerBklRKHIWWGx92AnNx4_VZl9FQyuC5eJOHXQda3wCUayRTkY762sf87HClpw/w400-h251/Picture2.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Government schools account for 65% of enrolments while Catholic
schools account for 19.5% and independent schools for 15.4%. In the independent
schools area, there are a plethora of smaller schools providing for particular
faiths, cultures, learning needs or other specialisations. For example, more
than half (54.6%) of the independent schools in Queensland have enrolments of
under 500. One in ten have enrolments of less than 50, and a further one in ten
enrol between 50 and 100. One in five have enrolments of 500 to 1000 and only
6% had enrolments above 1500.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So, it’s a very big industry which is growing fast in line
with predicted population growth. It is going to need additional school places
and many more new schools, and nearly all of these will be in suburban
locations. Not all will be large schools though, many with smaller space needs.
How do we meet this demand? How do find the sites?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The traditional school model that comes to mind is the large
primary or secondary school with a cluster of low-density buildings and its own
sporting fields. In most suburban areas slated for infill (to absorb increased
population) there simply are not sites of this size anymore. The government
sector is struggling to find new sites for traditional school models – even resorting
to <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/questnews/southwest/minister-asks-for-more-advice-about-building-90m-brisbane-school-on-flood-plain/news-story/42f5c606b31d08004da2dcf0546be45f">proposing
they are built in known flood areas</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">There are possible exceptions. For example, oversized
carparks provided for at new train stations could easily accommodate a modest
sized school. Being next to a train station for students and staff is both
logical and appealing. In the absence of hordes of commuters embarking at outer
suburban stations destined for CBD offices, why not use the infrastructure as a
disembarking point for school kids? This will require new thinking – something we’re
not good at. (The example below is Murrumba Downs station on the relatively new
Redcliffe Peninsula line, with ample room for a school). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8XiAA6QamsmwtAh6SKspWBT59v4WUQLniji9wcCMiI4T1z0IcNfRJjBJMqL4-45Qpnv9XO1btV1Pd1XYPcpTB9WVfmZFo59MHtH36oV82yytXp48wyiHLs5BlmhQdnKB-GCNsjoPIva80n3EntsxJSMW5vWTH6ylRra6z5HsIUsDj3wmr6QhXvsx0Rg/s1226/Picture3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1226" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8XiAA6QamsmwtAh6SKspWBT59v4WUQLniji9wcCMiI4T1z0IcNfRJjBJMqL4-45Qpnv9XO1btV1Pd1XYPcpTB9WVfmZFo59MHtH36oV82yytXp48wyiHLs5BlmhQdnKB-GCNsjoPIva80n3EntsxJSMW5vWTH6ylRra6z5HsIUsDj3wmr6QhXvsx0Rg/w400-h263/Picture3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Repurposed industrial land also presents a similar opportunity (once any hazardous contaminants are safely dealt with). Many industries have moved out from older style areas with narrow streets and smaller buildings to new industrial estates with b-double friendly road and transport networks and buildings designed to meet contemporary needs. The legacy sites can struggle to find new uses beyond low-grade storage. A wide mix of uses - education included - should be on the list of future possibilities. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, in most cases infill school sites are near impossible
for the traditional large school + playing fields format. There is no reason
however why any number of existing suburban centres – especially those near
transport infrastructure, cannot be re-imagined. Vacated big box department and
discount department stores offer ample space for modestly sized schools,
potentially integrated into the shopping centre. They are typically well
located, provide ample parking, are near public transport and have
traditionally hosted intensive uses. The term ‘shopping centre’ has passed its
use by date anyway; they are more like community centres now, for which uses
like health and education make much sense. This is being done in the US, and
there’s no reason it can’t happen here, other than planning flexibility, political
will and industry intelligence (all three of which are often sadly lacking).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">New mixed-use projects and entire renewal precincts could equally
benefit from the activation that a school provides. Remember, a school of 50 to
100 students isn’t a candidate for a standalone building with its own sporting
fields or gymnasium anyway – they instead could be a tenant within a new or
adaptive re-use project, making use of nearby parks or commercial gyms should
the curriculum require it. Once again, rigid planning controls that limit the
type of mixes allowed in a mixed-use project typically don’t include education
by default – something else that needs to change. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Funding options too are not necessarily the obstacle that
you might think. Given the ravenous appetite of capital and the sheer weights
of money looking for sustainable long-term investments, there is no reason why
institutions won’t enter the education sector as a long-term capital partner on
the non-government side, (potentially even the government side if they could). Where
a non-government school once needed to save capital to fund land acquisitions and
building costs via generations of savings and fund raising drives, we may soon
see a number of these schools enter into new campus arrangements funded upfront
by institutions on very long-term lease back arrangements. Think it can’t
happen? Have a look at how quickly funds have begun entering the private health
space, funding its (largely suburban) expansion? Private capital is already <a href="https://www.westernsydney.edu.au/newscentre/news_centre/more_news_stories/construction_commences_on_charter_hall_and_western_sydney_universitys_westmead_innovation_quarter">partnering
with the tertiary education sector to fund new campuses</a> – why not schools
as well? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The bottom line is that with population growth comes the
demands of that population – and schools are at the top of the list, or very
near it. Our traditional approaches to locating schools will have to change if
infill strategies to soak up growth are to work. This will require some forward
thinking from urban planners and policy leaders. Any delays will inevitably result
in a shortage of spaces, with overcrowded classrooms and limited choices on the
government side, and even more exorbitant costs as demand exceeds supply on the
private side. We made a mess of the housing market by failing to plan ahead. Can
we avoid doing the same to schools?</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">References:<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Education sector profile: <a href="https://labourmarketinsights.gov.au/industries/industry-details?industryCode=P">https://labourmarketinsights.gov.au/industries/industry-details?industryCode=P</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Labour market profile: <a href="https://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/GainInsights/IndustryInformation/EducationandTraining">https://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/GainInsights/IndustryInformation/EducationandTraining</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">ABS Schools data: <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/education/schools/latest-release#covid-19-in-this-publication">https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/education/schools/latest-release#covid-19-in-this-publication</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Independent Schools Queensland: <a href="https://www.isq.qld.edu.au/publications-resources/categories/research/">https://www.isq.qld.edu.au/publications-resources/categories/research/</a><o:p></o:p></p>
<p> </p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-39659882661359702672022-04-04T19:41:00.002-07:002022-04-04T19:44:55.366-07:00 From factory to free-range offices. At a price.<p><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV-oQDRD8bEBy2rAyZAGQ4XmN8SeReu6_86q-2U6MKOt7XA0CSls8SqPtJiERC69cOBZmYSEZKEVamYM4i9qKC3_s1w-FjmUaQ2SRJSl2V1ltDt9q-R2s_qvnsbiPc2wV6ZVkvX9IUCx6dEeNYqVDEYIsOBRDEj4gqa7IArLF5pCo87LjJ2EPwretl2g/s602/Picture2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="342" data-original-width="602" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV-oQDRD8bEBy2rAyZAGQ4XmN8SeReu6_86q-2U6MKOt7XA0CSls8SqPtJiERC69cOBZmYSEZKEVamYM4i9qKC3_s1w-FjmUaQ2SRJSl2V1ltDt9q-R2s_qvnsbiPc2wV6ZVkvX9IUCx6dEeNYqVDEYIsOBRDEj4gqa7IArLF5pCo87LjJ2EPwretl2g/w400-h228/Picture2.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></b></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Last week, leading Australia developer Mirvac called for an
overhaul of what it called “outdated metrics defining office spaces.” The call
was in response to new, hybrid modes of work and new workplace design in the
