We’re like Texas I can tell…

On Queensland Day, I thought it might be interesting to compare how we’re travelling relative to a couple of US States – California (which we are told we are much alike) and Texas (which I think we should try to be more alike).

Direct comparisons are never really all that helpful unless we accept that there are many minute influences that together shape a place’s zeitgeist, demography, economy and culture. They cannot be measured but together make up the complex DNA of place.

So with that big caveat in mind, how do we shape up?

Population growth is one area that has often seen Queensland – especially South-East Queensland – compared with California. In the last five years, Queensland’s population of 5.7 million grew by around 11.5% or nearly 600,000 people. For a long time, we shared a similar reputation for population growth with California. Both have been seen as ‘sun belt’ lands of opportunity.

But that’s no longer the case – California has in fact been shrinking. In the last five years, California’s population of 39 million has been in reverse – losing over 200,000 people. That’s only a half percent loss but it is a turnaround – the first loss in the history of California.

Why? Many argue that Californian’s have had enough of the woke mind virus that has taken hold of ruling Democrats and Hollywood elites. A Kamala Harris word salad might sound inspirational to a self-identifying enlightened progressive but to many others, it’s just dribble.

Where are they going? Texas seems to be one place, growing through a mix of natural increase and interstate migration. Their natural increase in the last ten years contributed 48% to their population growth - which suggests a younger population that isn’t overburdened by taxes and ridiculously priced housing (more on this further on). In Queensland, our natural rate of increase contributed just 21% to population growth. Texas in the last 10 years added 2.5 million people, reaching a total 31.7 million. Their rate of growth – at nearly 9% per annum, is comparable to Queensland’s.

A state that is growing so fast must have elevated housing prices, like we do, correct? No. In fact the Texas median multiple (house price relative to median income) is just 3.6.  In Queensland, it is 9 times, and in California it is 7.5% - notwithstanding the fact California is losing people. Think about that – California is shrinking but has an affordability problem. Texas is growing fast, but house prices are only 3.6 times incomes. The equivalent here would be house prices around $400k.

Texans are building more homes, faster – so supply is keeping up with demand, plus their supply isn’t taxed as punitively as it is in Australia. Texas new housing units per 100,000 residents are around 722, while in Queensland it is 560 and California just 258.

Various local, state and federal taxes are responsible for over a third of the cost of a new house in Queensland. In Texas, it is reportedly around 5% and up to 10% in the highest taxing cities. California sits around 30% - much like us, due to (also like us) their overlapping development impact fees, environmental compliance, planning approval costs, affordable housing mandates (yes these make housing more expensive), energy efficiency and regulatory delays.

Economic comparisons based on Gross State Product are another common metric. Queensland’s GSP per capita is $93,000.   Texas is also $93,000 but that’s in USD. So adjust for currency, and theirs is $132,000 in Australian dollars. But California, with so many tech oligarchs and as home to multiple global technology brands, wins this race with a GSP per capita of US$110,000 or $156,000 in our currency.

But that wealth is not shared in California. Their unemployment rate is 5.3% - compared with 4.2% in Queensland and a very similar 4.3% in Texas. California also has some of the worst homelessness in the US – with around 182,000 people homeless or 46 homeless per every 10,000 people. In Queensland it is estimated at around 35 and in Texas, it is estimated to be only around 10.

California, argues globally recognised urbanist and author Joel Kotkin, has tortured its middle and working class, destroyed its housing markets by pursuing dogma in planning policy, and generally squandered economic opportunity, driving young families away while leaving behind a society increasingly characterised by a homelessness problem at one end and the mega wealthy at the other.  

Queensland is thankfully spared the Californian disease. Where we once may have identified with the sun kissed beaches, surf culture and easy going lifestyle of California, our future lies in a different direction. For my money, we should take a closer look at Texas for some future inspiration.

I’m choosin Texas, can’t you tell?