Wednesday, July 29, 2015

How the hangover could look now that APRA has shut down the party


In the fine tradition of public policy in Australia, we leave things until it’s long overdue. By this time, instead of a manageable slow-down, it often results in a screeching halt followed by a fast u-turn. APRA’s recent moves to stem the flood of finance to speculative housing investors could be a case in point. What might this mean for investors and for the industry generally?

Some years ago, Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens expressed caution that low interest rates, which ought to lead to an increase in housing supply, might simply lead to a run up in prices. See for example this analysis of mine back in 2009. This year, in a vindication of those earlier fears, he described the market in Sydney as ‘crazy’. You don’t get stronger hints from the RBA Governor that things are a bit out of control than that. 

In December, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority started to tighten the screws on lending, and it made further moves this year targeted more particularly at investors, who for the first time account for more than half of new lending for housing. Banks are responding by quickly tightening their lending criteria and some – AMP Bank for example – have now announced they have banned loans to property investors, effective immediately. Others are offering loans to investors at higher rates of interest than to owner occupiers. How might this play out for the legions of speculators who have invested in the so-called ‘generational shift’ to apartment lifestyles?

It’s not a pretty scenario and it’s all happened before, but for the ones with short memories or without the benefit of having been through a serious downtown before, here’s how it can pan out. 

Think of the investor who’s been sold the story of a generational shift to inner city apartment living. They see demand rising for this type of product and lifestyle and figure that this is a good market to buy into. They purchase a $500,000 unit ‘off the plan’ with a $50,000 deposit, when the banks are happy to lend 90% of the value. They may be thinking that, by the time settlement is due within maybe three years, that unit could be worth maybe 10% more, so their equity will have gone from $50,000 to $100,000. Happy days. Plus they’ll be getting a rising rental return, at least in line with CPI. After all, this is how - and where - everyone wants to live, isn’t it?

Fast forward three years to settlement time. The banks are no longer prepared to lend 90% but our investor’s bank will still lend to 80% of the valuation. That valuation has come in a few months before settlement and the bank now has a piece of paper that says the home unit is worth $450,000. Values have fallen because there is a very large volume of similar stock on the market at the same time, in roughly the same location, and there are more sellers than buyers.

So as far as our investor’s bank is concerned, they will now lend 80% of $450,000, which is $360,000.  The investor now needs to fund the remaining balance of the contract price of $450,000 ($500,000 less his deposit). So our investor needs to find another $90,000 to make the settlement. They could walk away and lose their deposit, or they could try argue their way out of the contract, but both aren’t exactly appealing options.

They could sell the apartment but that would mean taking a loss in that market. They could rent it as planned but vacancies are high (there’s a lot of similar product out there) and rents have fallen (supply over demand). So their return on renting is nothing like they imagined it could have been. Plus, by now, interest rates have risen so the gap between the rental income and the repayments is much wider than they banked on. It’s called ‘negative’ gearing for a reason but there’s a limit to how much most people can lose.

If our investor decides to sell and realises $450,000, they still have their transaction costs to take into account so their net realisation may be closer to $400,000 on the ins and outs of the deal. They can pay out their $360,000 loan and have $40,000 left. This looks pretty ordinary if they had to sink $140,000 of their own savings into the deal. That $140,000 is now worth $40,000 – not including any losses on the cash flow if they’ve been renting it (or trying to) for a time.

This is a worst case scenario and I am not predicting financial Armageddon. But I do come across plenty of people in the industry who seem to be in denial that this is remotely possible. Yet it has happened before and may well happen again.

Who’s to blame if this does eventuate? Accountants and some financial advisors, who promoted investment property deals because on paper they look tax effective, will have questions asked of them. Accountants love things that look good on paper but in my experience aren’t very good at understanding property. Urban planners and policy makers that promoted high density living at the expense of other options paved the way for the supply-side response. Developers have done pretty much exactly what most metropolitan planning schemes called for – extensive high density urban infill. That’s precisely why so much of it has been approved. And they have met the market price points. The fact that market was driven by investors buying into a financial product not owner occupiers buying into a lifestyle product, isn’t the developers fault. The banks too should shoulder some blame but good luck trying to make that stick. And the investors who could lose out will be busy for looking for anyone else to blame but themselves.