wake of the Covid pandemic. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Mirvac is right to explore new office metrics. The current
building grades categories, methods of measurement and methods of calculating
vacancies and occupancies are little changed in decades. They have served the
industry well enough but come from an era of factory mode office work, with workers
dutifully lined up at their cubicles, all arriving at the same times and mostly
leaving at the same times. Those days are gone.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">To quote from the <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/mirvac-wants-overhaul-of-office-space-metrics-as-covid-return-to-work-plays-out/news-story/605b07df5b4615adbdbda79e07408d32">story
in The Australian</a>:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">“(Mirvac head of integrated investment) Campbell Hanan
argues for the need for a different system of measurement of office values as
both the nature of work and what draws tenants to buildings has changed.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">“There’s a new paradigm coming now, which is all around
experience, because there is a whole new adaptive way of work that’s
happening,” he says.<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">“He cites British developer Sir Stuart Lipton’s remark
that offices will go “from factory farming to free range”. This will prompt a
change from a sea of workstations to more open, collaborative spaces, which
should be recognised in building values.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">“He says tenants going into next generation buildings are
focused on issues ranging from ESG concerns, employee experience, and
post-pandemic concerns about air circulation and managing spare desks.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">No doubt he’s right. To attract key workers back, the new
workplaces will feature building service upgrades embracing an array of
embedded technology, HVAC and environmental features not seen in typical worker
drone office buildings. There will be more outdoor spaces, garden terraces, lounges,
recreation and exercise areas. The notion of offices with an average of 8m2 or
10m2 per person is gone from this new office nirvana. You are looking at more
like 20m2 per person (a historic average by the way, before we let accountants
define our workspace needs). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">That space is also going to be costlier to build. Added to
the recent general escalation in building costs, and developers of this new
breed of office are going to need to do their sums even more carefully.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But it’s potentially worse for the occupier. A simple back
of envelope comparison suggests the two big variables will be the fit out cost,
and the number of people per square metre. If an occupier moves from a typical ‘A’
grade building with basic fit out and 10m2 per person, to a premium “new”
design for the post covid world with much higher fit out costs and fewer people
to the square metre, it is conceivable that real estate costs per person could nearly
triple. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">(No, in this example no allowance is made for post-tax fit
out depreciation or rental incentives or other deductions. Fit out is simply
divided by 6 on a six-year lease basis, as many tenants are reportedly looking
for shorter, more flexible terms. Very basic and hypothetical numbers for illustrative purposes
only). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVPt3hX6xCKmpHMrVvUJTJAb438B9QXGJ6p8ECJM0jP0okV4IVKPR3ak3mGcpzf0wQzAsYL5sPyoSyesL3tO_Vnp1DKxzzt-EYwxFpVBuUCpDj5qlV8g5MdMRac5tdqPXzwkpe55SAcbN6h8qWsNAj_xIZ5_LA9WKulJJSZXgJYqN0RF6f5hlEv6imSQ/s367/Picture3.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="326" data-original-width="367" height="355" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVPt3hX6xCKmpHMrVvUJTJAb438B9QXGJ6p8ECJM0jP0okV4IVKPR3ak3mGcpzf0wQzAsYL5sPyoSyesL3tO_Vnp1DKxzzt-EYwxFpVBuUCpDj5qlV8g5MdMRac5tdqPXzwkpe55SAcbN6h8qWsNAj_xIZ5_LA9WKulJJSZXgJYqN0RF6f5hlEv6imSQ/w400-h355/Picture3.png" width="400" /></span></a></div><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">How will the market respond to this? Would traditional “paper
factory” tenants with legions of administrative and support staff be comfortable
with a real estate cost per person that is close to half the salary of many of
its workers? Or would they elect to split their workforce into the “worthy”
higher value employees for the new CBD premises, while admin and support staff
are encouraged to continue working from home, or from a distributed low cost hub?</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Does it mean a likely bifurcation of the market, as predicted
by Mirvac’s Haan who said “We’re going to need to value it because there will
come a time when some buildings which offer unique experiences compared to
others, are going to attract valuation premiums.” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Which also means lesser buildings will be
discounted. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">In turn, does that mean new opportunities for tenants to
negotiate rents in less prestigious buildings, leading to lower occupancy costs
for a wider cross section of CBD occupiers who are content with the older style
office factory. Is the problem here that while the older style low-cost office
may appeal to the business, it may not appeal to that business’ workers? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The magnitude of changes are hard to get your head around. Reluctance
to return to the pre covid mode of work seems – for the time being at least – unlikely
to change. Bloomberg City Lab <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-31/new-yorkers-plan-to-work-from-home-half-the-time">reported
this week</a> that: “The average New York City office worker intends to reduce
time in the office by 49% and slash annual spending in the city by $6,730, down
from an estimated $12,561 before the pandemic, according to Nicholas Bloom, an
economics professor at Stanford University.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">(There is a good PowerPoint on the latest WFH research by
Stanford Professor Nicholas Bloom, which you can <a href="https://nbloom.people.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj4746/f/nyfed1.pdf">find
here</a>).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Meanwhile, on the west coast USA, Apple workers are reportedly
rejecting mandates to return to their <a href="https://manofmany.com/living/architecture/inside-apples-insane-5-billion-apple-park-headquarters">$5
billion new, futuristic, purpose built headquarters</a> in Cupertino. That
mandate is hardly intimidating. <a href="https://nypost.com/2022/04/01/apple-employees-say-theyll-quit-over-tim-cooks-return-to-office-push/">According
to New York Post</a>, “Apple CEO Tim Cook is ordering all corporate employees
back into the office at least one day per week beginning on April 11. The
mandate ratchets up to two days per week on May 2 and three days per week on
May 23.” But that’s enough for some to exclaim: “I don’t give a single f—k
about ever coming back to work here…<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’m
going to go in to say hello and meet everyone since I haven’t since I started
and then sending in my resignation when I get home,” the employee wrote. “I
already know I won’t be able to deal with the commute and sitting around for 8
hours.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">All this seems to point to CBDs becoming even more conspicuous
as places for the high-end professional class, who (by virtue of living closer
to the CBD in higher price housing) already enjoy shorter commutes than the
worker drones, and who may also soon be offered more lavish workplaces to entice them back to work in even more
highly valued buildings. Meanwhile, reluctant worker drones who once spent
hours commuting to a computer screen in some anonymous cubicle, may rarely venture
back. CBDs, which were once intensely active centres of employment for everyone
from lowly clerks through to managing directors, may become even more
concentrated centres of privilege and power. No more factory hens but instead free-range
chooks. Plus an awful lot of roosters?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Comedy can be a great tool in drawing out the irony of changes
like this. <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@brit.comedy/video/7044435244933549317?is_copy_url=1&is_from_webapp=v1&q=%40brit%20comedy&t=1649035878189">This
British sketch is a pearler.</a> <o:p></o:p></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br />Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-15533873222259628012022-03-27T19:45:00.000-07:002022-03-27T19:45:53.248-07:00The delusion of the illusion<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Rational, balanced, evidence-based policy left the room long
ago. In its place, it seems all you need now is a clever looking infographic
posted to social media, and you’ll be getting “likes” from thousands of
professionals and community members already persuaded to a particular agenda and
“wanting to believe.” Very few bother to question sources, motives, or logic.
As US President John F Kennedy so famously said: “We prefer the comfort of
opinions without the discomfort of thought.”</b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkkerp9S-bPiKOe-4AZiGzUkjy4ciigG7HGc1l1UzEn8UWtF-pLUXiShQovpXP3t1Qr3pno9HoKCb9IHJMCqioND4FSSFP8pMZM506jN8N11KlhHE6WI1EuxjU8oQSHj9IWmzKQcTXahuvMYRJUzALitj_xrPIe-MC0Zs3kQMnYx3jn61UESA-Kn6DqA/s659/trains.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="659" data-original-width="548" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkkerp9S-bPiKOe-4AZiGzUkjy4ciigG7HGc1l1UzEn8UWtF-pLUXiShQovpXP3t1Qr3pno9HoKCb9IHJMCqioND4FSSFP8pMZM506jN8N11KlhHE6WI1EuxjU8oQSHj9IWmzKQcTXahuvMYRJUzALitj_xrPIe-MC0Zs3kQMnYx3jn61UESA-Kn6DqA/w333-h400/trains.jpg" width="333" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">One recent example is this infographic, posted recently to
Linkedin. Predictably, it’s received a lot of likes and “thumbs up” – including
from some academics who you might imagine are trained to be sceptical. The
infographic is effective and simple. The message is clear: one train equals 625
cars. Trains are good, cars are bad.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The source of the graphic has been cropped by the poster,
but it was easily discovered thanks to Google. The origin was Seattle Subway
(logo cropped bottom right). At first I thought this might be a public transit
authority, but a further search revealed <a href="https://www.seattlesubway.org/">Seattle Subway</a> is an “all-volunteer,
grassroots organization dedicated to promoting high quality transit for Seattle
and the Puget Sound Region on the fastest possible timeline.” So it’s a public
transport lobby group. Nothing wrong with that at all, but being a lobby group
means the infographic is suspect: it’s designed to promote their point of view,
and their point of view only. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Plus, you could also question the extent to which transport
circumstances in Seattle, Washington State, are comparable to Australian
cities. The population of Seattle is 755,000 and it has enjoyed <a href="https://seattletransitblog.com/2019/09/28/census-reports-steady-growth-in-local-transit-use-walking/">reasonable
growth</a> in public transport up until 2018/19. The public transport mode
share was an impressive 23% of trips. But that’s within the Seattle City
boundary. The greater Seattle metro area is home to 3.46 million people. The
public transport mode share for the wider region is just 10%. And like cities
the world over, public transport use has been adversely affected by Covid, and
mode shares may take time to recover. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">That’s enough for the source of our mis-information graphic.
Now to the logic. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">First, it assumes a four carriage train is 100% full, while
625 cars carry 1.6 persons on average. If cars were at capacity, they could
carry 4 or even 5 people each. Meaning more like 250 cars applying the same
occupancy logic. Not 625. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The buses must be big too. 15 buses for 1,000 people means
67 people per bus. Australian commuter buses carry around 44 seated. So the
buses in this mis-infographic are also absolutely chockers. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But maybe the biggest fail in logic is the presumption that
all 1000 people are leaving from the same place and going to the same destination.
Trains are fixed route transport modes, with fixed stations and fixed
schedules. They are the opposite of what we all do – varied routes, varied
schedules, and often multiple destinations in the same trip (school drop off,
work, gym, grocery store etc). The likelihood of all those cars and their
passengers heading for the same destination and taking the same route as the people
on the train, isn’t just remote but fanciful. That alone renders the mis-infographic
closer to propaganda than anything else. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But simple messages are effective, and this flawed logic
finds much support – especially amongst politicians who wilfully champion mega
spending on transport projects that promise much but deliver little. Witness the
latest Federal Budget which promises $1.6 billion toward the cost of a Beerwah
to Maroochydore rail extension. The State Government needs to match that with
another $1.6 billion. Perhaps tongue in cheek, the <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/coasttocoast-39b-road-and-rail-bonanza-to-connect-southeast-for-the-olmypics-upgrade-regional-roads/news-story/f8d77d594c5b283ddf1368f2985ce369">Courier
Mail reported</a> it would be “full-steam ahead on major rail projects” under
the budget. Project enthusiast MP Ted O’Brien <a href="https://www.sunshinecoastnews.com.au/2022/03/27/sunshine-coast-rail-pledge/">claimed</a>
“It will get people out of cars and onto trains.” <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">A couple of years ago I presented on employment trends to
the Sunshine Coast Business Chamber, who were also enthusiastic supporters of
heavy commuter rail. Except that (according to the Census) of the nearly
300,000 total residents, 140,000 were in the labour force and of these, only
2,739 commuted to inner Brisbane where the rail would take them if it existed. 101,000
worked locally (within the Sunshine Coast), 5,000 in neighbouring Noosa, 4,000
in neighbouring Moreton Bay and a further 2,900 in the balance of the Brisbane
region. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So we could see another several billion of taxpayer funds
invested into another heavy commuter rail project to take unimpressive numbers
of commuters via fixed routes to fixed destinations on fixed schedules, when
all about us life is heading in the opposite direction. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">It wouldn’t be quite so bad if there was hope that someone
was doing the practical research work on the future of autonomous, electric vehicles,
more efficient use of existing road networks, micro mobilities, permitting jobs
closer to where people live, the potential of drone delivery to reduce last
mile delivery traffic, or other initiatives, on a bi-partisan and
evidence-based approach. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Maybe what that needs is a clever infographic?</span><o:p></o:p></p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-63704582931614657322022-02-01T15:29:00.000-08:002022-02-01T15:29:27.613-08:00Is suburbia’s global benchmark share of urban jobs 87%?<p><i><span style="background: white; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">“The great enemy of truth is very often not the
lie--deliberate, contrived and dishonest--but the myth--persistent, persuasive,
and unrealistic. Too often we hold fast to the cliches of our forebears. We
subject all facts to a prefabricated set of interpretations. We enjoy the
comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.</span>”</i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">That was from a speech by former US Democrat
President John F Kennedy, while at Yale in 1962 and prior to entering politics.
I came across it during a visit to the Kennedy Presidential Library in Boston a
few years ago. How true it still is.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The myth of the centralised urban economy
is certainly <span style="background: white; color: black;">persistent, persuasive,
and unrealistic. It qualifies as opinion unchallenged by uncomfortable thought.
It is also subject to prefabricated interpretations. It goes something like
this: CBDs are where the majority of people work. Therefore we need planning
that reinforces a centralised economy and we need to prevent people living far
away from CBDs, instead providing more housing nearer to the centre – because this
is where the jobs are and where everyone wants to be if they could. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Attracting more jobs to a metro region is best
done by ploughing more taxpayer dollars into CBD amenity, or into transport
networks that serve the inner city. That simplistic outline crudely (and sadly)
sums up too much of what passes for urban planning orthodoxy.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Census
after census has proven this wrong. In Australia, the CBD share of metro jobs in
major cities is between 10% and 15%. In the smaller capitals it falls between
15% and 20%. (It is also shrinking because the suburban economy is growing
faster than the CBD, thanks mainly to industries like health and education). How
does our CBD share compare on a global scale? Some argue that Australian cities
need more centralisation to be efficient. Compared with what?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Comparing
Australian cities to some global benchmarks is an interesting exercise. A <a href="http://demographia.com/db-intlcbd.htm">study</a> of around 100 cities in
Australia, Europe, Asia, Canada and the USA tallied more than 300 million
metropolitan jobs. Of these, under 30 million were in CBDs. The average was 9%.