And what’s the impact on the industry if this happens? That will depend on whether any problem - if it occurs - will be contained to a certain type and style of investor housing product, or if the property industry generally suffers the hangover -  even if large parts of it weren’t part of the party in the first place. This is a question that’s going to occupy a lot of minds in coming months and years.






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  30. Finding a genuine provider of financial instrument is very challenging but we are certified Financial Instrument providers in United Kingdom. Presently, we only focus on BG/SBLC,DTC IPIP, MT103/202 GPI CASH TRANSFER, MTN, LOAN for Lease and Sale transactions. However, our Lease BG/SBLC is 6+2% and Sale at 40+2%.

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  31. We are direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC, DTC IPIP, MT103/202 GPI CASH TRANSFER and MTN which are specifically for lease, our bank instrument can be engage in PPP Trading, Discounting, signature project (s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges, Real Estate and all kind of projects. We do not have any broker chain in our offer or get involved in chauffer driven offers.

    We deliver with time and precision as sethforth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable, below is our instrument description.

    The procedure is very simple; the instrument will be reserved on euro clear to be verified by your bank, after verification an arrangement will be made for necessary bank documents and stock testing expenses, the cost of the Bank Guarantee will be paid after the delivery of the MT760,

    DESCRIPTION OF INSTRUMENTS:

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    4. Age: One Year, One Month
    5. Leasing Price: 6% of Face Value plus 2% commission fees to brokers.
    6. Delivery: Bank to Bank swift.
    7. Payment: MT-103 or MT760
    8. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days.

    We are ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me direct. Email: sweeneymich70@gmail.com

    Regards,
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    Email:sweeneymich70@gmail.com
    We Offer Lease and Purchase BG,SBLC,DTC IPIP, MT103/202 GPI CASH TRANSFER AND MTN

    ReplyDelete
  32. We are major/Direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC, POF, MTN, Bonds and CDs and this financial instruments are specifically for lease and sale.We are one of the leading Financial instrument providers with offices all over Europe. 
    We are major/Direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC, POF, MTN, Bonds and CDs and this financial instruments are specifically for lease and sale.We are one of the leading Financial instrument providers with offices all over Europe. 
    we always deliver on time and precision as Set forth in the agreement. You are at liberty to engage our leased facilities into trade programs, project financing, Credit line enhancement, Corporate Loans (Business Start-up Loans or Business Expansion Loans), Equipment Procurement Loans (Industrial Equipment, Air crafts, Ships, etc.) as well as other financial instruments issued from AAA Rated bank such as HSBC Bank Hong Kong, HSBC Bank London, Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt, Barclays Bank , Standard Chartered Bank and others on lease at the lowest available rates depending on the face value of the instrument needed, Our Terms and Conditions are reasonable. 

    DESCRIPTION OF INSTRUMENTS: 
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    2. Total Face Value: 10M MIN to 50B MAX USD or Euro 
    3. Issuing Bank: HSBC, Deutsche Bank Frankfurt, UBS or any Top 25 . 
    4. Age: One Year, One Day 
    5. Leasing Price: 4 1% 
    6. Sale Price: 32 2% 
    7. Delivery by SWIFT . 
    8. Payment: MT103-23 
    9. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days 

    We are ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me direct. 

    Name:May Gary 
    Email:algecoglobalfinanceplc@gmail.com 
    Skype::algecoglobalfinanceplc    
     

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  37. We are Providers of all types of BG and SBLC with the best workable procedures. Our BG/SBLC ranges from MT799, MT760,(Both two way confirmation), MT103/23, MT103 (Both can be one way confirmation and two way confirmation) in USD and EUROS. Issuing Bank ranges from Top world 25 banks with face value ranging from 1M EUROS/USD to 10B EUROS/USD

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    Regards

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    Email: dimi.conradi1970@gmail.com
    conradi.dimitrij@bk.ru
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  38. Dear Sir,

    We are broker firm in London-UK, we have direct Provider of BG/SBLC specifically for Lease and purchase, The provider is tested and trusted. We have been dealing with the company for paste 20 years. Interested Agent/Lessee should contact us.