But these were mostly 1990 data, and some of the cities were not very
comparable to Australia. So I selected a slightly more comparable list and
updated the data to around 2016 to 2020 numbers. For Australian cities, the CBD
was the 2016 Census SA2 boundary while the Greater Metropolitan area was used
for the whole. While the numbers will have changed, the proportions won’t have
changed much, so it’s useful as a guide. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgDRzrA_AAxOd2SwcGMAuGK5hDfLM6jfHhLwMuQ0qqQzND-y-O5DETm1C7xWjY9BgMyY0JGSnuQagZtkaCx5Xu3BDuTI-TwGPkkDnaVliBb8w_cc89hieEmcr3oqbWZLd2I8GAY6z4WRkfbM24oCePhg2roeWmZ_sH43x5bs5G1uJAPvGITupL_EVPLmw=s1030" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="657" data-original-width="1030" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgDRzrA_AAxOd2SwcGMAuGK5hDfLM6jfHhLwMuQ0qqQzND-y-O5DETm1C7xWjY9BgMyY0JGSnuQagZtkaCx5Xu3BDuTI-TwGPkkDnaVliBb8w_cc89hieEmcr3oqbWZLd2I8GAY6z4WRkfbM24oCePhg2roeWmZ_sH43x5bs5G1uJAPvGITupL_EVPLmw=w400-h255" width="400" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12pt;">Based on
this selection, the average CBD share of metro wide jobs for a city in a modern
western economy is around 13%. Not 30% or 50% or 60% but 13%. Meaning globally some
87% of people living in cities of substantial scale and with substantial urban
economies, do not work in the CBDs but are more likely to be found working in
suburbs.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Sometimes,
in efforts to bolster the numbers to favour the centralisation narrative, the
definition of a CBD is enlarged to something like a 5 kilometre radius – which in
most cities reaches very much into suburbia. While it is true that CBD
boundaries don’t fully reflect the extent of near city employment, it is also
true that metro boundaries don’t fully reflect the boundaries of suburban
employment. Too often the inner city is broadly defined and the outer urban
narrowly defined. Do both, and hey presto you can prove anything with statistics.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">So the
myth of the centralised economy lives on. It is an enduring urban fallacy which
is rarely investigated. Increasingly, government budgets seem to favour inner
cities over suburban domains where the vast majority of a city’s residents – more
than eight in every ten - live, work and play. This is leading to a new class
divide not based on occupation or education, but on geography. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Interestingly, the global data has
also been pointing to an organic decentralisation of urban jobs that preceded
Covid. Academics like Prof Ed Glaeser (Harvard), Prof Peter Gordon (Uni
Southern Calif), Joel Kotkin (Chapman University), Alan Berger (MIT), Samuel
Abrams (Stanford), William Frey (Brookings Institute), Schlomo “Solly” Angel (NYU)
and others have all observed the data on jobs and housing was for some time
prior to Covid saying something very different to the conventional narrative. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“The combination of city growth
declines and higher suburban growth suggests that the “back to the city” trend
seen at the beginning of the decade has reversed,” said Bill Frey. (<i>Big city
growth stalls further, as the suburbs make a comeback</i> – Brookings Institute
2019).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“We found that, on average, only 1 out
of 12 people live and work in the same community; only 1 out of 9 jobs is still
located in the CBD; and only 1 out of 7 jobs is located in employment
sub-centers outside the CBD,” said Schlomo Angel in <i>The spatial structure of
American Cities</i> (Science Direct. Jan 2016).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">“Contrary to perception, the nation is
continuing to become more suburban, and at an accelerating pace. The prevailing
pattern is growing out, not up, although with notable exceptions,” said Jed Kolko
in an article entitled <i>“The Myth of the Return to Cities” </i>(New York
Times, May 2017). Jed was last year appointed Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic
Affairs by US President Joe Biden. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Covid, or more correctly government
responses by way of lockdowns and work from home mandates, has evidently
accelerated that movement of people and work toward the suburbs and regions. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">However, don’t expect the myth to
quickly evaporate. There is much at stake: professional and academic reputations,
industry group agendas, government budgets, plus the beneficiaries of inner
urban favouritism – the higher income earning inner city dweller who is now revelling
in the ownership of the most expensive real estate surrounded by the best
amenity, paid for by taxpayers, most of whom live and work in much less
salubrious suburban or regional environments. Anyway, to actually think about
things rather than look for confronting evidence and think it through, can be
uncomfortable, as JFK observed some 60 years ago this year. And we all enjoy
the comfort of our opinions more than the discomfort of thought.<o:p></o:p></span></p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-88503961999043490332022-01-22T13:36:00.000-08:002022-01-22T13:36:08.022-08:00A long term outlook on housing affordability<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi3VxvZnzRVCZZWAkxISGu8XutdYkVZlXBB7d00R74VQa1LMox3tAaHBxxHM6URHMSwRNm1V16AXfuvhdN8g-codNuGQma0ryTz9j3XN2ZoOnxadMrpxt3mkY7aPXmIdsSdi0IhERFLcJmGtDvc2oyT6B6uXxHa2a_AclEHPzD2CkFhVAR_Mo_xTahOwA=s646" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="646" data-original-width="453" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi3VxvZnzRVCZZWAkxISGu8XutdYkVZlXBB7d00R74VQa1LMox3tAaHBxxHM6URHMSwRNm1V16AXfuvhdN8g-codNuGQma0ryTz9j3XN2ZoOnxadMrpxt3mkY7aPXmIdsSdi0IhERFLcJmGtDvc2oyT6B6uXxHa2a_AclEHPzD2CkFhVAR_Mo_xTahOwA=w280-h400" width="280" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br />So, there’s yet another inquiry into
housing affordability underway. This latest is called “<span style="background: white; color: #222222;">The </span><a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/Tax_and_Revenue" style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="background: white; color: #1f538d; text-decoration-line: none;">House of Representatives Standing Committee on Tax
and Revenue</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #222222;"> inquiry into housing affordability and supply in
Australia.” Chaired by NSW Liberal MP Mr Jason Falinski, it’s getting a
few headlines with statements like ‘half the cost of new house and land packages
consist of state and local government charges.’</span></span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">That’s broadly
about right and as a result this latest inquiry is garnering attention in some
quarters. The debate will flare up again, as will many of the ill-conceived and
doomed-to-fail proposals to address the problem of Australia’s worsening
affordability. Academics, planners, bureaucrats, think tanks and industry
groups will all pile on – and nothing will change.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">There
is nothing new in any of this. Indeed, to reflect on how long we’ve known about
the problems and done nothing about it, is downright depressing. I was once actively
involved with the debate and wrote a detailed report for the Property Council back
in 2007 called <i>“Boulevard of Broken Dreams.”</i> I’ve still got a copy on my
website <a href="https://www.rosselliott.com.au/_files/ugd/d8a420_ab7c9e1acac248d7bc61e44b5a48e109.pdf">here.</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In it I wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><i><span style="background: white; color: #222222; line-height: 107%;">“</span></i><i><span style="line-height: 107%;">Australia is now ranked amongst the least affordable nations in the world
when it comes to home ownership. While much media and political attention is
focused on the role of housing interest rates, these do not explain the very
high costs of housing in Australia. The root cause of worsening housing
affordability lies squarely at the feet of various public policy settings,
identified in this discussion paper. If these policy settings continue on their
present path, there is no question that housing costs will continue to spiral
beyond reach of many Australians. As this happens, dependency on rental housing
will increase. Future generations of Australians will not be able to afford a
home of their own, and will increasingly be consigned to rental housing - and
rising rental costs. Home ownership will be in the hands of an increasingly
elite group of Australians: those wealthy enough to afford a home and those who
bought into the housing market before the affordability crisis reached a
tipping point. Housing standards will fall - due to price constraints - and new
homes will be built on smaller and smaller lots, with cheaper and cheaper
materials to stem the tide of ever increasing government and regulatory costs.
The signs of a deepening crisis are now evident, and industry groups are united
in voicing their concerns that present policy settings will only lead to a
worsening problem. Failure to act now will leave future generations of young
Australians a dismal legacy of housing stress - in a country which by any other
assessment should boast the highest standards of home ownership and
affordability.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Despite <i>Boulevard</i> capturing a
wealth of media, industry and political attention at the time – even being
debated in Federal Parliament in the lead up to the November 2007 election
which saw Kevin Rudd elected as PM – things have gotten progressively worse in
the 15 years since. The three remedies called for back then were: to improve
development assessment processes, timing, certainty and costs; to ensure
adequate supplies of developable land to meet demand; and to fund infrastructure
not through up-front per lot levies which impact new housing most, but through infrastructure
debt and development bonds. Instead, development assessment processes have
become even more mired in asinine regulation, process and uncertainty; land
supply has become more constrained in the major centres where the most growth
is occurring; and infrastructure levies, costs and charges have escalated even further
in the hands of state and local governments, and now also utility companies. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Exacerbating things since 2007 have
been record levels of population growth through record high levels of immigration,
leading to little or no growth in real wages – a situation which some industry
groups are suggesting we should quickly return to after two years of Covid
slowed population growth to near zero and saw real wages grow for the first time
in many years.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The long term picture of housing affordability
since the 1970s has been spectacularly demonstrated in a series of animated
graphs in <a href="https://www.savings.com.au/home-loans/australian-house-prices-over-the-last-50-years-a-retrospective">this
analysis</a>. Thanks to Demographia author Wendell Cox for giving me the heads
up. It’s really very good and highly recommended analysis by a contributor who
goes anonymously by the name “Datamentary”. Great work Datamentary. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The bottom line of all this is that
affordability is now much worse for those trying to enter the market. For those
already in the market of course, no problem. Rising prices are good news. The
divide between wealthy haves and have nots widens with every price increase. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So where does this take us in, say,
another ten or 15 years? Will the penny drop that regulations and taxes are
making things worse, not better? Will we dial back our rate of population
growth and accept the need for working- and middle-class wages to show real
growth? I doubt it. If we haven’t learned by now, we aren’t about to. So, in
all likelihood, those with their feet already in the market will prosper on the
back of rising prices. Price growth will continue as demand outpaces supply,
and as supply is both constrained and then taxed by policies we created and
which we ought to have the wisdom and selflessness to change. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The growing equity of the housing “haves”
will allow them to purchase more second or even third properties – beating off
aspiring new home buyers at every turn. Renting will normalise for a greater
proportion of our population. “Build to rent” as an asset class will grow and
institutionalise the concentration of housing ownership in increasingly fewer
hands. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">In time, the widening of the wealth
divide will reach a point where something will have to give. My bet is we will
see inheritance taxes (death duties) on the public agenda in a bid to
redistribute the concentrated wealth of property ownership. Negative gearing may
likewise be up for radical change. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">This time it won’t just be proposed by
the usual cabal of leftist groups but will find much support amongst an
increasingly large proportion of our society with little prospect of getting
ahead either through wages growth or by participating in the property market. A
wide and growing disparity in wealth and the concentration of wealth in fewer
hands is – history tells us - usually fertile ground for radical, revolutionary
change. The non-owning class may so outnumber the property-owning class that
resistance could be overwhelmed. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I hope it doesn’t come to that. Inheritance
taxes are in my view morally wrong, especially in a society like Australia
which is supposed to embrace egalitarian values, and which until now hasn’t had
much of a class structure. But equally wrong on moral grounds is a society where
those benefitting from their vested interests cheer on rising housing prices at
every opportunity – ignoring the problems for younger families on working wages
- and one that fails to act on the underlying causes of the problem.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">We reap as we sow. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-56512850656606027202021-12-05T15:48:00.000-08:002021-12-05T15:48:10.523-08:00Eyes wide open: the cost of commuter rail<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgwy8LqXgGvyrsLUPNG-JK1fEW7B7whIQNWylt87Fr4bKBbgGck-mGERZ2DIrMGSV_3El3QwUry57ipaqH2X2UfQwAucQVdn-Q6ixtrqtEVqD4OLhWJhL0eR1m7sFU73X3ugNIBzM1bLFtBfLNzQ1VJ1UvA9q-erXcVNb5OmMx477O_SVRk3QmV_QRxPg=s375" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="211" data-original-width="375" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgwy8LqXgGvyrsLUPNG-JK1fEW7B7whIQNWylt87Fr4bKBbgGck-mGERZ2DIrMGSV_3El3QwUry57ipaqH2X2UfQwAucQVdn-Q6ixtrqtEVqD4OLhWJhL0eR1m7sFU73X3ugNIBzM1bLFtBfLNzQ1VJ1UvA9q-erXcVNb5OmMx477O_SVRk3QmV_QRxPg=w400-h225" width="400" /></a></div><br />There are a number of folk getting quite excited at the
prospect of some serious new investment in heavy commuter rail, as part of the
Brisbane 2032 Olympics infrastructure legacy, but also with projects like
Melbourne’s suburban rail loop. There’s no doubt that improved public transport
connections are a good thing. But they can - in the case of heavy rail - be also
very costly. The phrase “be careful what you wish for” seems apt.<p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The Moreton Bay (Redcliffe) line north of Brisbane serves as
a recent and useful example of cost and commuter usage. None of what follows
suggests it should not have been built. But the costs of the project, relative
to its actual use by the community and the ongoing operational costs, are a
reality the taxpayer is entitled to be aware of. If they’re unaware,
politicians and consultants extolling the upsides should also be honest about
the costs, because they are playing with other people’s (taxpayer) money. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The rail line to Redcliffe was first proposed in 1885. It
was finally opened 130 years later in October 2016 (proof that trains really
don’t run on time?) The line is a 12 kilometre extension of heavy gauge, dual
track electrified commuter rail from Petrie to Kippa Ring. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The project cost $1.2 billion and includes six stations –
Kippa Ring, Rothwell, Mango Hill East, Mango Hill, Murrumba Downs, and
Kallangur. That’s $100 million per kilometre, including the stations, or
$100,000 per metre of line distance covered.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">According to <a href="https://documents.parliament.qld.gov.au/tableoffice/questionsanswers/2021/1226-2021.pdf">Queensland
Rail data</a>, the total number of passengers boarding the line via the six
stations in 2018 is a combined daily weekday average of 4,291. That was
pre-Covid, and numbers broadly dropped by a third due to the pandemic. The
pre-Covid numbers are a fairer representation of demand so we’ll use them.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The busiest station was Kippa Ring (989 people boarding
daily), followed by Mango Hill (895) then Kallangur (703), Mango Hill East
(672), Murrumba Downs (562) and Rothwell (470). <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Assume that daily boardings are a proxy for the number of
users (most people who board also disembark as it’s typically a return journey,
and most people do this regularly for their commute). So assume it’s broadly
the same 4,291 people using the line each day for commuting. There are also a
small number using the line on weekends but this is unlikely to be for work so
as a congestion buster, it doesn’t really qualify – heavy commuter rail is
never justified as a weekend recreation service but as a weekday commuter
service. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">If the new line cost around $1.2 billion and is used by
around 4,291 regular commuters, that’s a capital cost of $279,655 per
passenger. That’s a big number. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Plus there’s the operational costs. Prior to Covid, the <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/taxpayers-pay-40-in-subsidies-for-every-rail-trip-as-covid-hits-patronage-20210810-p58hkq.html#:~:text=Just%20two%20years%20ago%2C%20the,surged%20from%20%243.64%20to%20%248.16.">Queensland
Government subsidy</a> per rail passenger, per trip, was $21.15. (This number
doubled when numbers fell in Covid). That subsidy is in addition to the train
fare. So every time a passenger pays their fare, the taxpayer pays an
additional $21.15. Per person, per trip. That’s $42.30 for a round trip, in
addition to the fare. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">(Buses were subsidised $4.02 per person per trip – a
fraction of the cost of rail. Not only are buses much cheaper as public
transport but they also make use of the existing road network, they can be
re-routed in response to changing needs, and can be efficient with fewer
passengers – none of which you can do with rail).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">So for each of the 4,291 regular rail users on this line, the
taxpayer is contributing an average $42.30 per day, or $211.50 per week per
user. That’s $907,546 in total per week for all users. Call it a million dollar
rail fare subsidy per week for travellers on this line alone. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I’m told the famous Sir Leo Hielscher, when head of
Queensland Treasury, used to try hose down politicians’ enthusiasm for heavy
commuter rail projects by telling them it would be cheaper by far to give every
person likely to benefit a free taxi voucher, for life. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Scarily, these projects are often proposed on the assumption
that they will meet a commuter demand from frustrated motorists sick of
congested roads. Which they would, if most of those motorists were trying to go
where the train lines take them – the inner city and CBD. But with more than
eight in ten residents working in suburban locations (not typically served by
rail), this math was never going to add up. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It didn’t stop the pollies though. Said <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/redcliffe-rail-line-100-years-in-the-making-to-be-open-by-ekka-2016-20160113-gm52m1.html">acting
Premier Jackie Trad at the time</a>: “A project like this, that will see 600
new trains go from the Redcliffe Peninsula to the city CBD every week, is a
fantastic initiative for workers in this area.” Even though the overwhelming
majority of workers in the area don’t work in the CBD. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Opening the rail line, then Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull
also <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id:%22media/pressrel/4855491%22">made
a raft of silly comments</a> including that “Realistically, someone could jump
on a train here in Kippa Ring and use our public transport network to visit the
beaches of Gold Coast or Sunshine Coast.” Memo to Malcolm – let’s buy them
airfares to visit Fiji. It would be cheaper. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The same story carried this justification for the line: “The
Moreton Bay region is one of the fastest-growing in Australia with the
population of 375,000 tipped to reach 500,000 by 2031.” True. But this does not
mean they’ll be commuting to the Brisbane city centre for work. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">It added: “Over 80 per cent of people in the region (83%)
use a private car to drive to work each day.” True again, but they do so because
the car will take them when and where the train doesn’t.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Are there better ways around this, which could be explored? One
might be to rethink the idea that suburban rail stations are mainly a place for
CBD-bound commuters to board for their journey to work. Instead, why not
explore options for suburban stations as the destination? A place to get off
because your work in a mixed-use precinct is within a short walk of the station?