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    Best Regard
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    ReplyDelete
  39. Do you need Finance? Are you looking for Finance? Are you looking for finance to enlarge your business? We help individuals and companies to obtain finance for business expanding and to setup a new business ranging any amount. Get finance at affordable interest rate of 3%, Do you need this finance for business and to clear your bills? Then send us an email now for more information contact us now via (muthooth.finance@gmail.com) Call or add us on what's App +91-7428831341

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  40. We are a Finance Industry Company professionals with over 15 Years Experience and a focus on providing Bank Guarantee {BG}, Standby Letter of Credit {SBLC}, Medium Term Notes {MTN}, Confirmable Bank Draft {CBD} as well as other financial instruments issued from AAA Rated bank such as HSBC Bank Hong Kong, HSBC Bank London, Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt, Barclays Bank , Standard Chartered Bank , Credit Suisse e.t.c. at the lowest available rates depending on the face value of the instrument needed.

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    Purchase Instrument of BG/SBLC : 32%+2% Minimum Face Value = EUR/USD 1M
    Lease Instrument of BG/SBLC : 4%+2% Minimum Face Value = EUR/USD 1M

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    Management.

    For All inquires Contact Us Below MR : DAVID ANTHONY.
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  41. We offer certified and verifiable bank instruments via Swift Transmission from a genuine provider capable of taking up time bound transactions.

    BANK INSTRUMENT PARTICULARS

    Instruments :Fully Cash Backed, Fresh Cut Bank Guarantee(Standard ICC format)
    Age :One (1) years and One (1) day
    Rate :Leasing: 3+2, Purchase: 32+2
    Currency :USD/Euro
    Bank :Top A Rated banks
    Amount :As Advised by Beneficiary
    Intermediary Fees : Two Percent (2%) of Face Value payable by Beneficiary
    Tranches : As per agreed tranches schedule
    Delivery : Swift MT799/MT760
    Payment : Swift MT103 (Wire Transfer)

    Contact Name: Alex James
    Email:signetukfinanceplc@gmail.com
    SKYPE:signetukfinanceplc@hotmail.com

    ReplyDelete
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  43. FINANCIAL AGENT LIMITED provides a full financial planning service to both the commercial and domestic markets. At IQ FINANCE PLC we believe that financial planning is about two things: creating wealth and protecting wealth. These two objectives are at the heart of everything we do. And, as a member of FINANCIAL AGENT LIMITED Services, we give you a small-company service but with a large-company set up – the best of both worlds.  
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  44. Dear sir,

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  48. Dear Sir,

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  49. My name is DARREN CRAIG I'm a financial Consultant of a reputable firm Operating out of the United Kingdom
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  50. GENUINE BANK GUARANTEE (BG) AND STANDBY LETTER OF CREDIT (SBLC) FOR BUY OR LEASE AT THE BEST AVAILABLE RATES
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  53. My name is Mohammed Ahsan I'm a financial Consultant of a reputable firm Operating out of the United Kingdom
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    Below is what my Sender can offer.
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    2, MT103 wire transfer
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  55. Dear Sir,

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  56. Dear Sir,

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  57. Hello,

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    ReplyDelete

  58. Dear Sir,

    We issue BG/SBLC, BANK DRAFT, MT799 BLOCK FUND, MT103 , BCL and LC , MTN, DTC, EUROCLEAR, MT103 Cash transfer /Collateral, TT (Telegraphic Transfer)New updated etc


    Issuing banks moves first with RWA and for bank draft, issuing bank issues softcopy in favor of the applicant.

    Contact me if you are in need or any bank instruments,Bank letter of any kind and confirmation email bank to bank.

    Name: Paul Harrison

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  59. Dobrý den, opravdu potřebujete financování a půjčku na dokončení vašich projektů, domů, podnikání, nákupu pozemků, nemovitostí? nyní je k dispozici řešení pro získání půjček. Poskytněte vám rychlou půjčku do 24 hodin bankovním převodem na váš účet. Půjčka začíná od 5 000 Kč do 150 000 000 Kč s úrokovou sazbou 3 %. Splacení půjčky začíná za 1 - 30 let. Pokud opravdu potřebujete vážnou a naléhavou půjčku, kontaktujte mě hned a budete spokojeni, email: Horkyjiri55@gmail.com

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