There are stations that meet this potential. <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Or what about locating schools next to stations? Would it not
be a good idea to be able to get off the train when the station is incorporated
with the school, for safety and convenience of students and staff and parents. There
would seem to be ample land surrounding stations in some cases. Very large
on-grade areas set aside for commuter parking aren’t always fully utilised. Like
this image of Murrumba Downs station (taken on a weekday in pre-Covid July 2019,
with barely a third of spaces taken). Why not a multi-deck park and ride to
cater for commuters (the cost to park for the day could include your rail fare)
which in turn frees up some of on-grade land for a school? <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiCohUdfu52g8HMAAdKZKm7H5iDawrGYWv-0PDeyfgnWZPuzccBHj9Zu5xNSqE2U6-Tbq1GwwsJtI0wHVDB5gMs4tKZf47kRiv5N-dGg6ShghcY-5U03JNp4GI3s5RuXerrXg_IOq7N6Ji9MQ7K0TPpdl3KupUqqIWQgkOzWbKtWO04OTgAj6Ms4DggGQ=s1084" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="711" data-original-width="1084" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiCohUdfu52g8HMAAdKZKm7H5iDawrGYWv-0PDeyfgnWZPuzccBHj9Zu5xNSqE2U6-Tbq1GwwsJtI0wHVDB5gMs4tKZf47kRiv5N-dGg6ShghcY-5U03JNp4GI3s5RuXerrXg_IOq7N6Ji9MQ7K0TPpdl3KupUqqIWQgkOzWbKtWO04OTgAj6Ms4DggGQ=w400-h263" width="400" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal">Whatever the options, it would seem sensible to evaluate future
proposals for heavy commuter rail through some different lenses. If we are to
add massively expensive heavy rail upgrades to meet future transport needs, it
would be nice to think that we are fully informed of likely costs, realistic projected
user numbers and that all options to maximise the economic and community value
of the stations have been explored.</p><o:p></o:p><p></p><br />Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-55362114941030142352021-10-18T23:15:00.001-07:002021-10-18T23:15:51.511-07:00Populate at peril?<p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqWox3PVbCwF9LDI7fFtDZeCznwYwLLfxkPKtUxJYBGyZcAuw5PbXPkoxj0WAn0xAAeO-ZsZ1SubOTG-assgqxz7I14NrgGfyouZHIG7B2LzaQfVcb4t7xse3xeXB0pkj6enSyZxLD-qEx/s275/migration.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqWox3PVbCwF9LDI7fFtDZeCznwYwLLfxkPKtUxJYBGyZcAuw5PbXPkoxj0WAn0xAAeO-ZsZ1SubOTG-assgqxz7I14NrgGfyouZHIG7B2LzaQfVcb4t7xse3xeXB0pkj6enSyZxLD-qEx/w400-h266/migration.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 12pt;"><p><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></p>We are
fixated on population growth as a positive thing, which it can be. And we’ve
become accustomed to rates of growth which have been absolutely extraordinary in
global terms. Up until Covid turned the tap off on net overseas migration, we
were projecting growth rates for our major cities which put them in the same
league as cities such as Shanghai and Beijing. To think we were actively
planning to grow Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne by close to a third in the space
of just 15 years is quite remarkable if you pause to let that sink in.</span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6v452hVQylxv-tk5jGtvl6HebhAyivK4Xag7wOFY8aL8n8N2Yx_-GCzdlFuzbfjDSOkCnr6LFAJ5Hj51I01nqj4t4HZx_2I5HoEbLIK-7PwHBhUwx9zI2t4BNMZ9W2OTIruN4zhWFQKdI/s595/growth+rates.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="352" data-original-width="595" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6v452hVQylxv-tk5jGtvl6HebhAyivK4Xag7wOFY8aL8n8N2Yx_-GCzdlFuzbfjDSOkCnr6LFAJ5Hj51I01nqj4t4HZx_2I5HoEbLIK-7PwHBhUwx9zI2t4BNMZ9W2OTIruN4zhWFQKdI/w400-h236/growth+rates.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-evergrande-debt-property/2021/10/12/403d48ca-2b1a-11ec-b17d-985c186de338_story.html" style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 12pt;">Recent
events</a><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: 12pt;"> though have shone a different light on how that growth is working
out for China’s mega growth cities, with Evergrande possibly the tip of an even
larger speculative iceberg.</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">There are
warning signs about growth here as well, and while it is good to welcome interstate
and overseas arrivals once again, we could spend a little less time cheering on
the numbers and more time planning for what’s needed to support them. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">There are very
prominent and entirely mathematical consequences of rapid growth that we have
proven to be epic failures at when it comes to planning and delivery. The first
example is congestion. Here in Queensland we seem to salivate at the prospect
of more interstate arrivals fleeing southern cities as Covid restrictions lift.
This will boost demand for housing yes, and will likely mean more pressure on
house prices – a good thing for owners, but bad news for those not yet in the
market. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But consider this: for every 10,000 increase in population, we put
between another 6,000 and 7,000 extra cars onto the roads. Mostly the same
roads and the same capacity as was there 20 or even 30 year ago. Inevitable,
mathetical consequence? More congestion. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">According to
the people at <a href="https://chartingtransport.com/">Charting Transport</a>,
the ratio of cars to population peaks initially at around .75 per person for people
aged mid 20s, then falls to around .55 person for those aged around 40, and
rises again to .85 per person for those aged around 65. So an overall ratio of
say .6 to .7 per person equates to around 6,000 to 7,000 cars for every extra
10,000 of population. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">When you next hear someone predicting another 1 million people
in South East Queensland, just keep in mind that will mean another 600,000 to
700,00 cars. You’d better want to be living close to work by then. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Plans to
increase road capacity are limited, and suggestions ‘more public transport’
will alleviate the issue are mostly wishful thinking. This could work if of
those 10,000 arrivals, a large majority worked in industries or in locations
that work for public transport. That mostly means the city centre. But the
evidence is overwhelming – of a 10,000 increase in population, 60% of those
aged 15 years and over will have jobs, and of them more than 9 in 10 will be in
suburban locations, many in industries like health, education or construction. And
of those of school age and below 15, we seem locked into the habit of being
personal uber drivers for children, using private cars to drop them at their schools
or sporting events. So most jobs associated with that extra population won't be in places capable of efficient public transport because that's the locational nature of those jobs. And unless we change our parental Uber habits, more school kids will also mean more cars on roads. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Another
consequence of growth is played out regularly in the form of strains on our
health system. For every 10,000 extra people, you need extra hospital beds and
related medical services. That’s not going so well. According to <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/qld-politics/qld-health-now-so-sick-medicos-want-newman-back/news-story/a9165bfa2cdfc705609f978c65bee625">recent
comments</a> by Australian Medical Association Queensland President Professor
Chris Perry, “We’ve had ramping for a long time, we’ve had code yellows for a
long time … but it’s getting worse because our population is ageing and our
population has doubled in the last 30 years, and our hospitals haven’t
increased in size, really.” <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">More people
need more of everything in fact. Our <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/hospitals/hospital-resources-2017-18-ahs/contents/hospitals-and-average-available-beds">ratio
of hospital beds to population</a> is around 3.9 per thousand (which is below
the OECD average of 4.3) so just to maintain pace, for every extra million
people, we need another 4,000 hospital beds. For context, that’s roughly equivalent
for four PA Hospitals (a major public hospital in Brisbane for non-Queensland
readers). <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Extra people
also need extra schools, community facilities, even extra prisons. Each
consequence of growth is calculable with a range of existing, proven mathematical
ratios. Yet how much of our thinking is spent on how we are going to deliver on
the consequences of growth, rather than just blithely cheering on the headline
numbers? Failing to match the growth numbers with infrastructure and facilities
to support a larger population actually leads to a declining quality of life.
Maybe we could start thinking more about that aspect of growth as much as the headline
numbers when post Covid growth numbers return?</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-73769199346080195522021-09-28T18:55:00.000-07:002021-09-28T18:55:29.861-07:00Rail station predictions may not be what they seem<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPezY_W_SnkaHvErdobP3c2f9lEReiIybLZ0kSsD99zFT1nVQXFWVqBZtrHidaBsJ-tk-rT1tOSq6pZPNIIYlz2ZkIN39pMMiUC82_KKfiC6CMRxF50gC4NsJZx2f6-fKHIaP0aICv2iGK/s444/rail.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="250" data-original-width="444" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPezY_W_SnkaHvErdobP3c2f9lEReiIybLZ0kSsD99zFT1nVQXFWVqBZtrHidaBsJ-tk-rT1tOSq6pZPNIIYlz2ZkIN39pMMiUC82_KKfiC6CMRxF50gC4NsJZx2f6-fKHIaP0aICv2iGK/w400-h225/rail.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br />There are a lot of rubbery (some plain wrong) numbers quoted when
it comes to public transport use, and it seems that trains and train stations
are among the worse offenders. Perhaps because the costs of maintaining,
operating or expanding network facilities are so eye watering, the promised
benefits need to be overstated?</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Let’s start with some context. Pre covid, there were around 1.5
million people with jobs in the South East Queensland region. Of that, around
120,000 were located in the CBD and this grows to around 200,000 including
inner city locations. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Of the 1.5 million workers, around 60,000 to 70,000 people used a
train as part of their journey to work. Nearly all of those people – 84% in
fact – board or alight at one of the six current inner-city stations. The
busiest was Central Station (roughly half of the station traffic) with around
33,000 people but numbers drop quickly to second place Roma Street (roughly
9500) and Fortitude Valley (nearly 5000). <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Fast forward to some of the promised traffic volumes associated
with the new CBD stations being delivered as part of Cross River Rail. Overall
rail passenger numbers are generally forecast to increase massively. As
Engineers Australia observed in a </span><a href="https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/sites/default/files/resources/Public%20Affairs/Cross%20Rover%20Rail%20Change%20Report%20(QLD%2C%20March%202017).pdf"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">2017
submission</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">: “</span>The average daily user demands stated in Section 4.2 of
the Request for Project Change report equate to a level by 2026 of 208% of the
2015 levels (equating to an average annual growth rate of 6.9%pa over that
11-year period), and a level by 2036 of 289% of the 2015 levels (equating to an
average annual growth rate between 2026 and 2036 of 3.3%pa).”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Cross River Rail website claims the new Roma Street station
will handle a surprisingly precise “46,320 users per day by 2036.” The same for
the new Albert Street station, officially predicted to have 67,260 users by
2036. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">If it were true that 67,000 users were to use the Albert Street
Station and 46,000 will use the Roma Street Station, that would be equivalent
to 113,000 users, or around 95% of today’s total CBD workforce, or almost
double the number of people who currently (pre covid) use the entire City Train
network. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">It is probable the term “users” actually refers to total traffic
volumes, not individuals. The Cross River Rail website isn’t clear on this but
on this basis, you would roughly halve the predicted station “users” to get to
the number of individuals, because most people arrive in the morning and leave
in the afternoon using the same transport mode (the one individual ‘uses’ the
station twice in the same day). This would mean these two stations would be
serving maybe 56,000 people daily. But that is still a very big number; close
to the total number of people using the entire rail network in 2016, and just
from two stations. Either way, the projections appear optimistic, particularly
given recent trends.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Public transport tends to be very much a CBD thing. Across South
East Queensland, according to this <a href="https://www.publications.qld.gov.au/dataset/queensland-travel-survey/resource/b19d84c6-4fcf-4112-916b-74306994c940">Queensland
Government publication</a>, total mode share of public transport is 20%. That’s
for trains, buses, ferries etc. A further 76% use the private car. For the CBD,
public transport mode share rises to 76% and only 21% use private car.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is worth keeping in mind because public
transport’s ability to relieve congestion is highly correlated to the number
and proportion of jobs in the CBD. The numbers have been relatively stable and
the proportion is falling as the economy changes. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The predictions for station numbers could assume heroic growth in
CBD job numbers by 2036 but this seems unlikely: CBD job numbers have been
growing at only around 1% per annum (2011 to 2016) while suburban jobs have
been growing at twice that rate (largely due to rapid growth in health and
education). <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">And yes, our population has grown and is forecast to
increase substantially in years ahead but has this automatically translated
into higher rail passenger numbers? It would seem not. Ten years ago Central Station
had 33,000 people using it daily. According to a special data run by a friend
in the industry, that number in September 2019 (pre Covid) had fallen to around 28,500. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then there’s been the impact of Covid, which
has seen CBD station numbers drop by 30% on pre Covid levels, and inner city station numbers drop by
35% (June 2021 compared to June 2019). Too many people have not returned to
work, and too many of those who have are choosing different means to get there.
This in a state which has escaped lengthy “stay at home” orders arising from
Covid. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The long-term impacts are unknown at this stage but some
things seem probable. CBD job numbers appear unlikely to grow quickly for the
foreseeable future. If many choose to continue to work from home for even one
or two days a week, that will reduce overall demand. Plus, there may be a
continuing hesitancy about use of crowded public transport networks. Meaning the
promised numbers for station traffic will need to be treated with extra
caution. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">On the flip side, there is no doubt the addition of new,
contemporary stations in the CBD will add value to the appeal of train travel
and overall network performance. The new stations will enrich and enliven the
precincts in which they are located. More frequent services and more
conveniently located stations are a good thing for CBD workers who can use the
train. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">For suburban workers who cannot use the train for their
intra-suburban work trips (which account for more than 80% of all jobs), it’s
not so good – especially if your trip includes having to cross one of the many rail
level crossings. More train services will mean more time with the boom gates
down, meaning more congestion and longer journey to work times, until these are
fixed. </span><o:p></o:p></p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7694242867617825659.post-12801285377977338112021-08-04T18:13:00.000-07:002021-08-04T18:13:03.055-07:00Interstate migration: behind the headlines.<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4MkVZiGShx-RfGKLZB_21zz60pgX0xZh4sPSTCSlbBKM2gxj7ZD0Pr0EYfBXHZ0csRm75MJx6Ybtv3no2IOGQakPx9fki8HZ2Sk0fIej2LZ5DRDYbjlw0PEZ0hnNHXQtr7HID3B65E7Q9/s640/Moving.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="640" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4MkVZiGShx-RfGKLZB_21zz60pgX0xZh4sPSTCSlbBKM2gxj7ZD0Pr0EYfBXHZ0csRm75MJx6Ybtv3no2IOGQakPx9fki8HZ2Sk0fIej2LZ5DRDYbjlw0PEZ0hnNHXQtr7HID3B65E7Q9/w400-h250/Moving.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><p>Interstate migration is one of those news stories that media
networks love because of the easy headlines and “human interest” angles. Real estate
people love them too when the numbers help them boost market interest. The
latest data release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics achieved both in
Queensland. But what’s the deeper story behind the headlines? (click on the graphs to enlarge).</p></span><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-PVum7U1XE_LqxhHw5-3Uq5ZfuIENnfcDKEmoQXWxURWzrJmi9N8KxWd8zUtO0Lxfd7oKPBxyGYIEdChjppHlFDTHVTQ-2-cjZ3soMQbE2CXAPJw0CO7z01CrrPuIqFWuWrb6l8d0qVUB/s2048/Graph1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1340" data-original-width="2048" height="261" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-PVum7U1XE_LqxhHw5-3Uq5ZfuIENnfcDKEmoQXWxURWzrJmi9N8KxWd8zUtO0Lxfd7oKPBxyGYIEdChjppHlFDTHVTQ-2-cjZ3soMQbE2CXAPJw0CO7z01CrrPuIqFWuWrb6l8d0qVUB/w400-h261/Graph1.png" width="400" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This graph provides the very long-term view of net
interstate migration to Queensland since 1982. The net figure is the result of
arrivals less departures. A low net figure doesn’t mean no arrivals. It just
means as many departures as arrivals. (For example, the latest June quarter
number of net 7,035 interstate migration to Queensland represents the
difference between 28,500 arrivals and 21,465 departures. You could in theory
have 100,000 arrivals but if matched by the same departures, your net growth is
obviously zero. But it’s the gross number that contributes to real estate transaction
volumes; the net signals an increasing market size).</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I have provided an annualised estimate for 2021, simply to
put the figure into context. We are a long way off setting records. The early
2000s, the mid 1990s and the late 1980s were all much stronger periods. (This
was both because arrival numbers were high and also because departures were
relatively less). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The other thing to keep in mind is that the records of the late
1980s and early 1990s were being set when Queensland’s total population was around
3 million. It is now 5 million. So to have the same impact on growth as 50,000 did
on a population of 3 million, today’s numbers would need to annualise around
80,000 net interstate arrivals. We are a long way from that.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3VHd08DgB88HqO4S7z8znVvkhksoJ9h4myEIGvzLYsZ6Hk20ZaeJl6P5JacEgGt5Bsz6L5VqzlEqUCvmmX4fU4fP4F-D-oaQGWRuvht5elBzb2ytLFCpYgeSdvPE2Fz4TLll_CeRsdxKJ/s2048/Graph2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1346" data-original-width="2048" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3VHd08DgB88HqO4S7z8znVvkhksoJ9h4myEIGvzLYsZ6Hk20ZaeJl6P5JacEgGt5Bsz6L5VqzlEqUCvmmX4fU4fP4F-D-oaQGWRuvht5elBzb2ytLFCpYgeSdvPE2Fz4TLll_CeRsdxKJ/w400-h263/Graph2.png" width="400" /></span></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The next graph (above) charts net interstate migration by
quarter for the last decade, showing the five larger states. Queensland has consistently
seen larger net numbers, driven mostly by net departures in recent years from
NSW but also from WA and South Australia. Victoria’s numbers crashed with
Covid.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh7xp6u4DrLsohwPiU3FckTzOBr8zS3KBqmDOTQhSxefTxNOO1MG8zJYSRdLtQRZFHqPVXNSC9He302FDd16HQzijVg8ytgtmIP80FTd_sDCwdXIctyVP1gIZFJ5Ag4_D5yhQaOo4QcSaa/s2048/Graph3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1380" data-original-width="2048" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh7xp6u4DrLsohwPiU3FckTzOBr8zS3KBqmDOTQhSxefTxNOO1MG8zJYSRdLtQRZFHqPVXNSC9He302FDd16HQzijVg8ytgtmIP80FTd_sDCwdXIctyVP1gIZFJ5Ag4_D5yhQaOo4QcSaa/w400-h270/Graph3.png" width="400" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><p class="MsoNormal">The ABS now kindly also provide data on net migration to
large metro areas. As this graph above shows, Melbourne’s exodus was record
setting in every respect. Some escaped to regional Victorian towns (Ballarat,
Bendigo, Geelong) while many headed out of the state. The Hume Highway north
must have been busy in this period. Sydney has also been losing people but the
exodus has been consistent and not as marked by Covid. The greater Brisbane
region has gained but a sharp upward spike to match Melbourne’s sharp Covid related
decline isn’t evident – higher growth has been occurring in the balance of the
South-East Queensland region. Developers on the Gold and Sunshine Coast might
attest to that.</p></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSefEpuCwIOvDhphKctzUvKyMhIQuGuSAc88zRrFkgDeRvkdo9y6iufjFIOBM5ZrroKf84PqgZAcjaZmz0TtL_XTrNpuBXwWXM_lYdyKZGVK-Zsw7cOYhj5DMDvyniDfso15fhaSe7s77t/s2048/Graph4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1520" data-original-width="2048" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSefEpuCwIOvDhphKctzUvKyMhIQuGuSAc88zRrFkgDeRvkdo9y6iufjFIOBM5ZrroKf84PqgZAcjaZmz0TtL_XTrNpuBXwWXM_lYdyKZGVK-Zsw7cOYhj5DMDvyniDfso15fhaSe7s77t/w400-h297/Graph4.png" width="400" /></span></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Lastly, the source of net migration to Brisbane is the
combination of intrastate and interstate arrivals. Here you can see that for
much of the last five years or so, net movements from within Queensland to Brisbane
were contributing almost as much as movements from interstate to Brisbane. This
wasn’t the case for the 2003 to 2013 period, where more people left Brisbane
for elsewhere in Queensland than arrived. The curious thing about these numbers
is the much-discussed city-for-regions exodus isn’t showing up yet. That might
be revealed in later data but for the June 2021 quarter at least, more people
arrived in Brisbane from elsewhere in Queensland, than left.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The graph also shows the recent increase in net interstate
migration to Brisbane which has the media and boosters excited, but it also
shows this isn’t anything to get overheated about yet compared with previous “booms.”
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The question that needs to be asked about all this is: is net
migration a good thing? To me that depends. If population growth is fuelled by migration
of lower skilled, limited resources migrants, that puts a strain on the receiving
economy, because they consume more services than they contribute to (at least
in the early years). But the arrival of highly skilled migrants with financial
resources can contribute sooner. This is what happened in the late 1980s and
early 1990s – interstate migrants came with a full-time job waiting for them,
and surplus cash from the arbitrage of their house sale in Sydney or Melbourne.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">What happens next after extended Covid city-wide lockdowns will
be interesting. The 2032 Olympics lure and the jobs that could accompany it
could see numbers to the SEQ Region lift in the medium to long term. But as with
all things Covid, the question of what happens next is a lot of guesswork. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: verdana;">If you want to explore all the data yourself, you can
download the raw numbers from the ABS website here: <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/latest-release#data-download">https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/latest-release#data-download</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></o:p></p>Ross Elliotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10328089395446040400noreply@blogger.com0